Coronavirus: Used car prices set to soar as coronavirus hits new car production

Published 18 March 2020

Used car prices could be set to soar after the coronavirus led to a slow down in new car production.

With workers and key elements of the supply chain hit by the COVID-19 outbreak, experts reckon drivers will be forced to turn to used cars with increased demand pushing up prices of secondhand motors. 

While the UK is only in the second ‘delay’ stage, countries like China – where the outbreak is thought to have started – have seen new car sales fall off a cliff, with demand down 79 per cent at the worst of the outbreak. So bad is the situation in Asia that the China Association of Auto Manufacturers is calling on the government to help. 

Now senior data analysts are warning buyers that used car prices could rise and demand outstrips supply.

Neil King, senior data journalist at the Autovista group, says that new car supply issues of any kind often lead to increased demand for used models.

King said: “The outbreak will particularly reinforce the attractiveness of models that are subject to long delays and deliveries, with a positive impact on their values.” 

He went on to say: “Delays to new-car deliveries would result in fewer tactical, short-term registrations as dealers would only be able to sell the cars they have available. This would also increase or at least stabilise residual values of younger used cars because their volumes are reduced.”

At this stage, King doesn’t expect the new car market in the UK to suffer in the same way as China. “Many of the most important model launches in 2019-20 are all produced in Europe. They are therefore less likely to be harmed by a lack of personnel or shutdowns in Asia, but could still be derailed by components shortages and/or if similar measures are imposed in Europe.”

Meanwhile, Andrew Mee, head of forecast UK at CAP HPI said that the used car market had already got off to a good start: "We saw the strongest February since 2012, which saw overall used car values to increase by 1.1%. A result that was significantly higher than the five-year average for February of 0.2%."

And he confirmed: "A fall in registrations this year could, in fact, help support used values in the long term.”


gavsmit    on 18 March 2020

I was already prepared to keep my 5 year old car for a lot longer anyway, thanks to obscene new car price inflation in recent times.

This is the longest I've ever owned a car for - and as it is still working fine, I've resigned myself to spend the extra on a major service, new tyres and brakes to keep it going for possibly another five years as a two fingers up to the greedy car manufacturers and their ridiculously high prices.

Old.Roverboy    on 18 March 2020

I was already prepared to keep my 5 year old car for a lot longer anyway, thanks to obscene new car price inflation in recent times. This is the longest I've ever owned a car for - and as it is still working fine, I've resigned myself to spend the extra on a major service, new tyres and brakes to keep it going for possibly another five years as a two fingers up to the greedy car manufacturers and their ridiculously high prices.

But manufacturers were and are beginning to "Price In" the fines for being over the Co2 limits with new antipollution measures

The penalty amount is determined by different level of violations over the minimum CO2 emission target. For 2012-2018, the penalty settings are:

  • €5 for the first gram over the target
  • €15 for the second g/km over the target
  • €25 for the third g/km over the target
  • €95 for the fourth g/km and subsequent

After 2019, violation per g/km will be €95.

2020 mandatory 95 g/km 57.5 long-term target

gavsmit    on 19 March 2020

I understand your point but as a consumer it's the car manufacturer's problem to overcome regulatory issues and price their products competitively to ensure continued sales, just like other regulated industries do such as the energy sector. If that regulation becomes unrealistic, the manufacturers need to confront politicians to discuss and overcome those issues.

I can't help but wonder how an entry level small car from the supermini class such as the Peugeot 208 ever got to now cost almost £16k (or over that if you have metallic paint like most people do or are forced to by availability) - how could that ever be considered as good value for money?

I was looking to replace my car but the price has gone up by over 50% for the comparable model and spec in a relatively short space of time which is excessive, despite new challenges on the car industry from emissions regulation. That car is also full of equipment I don't want like pointless 'tech' that I'll never make full use of and is just another expensive thing to go wrong outside of warranty.

And I'm talking about cars from the small 'bargain basement' end of the market here - if I was ever tempted to look at a more prestige car to buy with my heart as well as my head, I'd have to remortgage my house!

   on 19 March 2020

I got a value form 'We Buy Any car" a week ago. I got an email yesterday saying the the guaranteed 7 day period had expired and so out of interest I got another valuation.
The result? A ten percent fall in value.....

Royboy1    on 3 November 2020

Regarding we buy any car this is good if you want quick sale but be warned your original price is not what you will receive when you go along the person will knock off up to around £700 off price quoted and don’t listen too the high pressure emails saying your time is running out take the price now I had a vw transporter I got offered only £18000 for it at 2.1/2 years old ignored the offer and when time ran out they emailed me back upping there offer by £800 I still ignored this as I knew that would be knocked off on inspection

I sold my vehicle private for £24000 so be warned quick sale yes low price yes or hold out sell private then go buy your new wheels it worked for me good luck everyone and watch for scams keep yourself safe and cover everything before letting vehicles go ,,,,

   on 19 March 2020

Not sure who the experts are. We were thinking of changing our car this summer. Now there is no chance. Anyone with money in the bank will be hanging onto it with the future uncertain and not many will take on finance while job security is a worry. If you have to get a replacement car I'm sure they will be desperate for your money as most will hold back on such a purchase right now

Westbury33    on 19 March 2020

Far too many dealers with massive stocking loans on depreciating assests that are saleable to a smaller customer base. I dont see how "Neil King, senior data journalist" has managed to deduce his findings.

