Doom and gloom. Been here before in the 70's and 80's. Technologies will evolve rapidly with the driver of high oil prices and 'green' taxes. Once you've tasted personal transport you rarely go back to public transport willingly so I predict some form of car will exist and people will aspire to own them for a very long time. We're probably seeing the end of large fossil-fuelled cars except for a wealthy few but there will always be a demand for performance and sports cars however they are propelled, the Tesla being an example.
Sad though, nothing quite like a powerful petrol engine on song.
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I think the changes in attitude will be subtle but noticeable. I would predict that the purchase emphasis will err more to pragmatism. The questions of how useful, affordable and economical will take greater precedence over fashion and form. Today's "lifestyle" vehicles are increasingly being regarded as a form of automotive hedonism and while there will always be a market for premium, luxury, sports or downright outrageous products I would forecast the decline of so called aspirational cars in the middle market.
The sort of people who are interested enough in the subject to read and contribute to this forum are probably already more aware than most of the wider implications of their choices but in recent years the majority of cars have been bought primarily as functional fashion accessories. This has resulted in many running vehicles which bear no relation to their needs. I would think that there will be more care taken over these decisions as finance constraints become more front of mind.
As nick mentions, a form of personal transport will still be the preferred choice for most. Perhaps we will see more motorcycles or their derivatives being used for commuter duties as is often the case in other European countries.
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I have loads of friends who have no car. I'm not sure why I have one either - except so that these friends can borrow it...
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depends where you live
where I live now you can do without a car, albeit to go sideways, rather than in/out, takes a long time and various bus changes
where i was brought up a car is essential (two buses a day and courtesy of Dr Beeching, no railway station)
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Considering all costs, a mixture of taxis and hire cars probably works out cheaper and probably more convenient than running ones own car but, after half a century of motoring, I am probably stuck with my habit till I hand back my licence (tried to kick the habit, gave in after a few months).
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More convenient? What's more convenient than going outside your front door at any time and having transport to anywhere you like?
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I think motoring has peaked for the time being, but private road transport is not dead or dying. However, the 'age of the car' in an emotional sense is probably over as we will all need to drive more efficient machines in future. What will disappear is the drama of the car - the spitting V8 petrol engine or a snarling 6-cylinder will become the preserve of the occasionally used classics alongside the putter of the Citroen 2CV or the whining gears of the Morris Minor.
In a recession, the need for people to travel might well reduce - especially in connection with work. If so, traffic will reduce because we use our cars less.
Edited by Sofa Spud on 08/07/2008 at 16:01
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I might have driven up to the Waddington airshow on Sunday but among the factors against were:
1. It's a 250 mile round trip which would have cost 5 gallons of diesel at six quid a gallon
2. The ruddy awful UK roads which would have meant up to three hours driving each way
So, my mileage has decreased !
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I dont think their has been any kind of peak. Certainly people will be buying different products, following the trends of the times, but there are many ways that still to an extent, beat the system of high motoring costs and legislation - take the diesel Mini for instance - low CO2 and good mpg but still a 'must have' car for many, yet it is 'green'.
Aslong as car makers adapt their products and plan ahead, motoring will certainly change, but I think only to allow us to do pretty much what we do now, within the enviromentally friendly framework that is being built as we speak.
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I suppose what is driving my thoughts is that in my work (in the urban design field) I come across alot of thinking/govt funded work that seems to be pointing towards a future where effctively car ownership much above 1-1.25 vehs a household will be seen as "unnecessary" and that tax policy and other stuff will be brought in to moderate ownership down down to this sort of level and other measures will tackle our more recent growth in long distance commuting by car...ie that for many people using a car for every journey will become harder and seen as a socially and economically disadvantageous eg with workplace parking tax (or spaces removed or not permitted in new developments), limited parking in housing, congestion charging...perhaps even a yearly reward for remaining carless...
I've seen alot of work in the urban design and transport planning field wax lyrical about compact cities in places like Amsterdam, Freiburg Germany, Denmark where car use appears at least in terms of local movement to be a minority activity compared to other means eg bikes, walking, public transport and the place is viewed as being alot better to live in because those pesky cars have all gone...I contrast this to recently visiting a mate who lives in a typical 80s housing estate on the outskirts of a essex town where the street is full of cars...almost everyone has removed their front garden to park umpteen vehicles there (2-3 cars are norm...some trying to fit 3-4 vehs in...alot of the cars sporting new numberplates and alot of TLC being applied - eg the polished "smart" motor parked out front for all the neighbours to see.....
Can anyone here see people here adapting to a life with just less involvement of the car in daily life?
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Its all very talking about walking, cycling, scootering and waiting for buses whilst in the throes of summer. I wonder what people will be thinking when its a cold wet January morning? The sad fact is the British weather puts the brake on a lot of transport alternatives for everyday use. We wont be scootering around like the Italians or cycling in great numbers when its cold and wet. I wont be anyway...
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No one i know would be in the least apologetic for owning their particular car, and wouldn't feel the need to justify their choice, i certainly don't.