It may be a reassuring read for dealers and those that have just purchased or about to, but the reality is, its unlikley to stop the inevitable reduction in used prices. Who exactly is going to be out buying one of the 224,979 sub three year old cars listed on a well known internet based car sales platform today?

"Coronavirus: Used car prices set to soar" hmmm, I think we can file that under wishful thinking.

Edited by Westbury33 on 19/03/2020 at 17:38

JBbgp022    on 20 March 2020

This is not a great time for car sales, but we have to believe that normal circumstances will resume. Possibly time to get a bargain though as I dont see car prices going up. Used or new.

Edited by JBbgp022 on 20/03/2020 at 07:46

aethelwulf    on 20 March 2020

The time frame of 'non normal' life is expanding by the day. Who knows? No one so it is all a gamble and I keep my cars for years , current Mondeo 15 years old ( 2L petrol estate) and it works fine. It is worthless to anyone else but not me and it MOT'd and easy to service. I also have a 10 year old Piccanto. No way I would buy a new one at the silly prices they want. I have run cars for 20 years successfully so a way to go yet. But commentators grumble about the fines re CO2. We let politicians ruin our life on the climate change rubbish whilst the rest of the world do not do anything. There is only one planet we live on and we are paying . Totally unfair.

Scot5    on 21 March 2020

To echo the above about selling a car. We were in the unfortunate position the other day of wishing to sell a car. WeBuyAnyCar gave me a shocking price. Let's put it this way, whilst WeWantAny car quoted £16300, WeBuyAnyCar quoted £10700. Evans Halshaw said they were no longer buying cars and Arnold Clark Quoted £17400 but said we couldn't book an online appointment. The quote was valid for 7days but when we went to dealership, they said the quote had elapsed after 3days and then made a derisory offer akin to WeWantAnyCar. I can see why companies do not want to spend cash buying cars right now, but all this talk of prices being higher. Based on what? Theory rather than true life I suspect. Either the experts are not living in the real world OR what might be more true, is that those companies buying cars are using CoronaVirus as an excuse to make an absolute killing on the deal. They're hoping to buy the car for £10700 and sell for say £19,000? If they do buy the car for £10700 then they can afford to reduce that selling price somewhat so I do not see why used car prices will rise. I pity anyone who finds themselves in a position where they need to sell a car rather than want to sell a car at the moment because the dealers are acting like vultures.

Edited by Scot5 on 21/03/2020 at 16:58

   on 21 March 2020

Absolute rubbish.

Will Green    on 22 March 2020

Covid 19 and Car Finance

In 2017 86.2% of private cars were bought on some kind of lease. Billions are lent in the form of PCP's every year. Carmakers are banks that happen to make cars, their finance arm lends money so that customers can afford their cars. The new car can be a loss leader, the money's in the finance, repair and servicing. As long as there’s some equity at the end it kept rolling. If It's cheaper per month to borrow to buy new why buy used?

There is a storm upon us. Many people will be out of work, if they have already paid half of the car's value they can take the keys back to the dealer and walk away. Or they can try to sell the car privately and get some equity back. If you lease hire you may not have another. The car will always be the first thing to go.

All these scenarios mean that there are going to be millions of 2-3 year old cars, that people can no longer afford to finance or to buy and are no longer worth selling privately. They are in negative equity, but the loss lies with the lender. This is the saving grace of leases (for the customer). So what is that going to do to used prices, dealers, manufacturers?

No-one is going to want a 2018 BMW X5 on 21's if they can only afford a 2010 Kia Rio. So there will be demand for cars in the £1000-£2000 bracket. There will also still be demand for newer vanilla cars.

Millions of nearly new prestige cars will be sitting rotting because if they were released the market would saturate depressing used prices further, there would be fewer very wary buyers, basically a death spiral.

This happened in,1988-1990 and again in 2008-09, this will be far far bigger. This will be carnage and could easily bring down franchise networks and manufacturers.

   on 25 March 2020

Makes no sense - basic supply and demand rules apply here, there will be a LOT less demand for cars especially currently people can't even drive far due to lockdowns.

I am now working from home so only need to use the car for grocery shopping once a week - people are not looking to spend £15,000 on a second hand car that they can use once a week.

Clive Corbyn    on 29 March 2020

"Used car prices set to soar". what utter nonsense. No dealer is going to want cars with Mot's steadily running out, on their books.

Edited by Clive Corbyn on 29/03/2020 at 18:04

ColB    on 30 March 2020

This article is as over optimistic as a certain President's pronouncements. The industry will be terrified by the prospects of defaults on their leasing book (shown as an asset in their balance sheets) which will inevitably result in their own credit ratings being downgraded. Leases will be extended in order to give customers leeway on payments and there will be many many cars handed back or repossessed. These will need to be disposed of so the secondhand market will be saturated. Taken as a whole the reliance on PCP to shift cars is looking more like a Ponzi scheme and everyone, manufacturers, dealers and customers are going to get a very painful bite where they sit down.

   on 30 March 2020

Don't believe this for one minute .Second-hand car dealers are stuck with overheads and staff costs with a full forecourt and No punters .
Even private sellers are in trouble financially last week I was offered a DB9 black 60k on the clock full AMSH 08 plate facelift glass key model for 20k by a pilot with no work .When I turned it down after a test drive he dropped it another 2k .
People will be desperate to sell soon so will car sellers. Nothing and I mean nothing is selling but overheads are still there, and when new car production fires up again they will be banging them out on overtime.
So sorry not a chance this article is right .

Car King    on 1 April 2020

I just cannot see this being correct. Once movement is allowed a new car will be the last thing "most" people will be thinking about. Possibly the cheaper second hand market might pick up if people have lost their lease/PCP cars and just need a cheap car to get from A to B.
For once I am actually in a possible position to gain from this by still having a job and having some planned cash ready to buy a newish 2nd hand car. I for one will be calling round dealers and asking for at least £4k off a c£24k car, 2019 BMW 5 estate or similar. Given the current state I think it would be a brave dealer who would refuse £20k in cash once this is over. At the end of the day they will have paid c£21k for this so really only a small loss but would bring in much needed cash. They don't bite then I will simply move to the next dealer. Prices may rise but only once things get back to almost normal and loads of people are looking for new lease or PCP cars when there is none. The fact factories have closed is irrelevant as there is no demand anyway and once we do get back to normal there will be a lag in demand which gives time for things to start up again. Stupid article as quite simply dealers will be desperate for cash once things start moving again.

Rob Rage    on 2 April 2020

I totally agree with all the comments listed here. This article is completely inaccurate, the whole car sector is in complete decline now with all the Covid measures in place for the world coast to coast.
In the weeks and months to come car sales will suffer massively for the new car sector and especially the 2nd hand car market due to lack of demand and lack of money in general for lots of people in 2020.
Car dealers will be wanting to get rid of many cars off their books at a loss as they will want the money back in their accounts to weather the slow storm ahead that might take a year or two before consumer confidence returns fully.

Cars are the 2nd biggest investment most people take so its the first thing to suffer the most when times become hard on finances. Peoples mortgages or rent comes first. Cars can be down graded or lost so that families and people can survive the storm that is not going to pass by quickly. It will certainly be a buyers market in 2020 to pick up a bargain so long as you have the cash and your job to still buy with confidence. Give it a month or two from now and watch the big drop happen! Why on earth this article predicts an increase in values is laughable, sorry! Watch the news, its not good out there now and its only going to get worse when it comes to money and jobs. . . . That's what off sets the market here.

   on 8 April 2020

Older cars will be in demand up to £5000 as people turn away from new over priced vehicles and not wanting to take on finance cars are a money pit dropping hundreds of pounds a week in some cases buy an old car for cash run it till it’s scrap and then buy another that’s the way to do it and if you look after it you can get many years out of an older car and you don’t have to worry about the odd scrape or dent and no finance company or car dealer ripping you off and most modern cars can do very high mileage with no problems but the dealers try to brainwash people to go for low mileage cars so don’t be conned

conman    on 9 April 2020

My 17 year old (90K) diesel Fiesta is still running great, passed MOT's every year, and returns 60mpg, with Co2 of approx 110 grms. so £20 road tax.I bought the car new and have looked after it, with regular mini top up charging the battery twice a year the battery lasted 15 years yes 15 years. on it's original back brake linings, and second back exhaust box. Throw in a couple of sets of tyres and a regular service every 18 months and this car has cost peanuts to run.

targen    on 12 April 2020

Dealers are currently stuck with full forecourts of used cars , which naturally depreciate at 20% per annum..... having had no sales for as long as this lockdown lasts , they will be desperate to shift this stock...I predict , should you wish to buy a used car , you will be able to get a bargain..dont forget the auctions havent been operating either , and there will be a back log of cars that have reached the end of their lease/pcp/motability deal during lockdown coming onto the market.

paul30661    on 13 April 2020

Dealers are currently full of stock that's not selling but you try and get a discount. I think rather than leaving the office to work from home, they've gone to live in cuckoo land.
I want to buy, I'm ready to buy, but I don't need to buy because of the lockdown. I'll just wait.
and normally when I wait to buy, I manage to talk myself out of it completely (wants v's needs no longer applies).

   on 13 April 2020

I was looking to buy SWB low mile S class. Called a few dealers and they said no reduction for cash on the sticker price £20-25k. Now either they have the biggest crystal ball in the world, or a hot tip from Warren Buffett or something....but from where I am sitting they are in lar lar land. If I was in their position I would be dumping premium large cars at 80% of cost while I could get it.
And talking of Warren Buffett, he told the story about the family in Home Depot, he observed them discussing whether they could afford the more expensive tin of paint, and he then saw the same family pulling out the store car park in a brand new mustang. He said the auto market is the next bomb waiting to go off! Different country, same issue, and now in even worse circumstances. And the banks will be withdrawing facilities to used car dealers quicker than you can here them say “cheap motor that”
I will just wait, post on the net I am looking, and pick up a car at the correct value, anybody any ideas what I will end up paying?