SWMBO's philosophy, when someone else is paying for her car, she'll then have the car they want her to, until then she'll buy what she wants.
Without doubt the current fuel/tax situation has changed the type of car bought, and most i know have gone diesel.
I believe enjoyable motoring has gone for the forseeable future, tax collecting cameras, parking wardens, road humps and the state of the roads have spoiled even the most enjoyable trip. And thats without the spreading mimsing disease, it'll soon be quicker to walk the way some dawdle about, overtake a mimser and its a crime.
Certainly the fun has gone west.
I should imagine it will get worse too, we'll see some sort of road pricing once we've all been forced to run around in a cloned shoe box, and one may have to justify ones trip for example.
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I think there will be a few things being trialled in the next few years....
Nationwide road charging
Out of town retail being forced to charge for car parking or nolonger being able to provide extensive parking...existing sites may be densified or the car park moved to be less accessible than other modes...
Workplace car space charging
Some form of negative tax relating to car use/purchase....ie a payment or tax allowance that you keep if carless...but forfeit if you maintain a car
also perhaps some form of commuting business tax for businesses that do not pay due regard to how far they are expecting people to drive to work so if someone is recruited from 100 miles away the firm uses up some form of carbon commuting allowance more quickly than if they make an effort to have a more compact area of commuting.
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Yes - until a realistic alternative to oil comes along.
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Nationwide road charging Out of town retail being forced to charge for car parking or nolonger being able to provide extensive parking...existing sites may be densified or the car park moved to be less accessible than other modes... Workplace car space charging Some form of negative tax relating to car use/purchase....ie a payment or tax allowance that you keep if carless...but forfeit if you maintain a car also perhaps some form of commuting business tax for businesses that do not pay due regard to how far they are expecting people to drive to work so if someone is recruited from 100 miles away the firm uses up some form of carbon commuting allowance more quickly than if they make an effort to have a more compact area of commuting.
Isn't it funny how everything you suggest is a method of screwing the car user over?There is not one positive idea there - nothing which says "Don't use your car because there is a better alternative in this situation".
Outside of the big cities, this country just does not have the public transport infrastructure to make living without a car viable - this is the reason why people don't, and this is the reason why the government has to try to force people out of their cars rather than persuading them with logic - because logically they're wrong - the car is a necessity.
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Isn't it funny how everything you suggest is a method of screwing the car user over?There is not one positive idea there - nothing which says "Don't use your car because there is a better alternative in this situation".
Exactly. There are broadly three kinds of car journey that people might make:
1. Journeys that probably aren't necessary at all.
2. Journeys that could reasonably be taken on public transport (assuming its available, pleasant, safe etc.).
3. Journeys for which personal transportation is the only practical option.
Not every individual necessarily makes every kind of journey, but averaged across the whole country they all happen.
The first two are sensible targets for car use reduction. Getting people to consider whether their journey is really necessary is a good thing. Providing public transport that people want to use (where it can move them around more efficiently than cars) and getting them to consider using it is a good thing. But sometimes the answer will be "yes, I need to make this journey and no, public transport isn't a practical option". Hence owning a car is a necessity, even if using it for some of the things you used to use it for isn't.
Most of the suggestions upthread don't appear designed to target the first two kinds of journey, they just make it more expensive to carry out the third kind. That's both unhelpful and unfair.
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also perhaps some form of commuting business tax for businesses that do not pay due regard to how far they are expecting people to drive to work so if someone is recruited from 100 miles away the firm uses up some form of carbon commuting allowance more quickly than if they make an effort to have a more compact area of commuting.
Thats an interesting one which I'm surprised people dont pick up on more often.
My company is a prime offender here as it is a technology company with 'relatively' high salaries. Many people do 120+ mile a day commutes because they are de-incentivised from moving house. ie No relocation, have to pay stamp duty and cost of property higher.
Also, the entire poulation has been brain washed with years of 'be a property developer' and 'escape to the country' TV programmes. How about some programmes like 'live where you work' or 'short commuter life' !
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I suppose what is driving my thoughts is that in my work (in the urban design field)
And there's your answer. Not all of the country is urban. Whether those involved in the government funded thinking you describe manage to remember that remains to be seen of course.
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More convenient? What's more convenient than going outside your front door at any time and having transport to anywhere you like? >>
What about the inconveniences of relevant paperwork, routine care, garage servicing, fuelling and the cut and thrust of motoring and parking?
Edited by Dynamic Dave on 09/07/2008 at 19:43
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Goodbye to cheap luxury motoring.
You mean hello to cheap luxury motoring surely? The values of such cars are crashing further and faster than ever before. It has never been cheaper to own a luxury car, in many cases the saving on buying an equivilent car 5 years ago more than makes up for the increased running costs.
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Very true. I received a mailshot from a Volvo dealer the other day offering me a top spec Volvo S80 SE Lux D5 auto with loads of options for £27K (brand new). List price was around £35k.
Wait until that car is three years old and they'll be giving it away for maybe £10k, a bargain in anyone's eyes.
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