Pianist    on 15 April 2020

Currently considering purchase of two ,three year old Mercedes gla. Phoned car dealers and all saying no discounts on ticket prices. I have cash and am surprised on their stance currently. Plan to sit and wait for them to struggle and re-visit.

Car King    on 15 April 2020

given the recent comments I suspect this will be a case of who blinks first between buyers and sellers/dealers.

I have cash and looking to buy. Dealers have stock but wont reduce their price. the difference this time round is no one knows if lockdown will restart which is a high possibility where we have some movement then lockdown again so people will be a lot less likely to jump in as there is no real "need" for a new car. Once dealers find people are not jumping in then they will be quick to lower their prices. I have been looking at c£20-£25k one/two year old BMW, Volvo's etc for around 6 weeks and there has been no, yes no reduction on internet prices in this time. I think dealers rely on people who do not do any research and simply jump into purchases. There is no way I will be buying any car at this price without a 10-15% discount.

Car King    on 17 April 2020

I am actually starting to get fed up with the car press and their constant chat about how prices will remain flat or go up. Who are they kidding. Trying to up sell for dealers now?? Funded by the trade maybe with an agenda??
Lets be real. Yes there will be some people looking for new and used cars. Why would new be an issue??? yes plants have closed but so has everything else. there would only be a shortfall on new cars if they were actually still taking orders on new cars which in March were down c50% and will be less again in April and once we start moving again I am sure there will be a lag in people actually starting to order again so the plants will have time to build up again. So conclusion there will be no delay on a new car or well it will be no different from what it was before all this. That said I am convinced demand will be down. Who after this will be wanting to take on new finance or have a new car sitting doing nothing as there is a chance we will be in and out of lockdown for quite a while.
Second hand well this is slightly different as I think there could be demand at the lower end c£5k and under if people are handing back lease/pcp cars etc. They may hand back due to not being paid so cannot afford a new car as above or they just simply dont want to commit given the current situation. They will still need a car so might look for something cheaper that they can own. Either way I suspect there will be over supply in hand back vehicles c1-3 years old as these have been continuing while we sit in lockdown but there is no movement at the other side. When we come out the auctions will be full of the last two (or more) months hand backs. The finance co's will be desperate to shift these and the dealers will have no cash to buy them and if they do will be trying to drive the auction price down to save cash. Yes again the auction co's and CAP etc will try to talk the prices up as they make commission on the sales but in reality buyers will be down so prices should fall. Current stock is sitting doing nothing but these 1-3 year old cars are watching their warranties reduce so again, if I am looking at a 1 year old Volvo v90 or BMW 5 Series touring at say £25k after this in three months there is no way I would be paying the same price it was before it kicked off. Sure there will be a few desperate people who might buy but this time I hope and suspect people will be holding out for prices to fall. Dealers are currently being either very clever or stupid not considering offer on current stock as when this is over they could be looking at a much larger hit. The week I asked a dealer for a best price on a c£24k car around a year old and they would not entertain any discount. Seems crazy to me that they probably could have sold it for c£20-22k and broken even. They then would have a deposit to reserve and been looking at some cash coming in the min this is over. Now they risk this continuing longer, the stock depreciating anyway and then struggling to sell once it is all over. I for one will not be paying asking price for anything once this is over. I suspect others will do the same so just watch prices fall in the coming months once these greedy dealers start needing cash to survive.

Newcastle Boy    on 18 April 2020

Simple economics and remember you can't buck the market. 'Stock markets have plummeted because? Have a guess! Yes Johny at the back.' 'Sir, nobody is buying shares.'

'Right, well than boys and girls what will happen to the car market?'

Edited by Newcastle Boy on 18/04/2020 at 00:26

romford4    on 26 April 2020

Can always rely on the HJ comments sections for a good laugh. Full of keyboard warriors trash-talking about playing hardball with dealers. Yes, there will be deals to be done, but listening to some of the chat on here, I can see dealers simply not wanting any kind of deal with some of you because there’s other punters out there who aren’t complete dicks.

   on 27 April 2020

talk about trying to influence the market with total trash , thousands with cars they can no longer afford because they lost there jobs, they will sell them to balance there credit get them repossessed due to inability to pay but "honest" john says there will be a massive demand by the c******d workforce to buy the thousands of cars that few can actually afford , and car dealers will happily store the thousands of said cars in there lots waiting for a declining market to pay MORE for there stock get a grip

romford4    on 27 April 2020

But, most of the population is still in work, many on furlough, lots getting refunds on cancelled holidays etc, not having much in the way of outgoings during lockdown. Once things start getting back to ‘normal’, many of these people who haven’t been able to splurge on new toys for a while will feel that they ‘deserve’ a new car. When my wife’s X6 is handed back next year, no doubt some ‘aspirational young thruster’ with zero financial sense will finance it as a used purchase and so the cycle continues.
I think we under-estimate the stupidity of some of our population. For everyone that tightens their belt and starts being a bit more frugal, there’s an idiot who wants to appear minted, not sensible, coz YOLO!!!
At the other end of the market, the Faceplook Marketplace traders masquerading as private sellers will still be shifting their dodgy sub £2k rubbish to the gullible.
The best thing that could come out of all of this is that punters stop extending themselves for PCPs on cars that would otherwise be unaffordable to them. But that’s not human nature in the UK, and naive Billys would rather stay living with their parents at the age of 30 just so that they can drive a German motor on a new plate. As already said, folk these days want to look minted, not sensible.

Car King    on 29 April 2020

Seems like the majority of people disagree with you "romford4". People looking for deals following years of car price increases are not "dicks" as you put it. Let me guess the industry where you or your wife work......motor trade per chance...

If you think things will be back to normal and people are going to spend holiday refunds on cars you are crazy.....the world is currently in a financial crisis it has never seen before. yes some will remain in work but look at BA today making 12,000 redundant. Only a fool would think things will go back to normal anytime soon so whether or not you agree with peoples tactics I can say I doubt very much if there will be any demand for cars coming out of this. A report yesterday says used car wholesale prices are down 11% and that retail prices lag slightly behind so looks like our "dick" price reductions are coming soon. lets wait and see over inflated car prices fall. Unfortunately the greed of makers and dealers has driven prices up over the last 10 years so with luck the greed of the consumer now will help drive them back down. Happy motoring!!!!!

romford4    on 30 April 2020

^^ I'm not in the trade KC, not for over 20 yrs anyway. And I'm not saying there's not going to be deals. On the contrary. However some of the folk that post on here are going to walk into a dealership with a certain 'approach' and be surprised when they're given a simple "No, goodbye!" by the dealer who knows they can sell the same car, for the same price the following day to a punter that isn't a total Billy.

Agree that car prices are crazy these days, but that's largely in conjunction with PCP... hike the price of the car to allow for manufacturer deposit contributions, 0% interest, and take advantage of dummies who are only interested in the monthly payment, not the price the car.

I think it's false to say that there'll be no demand though. For every worker that's lost their job and doesn't need / can't afford their car anymore, there's someone else who has gotten a new job further from home and needs a car. For every PCP'd-up driver that wants to return their car early, there's 20 more who aren't in a position to early terminate as they're short of the 50% mark. Even for those that can terminate, unless they're planning on catching the bus, they're going to want another car and with little savings, it'll be back on to financing again. (The 'novelty' of taking the bus, with drunks, stoners, folk with bad personal hygiene, and variable service wears off quickly). Sole-traders & small Ltds that quickly took a Mitsubishi Warrior on lease to show 'big face' will suffer, but most of these idiots shouldn't be running a business in the first place if they're that irresponsible with their finances. The car industry is swings & roundabouts, winners & losers, sinkers & swimmers... always has been. I've friends in the trade and contrary to popular belief, they are much more sensible with their money than many of the people they sell cars to. Enough savings kept aside to weather the Corona storm, and driving stuff like 10 yr old Mondeos means that monthly payments aren't a concern.
Earlier this week Vardys were arranging the delivery of over 1,000 cars that were bought remotely since the start of lockdown. Independents are complaining on dealer forums that they're selling cars but can't get enough stock in. Most of the "greedy dealers" aren't making the huge profits you seem to think they are - certainly not in the independent used market anyway. The big profits are made by the big players flogging finance to the gullible (with a shiny German car thrown in to facilitate it). If it's these guys that you're hoping get a kick in the balls then get in the queue behind me!
If anything comes out of this, I hope it's that people learn to live within their means and learn to put a bit aside for a rainy day (our French & German neighbours are much better at putting some of their income away every month). Then I remember that we live in the UK where people want to look minted, not sensible. I don't think that mind-set is likely to change anytime soon unfortunately.

Andy Lane    on 1 May 2020

25% of people have missed paying of bills, with 20% missing rent, poll tax or telecoms.
Not looking good for big ticket purchases.

paulinuk    on 2 May 2020

I am always curious.why.a small car and a bigger car ,that the bigger car can cost twice as much , two smaller cars are double the materials ,like 10 wheels two engines gearboxes glass etc ,or am.i bonkers?

Car King    on 4 May 2020

interesting point. Sure there will be added costs as parts are larger etc but not double or more. Again just another rip off for big business. Far too many have lost their humanity.....the corporate machine which just trundles on. Box says we need 55% profit but we are at 49%.....answer.... lets pay off xxx number of people which will bring the profit back to 55%. We can then work the ones left harder and they will do it as they will be fearing for their jobs.....but don't worry we will just pour out loads on health and wellbeing to kid on we care but when the buck stops its all smoke and mirrors.

romford4    on 4 May 2020

If it's bargain transport you want, consider a new motorcycle. The further north you go in the country, the more bikes are a leisure pursuit instead of practical daily transport. If those dealers don't start heavy discounting to shift them quickish, the stocks they got in in March risk sitting over the summer and then not selling. Could put a few dealers out of business. In 2009 £4k bought you a new middleweight like the Bandit 600S. With inflation, that's now £5400.... which is where I'd expect stuff like the MT-07, Tracer 700, NC750 etc to be coming down to.

I fancy a new Tenere 700, but at around £9200 they're silly money for what they are. Might be better picking one up in the autumn on a cheaper PCP offer.

Car King    on 5 May 2020

Well there is a surprise...not. sales down 97% in April and most of those were in process prior to lockdown.
The factories have started back although not at full pace and supply chains opening again.......however still no customers and those who are about are branding cheeky discounts. Suspect most on here will be right and in a month or two there will be some heavy discounting going on. Looking at holiday forums, most who were refunded are either re-booking for later this year but most seem to be booking 2021. If correct this means there will be no extra for car purchases as the forums seem to be indicating re-booking prices have increased. After all of this seems most people want a break (even at increased cost) rather than a new car. starting to see some really cheap broker prices eg V90 for less than £25k new........Don't know if pre reg but even now that is a good saving.

   on 6 May 2020

For anyone considering taking a HIGHER priced car on any finance , if you buy now your car will be worth LESS as car buyers are refusing to buy at a fair price. and if you decide to pcp or pch a car and have NOT been infected with covid 19 then you are massively putting your loved ones future at risk

as they will be held fully responsible for any outstanding finance on that INCREASED price tag on your used car if god forbid you are infected, with over 30000 deaths recorded so far in the UK and no end in sight then only people with huge arrogance would risk it

make your current car last until this is over ,

DONT let sites like this think you are better buying now rather than later

its cheaper getting you car fixed for a few hundred £s for another year than risk your loved ones incurring thousands in debt

Car King    on 6 May 2020

I agree with the above comment and to be honest I think it is very irresponsible of the UK press to be constantly reporting that prices are going to risk and for people to get in now before they do. Ever article is the same, even today the express are in on the act saying prices will rise so get in now to get a small discount...........madness.
It takes no time to have a look at some USA press to see they are predicting falls of 15% on new and nearly new used cars. Wholesale prices in the EU and UK are down over 11% and those usually flow through to retail prices so why do the UK press keep trying to talk this up......I get they want to save dealers from some pain but this should not be at the cost of the general public as in reality the only ones to gain will be the car makers who coin in the huge profits while dealer struggle on.

Car King    on 12 May 2020

oh good lord.....the motoring press are really at it now. sales will rise due to people buying cars to go to work.....really!!!!! So someone is going to go from spending say £100 a month on a train or bus pass to say £200 a month on a car plus other costs, fuel, insurance, etc etc oh and say £300 a month on city centre parking...dream on.......and before anyone says anything obviously you will have some people who work out of town and have free parking etc but most of those people will already own cars so that is unlikely too. At least the dealers I have spoken to recently are now offering and looking at discounts of c£500 right off the bat so I dont think it will be that much longer before prices start to fall.

Adlof Hilter    on 13 May 2020

It's complete t***. No one will buying them for now. Prices will fall off a cliff. We've seen pictures of masses of new cars lying on airfields in the UK. Someone should be selling them- but the market will dictate a lower price.

Adlof Hilter    on 13 May 2020

Why t f does the word "to sh" get blanked out? Ah! It's the DT. Stupid cnuts.

Oldboy    on 14 May 2020

I would like a new Rangie, but my 20 year old one still goes, and has only standard Car tax to boot.

I would feel grievously offended by the £1000 per month in depreciation, even on a 2-3 year old, so as long as "Old Betsy" keeps chugging along and costs me under £1000 a year in maintenance, I will keep the old faithful going.

Going from the cor blimey to the sublime, other car is a 350bhp 4 seat Quatro convertible, that is a now 15 year old Audi S4, bought with 600 miles on the clock from an Audi Main Dealer, after a bit of eyeballing- £15 grand off for being 18 months old ! Hope she keeps going until I am ready for a wee electric chariot, I could not justify £70 grand plus for a new RS5 Cab.

As we have PV panels, my next car migh be a plug in hybrid 4X4 convertible, ideally an ex demo with a good slug off, if anyone makes one by then !

carl233    on 14 May 2020

Who is buying all these cars for prices to soar? Public sector pay freeze (which already is typically low). Plus companies laying many people off with no security for the interim future for these left? It is a scam, wait 12 months and then after the industry crumbles under the pressure get a reasonable deal...

romford4    on 17 May 2020

Car King, you repeatedly refer to "wholesale prices falling 11%". Where did you read this? None of the fleets are moving stock at present, BCA, Manheim, Aston Barclay and the others are by & large still closed, and CAP haven't moved their prices since March because there's been insufficient sales data. The only stuff that has been moving is from a couple of Manheim auctions and BCA getting rid of the Grade 4-5 rubbish that's been cluttering up their yards. Some Manheim prices have been well below CAP Clean, others well above. Seems to me that any perceived 'drop' in prices is mainly because the auctions are clearing out the rubbish that didn't sell in the first couple of trips through the block. Many of the main dealers within a 50 mile radius of me have hiked their prices by £1-2k on their £10-30k stock. I don't know where you're based, but other than the initial 3 weeks of lockdown, business in my area has been brisk (& I'm not talking motor trade), and there's plenty of people making good money. I can honestly say that without exception, all my family and friends running businesses thought we'd be on our a***s throughout this period and reliant on savings, but in reality that's turned out not to be the case. I'm already close to hitting my targets that, pre-Corona, I hadn't anticipated hitting until October. Some folk might be skint, but many others aren't, and those talking about getting £500 discounts off cars straight off the bat aren't taking into account the recent dealer mark-ups.

The contributor that said (6 May):

"For anyone considering taking a HIGHER priced car on any finance , if you buy now your car will be worth LESS as car buyers are refusing to buy at a fair price. and if you decide to pcp or pch a car and have NOT been infected with covid 19 then you are massively putting your loved ones future at risk as they will be held fully responsible for any outstanding finance on that INCREASED price tag on your used car if god forbid you are infected, with over 30000 deaths recorded so far in the UK and no end in sight then only people with huge arrogance would risk it".

^^^ Scaremongering and misinformation. Nothing has changed! Cars are worth less when you come to sell them?... No shiz Sherlock! Guarantors know exactly what they're guaranteeing. Does anyone jointly sign-up for a PCP, lease, finance these days? Outstanding sums due from a debtor upon their death have always come from their estate. If they have no estate, the finance co. can't recover anything. Same with bank loans, financed kitchens/tv/sofas and so on.

No wonder car dealers talk about the honestjohn, carexpert, mumsnet forum brigade. Same people spraffed on about house prices dropping by 50% in 2008/9 and how they wouldn't be paying greedy sellers' prices until they were more realistic on their asking prices. Price dips came, went, and while other buyers got in, the keyboard dreamers were still waiting for that magic 50% drop.

Edited by HJ Editor on 06/11/2020 at 16:55

Andy Lane    on 17 May 2020

I think I'll wait until the start of the second wave until I buy.

Car King    on 19 May 2020

romford4 So let me get it right....according to you and the car press (dealer puppets) the UK will have a completely different outcome from the USA and Europe coming out of lockdown......... the US and and Europe are predicting and seeing the first signs of reducing values of new and used cars. They both predict loads of excess stock due to ending leases, terminations and hire company sales during covid and that new cars are coming through again prior to any real movement from consumers yet you think the UK will be different,...How? Dealer mark ups I cannot comment on other than unless this happened well over 9 weeks ago this is not the case as I have been looking closely at prices for around this time and there has been no movement at all in the 1-3 year used market. Also I am happy you and your friends/family are still in work/hitting sales targets but I think you need to get your head the real world the leisure/hospitality industry will have massive job losses and take years to recover. BA, Virgin etc in the air industry have lost thousands of jobs and bear in mind a lot will be well paid like pilots etc. OVO utility company announced over 2.5 thousand jobs to go today and the press are predicting 6.5 million will be made redundant by the end of all this but you predict people will be throwing money at cars which will keep prices up,.........really. I honestly hope you are right as that would mean no real recession and job losses but outside your bubble this is effecting a lot of people and will continue to do so for a long time to come. You will always have some who will win in hard times but unfortunately it is not the majority.

Edited by Car King on 19/05/2020 at 11:23

Andy Lane    on 19 May 2020

Also we have the sh@tshow/Clusterf&ck that is brexit to come. Not looking good for old blighty in 20/21 etc.

romford4    on 22 May 2020

CK, I'm only asking where you heard the '11% drop in wholesale prices' from... Don't take it as a personal attack.
Where there's likely to be plenty supply in some segments (nearly new & up to 3/4 yrs old), there's lower supply in others (new) to balance things out a little.
Regardless of redundancies etc, many folk will use their noggins, adapt, diversify, expand, work harder to maintain a standard of living that they and their families are used to.
One thing's certain though... you can't believe a word of what the media tells you. Far too many vested interests and spin. The proof will be what happens in reality, not what the BBC, or the Soros or Barclay funded lot tell you.

Car King    on 22 May 2020

r4 I didn't just thought it was a bit insensitive to people who are struggling now. I think that you are right about the media. I work in finance dealing with insolvent companies however everyone is predicting a lot of problems so that part is not just media hype etc. I cant remember where I saw the 11% fall but did see it in an article on line a number of weeks ago. I just cannot see people buying cars in any great number, yes people who have lost their jobs will change and adapt but I don't think a new car will be top of their list. There will be people who are not effected and will continue to buy but that will not be as many as before, its just a sad fact. Personally I think most cars are over priced by c10-15% in any case. A few thousand off new and used prices might temps some to buy which would help. Other than me I know no one who is looking for a new car right now. My current is also fine right now so I am in no rush, if prices fall then I might buy, they don't I probably wont. eventually the right deal/car will come up but if not then I will just be one of the many who would have bought if prices had fallen.

ROBBIENUD    on 23 May 2020

Renta car firms, Herz, Avis etc. Will have bought hundreds of fleet cars new ready for the seasons holiday business. It didn’t happen. Thousands of almost new cars world wide and the companies have to meet the loans they took out expecting a good income. They will be shifting these cars as far less than cost just to stay solvent, Be some zero mileage registered cars available at low prices, the market will fall not rise.

romford4    on 28 May 2020

True Robbie, although the rental firms in the US tend to buy their fleets, run them, then sell them. UK rental firms tend to have variations of leasing or buy-back agreements so less risk for the company, more for the vehicle manufacturer. Hertz US filed for Chapter 11 a few days ago so as to restructure & protect assets as their debts are LARGE, but UK not affected. Check out the Irish Republic though... Hertz have set up an online platform to dispose of stock. Selling to the public at good discounts. I can only assume they operate more of an outright purchase business model similar to the US and Canada. Would need to be a hell of a discount to make it worthwhile importing a car from Ireland to the UK though.... If you think cars are pricey here, Ireland's used prices normally make my eyes water!

Edited by romford4 on 28/05/2020 at 22:11

Car King    on 4 June 2020

The point is it doesn't really matter the make up you will still have 1-3 year old hire cars coming back into circulation.....

I must say today reading the car press they are trying hard to up sell I will give them that. Saying there is strong demand and that will push up prices......but when you take the time to read the detail it actually say demand is lower than pre covid and they are worried once these initial people purchase vehicles as I think even they can see the falling sales as time goes on. I think the issue they will have is striking the right deal with the people who are on the fence. A bit like me, I am fine with my current vehicle but have cash and am looking and willing to buy but at the right price. Am I going to pay £21k for a car which has been on autotrader since Feb and not come down in price a bit while the warranty is now less etc etc. Quite frankly no, take £400-£500 off would I....,..well again no. I would like a new car but I don't need one so I am happy to wait and see and there is the dealers problem right there. If people have any sense they will wait as the prices will only fall if sales are slow. Now if the dealer was (in my opinion) realistic and was prepared to talk about a discount of say £1-£2k or £1k and extended warranty/service plan etc then I might be tempted as that would be a c5-10% discount which is in the range they think prices may fall to anyway. Given the prices dealers offer for trade in's etc I am sure they will be fine with that and given their banks will either now or will be shortly asking for payments on their stock it would make sense for them.

Car King    on 10 June 2020

Well who voted for lower prices.......recent news says new car prices are down 25% on loads. c£16.5k off a merc E class, 24% off VW Golf SV etc etc. I was even offer a Volvo V90 T4 for under £25k new so c£15k off.

If there is this level of discounting on new cars what do you think is going to happen to used prices........oh £21/22k for a 2 year old V90 with 18k miles....hang on I can get a new V90 for c£24.5k....only a fool would by the second hand one. Dealers will have no choice but to bring down second hand values to make them competitive. But dont worry prices are going to increase....ok then.

romford4    on 3 July 2020

^^ Someone's been reading his 'monthly offers' email from DriveTheDeal! Other than some attractive Audi discounts that go a little above their norm, I don't see anything new here. DtD have these offers on Mercs constantly and the Volvo was a discount on one single car at one dealer. Don't know where you're based, but demand and prices are through the roof at present. One look at a BCA live online auction should tell you everything you need to know. On the other hand, I thought motorcycle sales would be suffering and thought I'd maybe get a decent discount on a '70-plate come September, but I'm way off the mark as sales at my 2 local dealers are up a third on last year. Seems people are splashing out their Corona savings so they don't have to share public transport with the great unwashed.

Edited by romford4 on 03/07/2020 at 17:30

JelloTR    on 10 July 2020

I’ve just been offered a 6month old M4 competition with 3k miles and every conceivable extra, list price was nearly £80k. They asked for £45k without me even trying to haggle, £500/month at 2.9APR. I’m sure they’d have gone to £40k. 40k depreciation in 6 months, sure Used car values are increasing...

Car King    on 13 July 2020

As I think a lot have stated used price may hold or even go up a little at the start but once the global downturn kicks in they will be throwing cars at you.

One volvo!! not really a mainline dealer/national chain offering far more than one and there were others too like deals on XC90's, V60's etc. Even the other day there was a ford mondeo estate top spec 8k miles 18 plate which was originally 20k in jan down to £17k. Yes but prices are increasing ok then. So why then are most doing used events with 2 years warranty, 2 year servicing deals etc. Volvo had one, VW had one, etc etc. If prices were strong there is no way they would be doing these offers. They are trying to tempt the people who have money or those willing to risk their money.

The average mark up at dealers on c£15k-£20k cars seems to be c£3k. If you jump in you might get £500 off. if you wait your time till the car is sitting a month or so it should come down 500-1000 then you might also get c500-1000 off. Dealer will make 500-1500 depending on what you agree and if you trade in they will make on that although a bit less if the trade value is under 10k.

Once the initial demand is out the way from people still working or plain just mad prices will come crashing down on new and over £15k prices. Yes sub £10k might hold firm due to as you say people wanting to avoid the unwashed etc but the likely is those who can work from home will continue to do so. This will have its own impact on spending, eg no one having their morning coffee, lunch etc so those types of places will start to struggle thereby putting more jobs at risk.

Duncan Espie    on 31 July 2020

A family friend works at a big leasing company, and although she’s working from home she reckons she’s never been busier, need to make of that what you will, but we are talking about big companies buying large quantities of metal.

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