Pretty much the same answer as Orb. I've had a couple of at fault claims in the last 10 years including a Roomster that was written off.
While I'd have paid a lot more remaining with the company that paid out - IIRC LV - I got a much cheaper quote from Direct Line; less than I was paying before the write off.
For higher risk age categories, the difference between say a 5 year NCD and 0 is enormous. For those living in a low risk area, working in a low-risk career and in that 'sweet spot' age-wise, all other things being equal, the starting premium can be lower than the premium for one with a higher risk profile but 5+ years of NCD, even unprotected.
Essentially there's no one 'rule' as to what works best, but a combination of factors and how each insurer ranks them to how they calculate the starting premium and level of NCD or how much a protected bonus costs.
The firm's customer base and type of vehicles they prefer to cover will also affect the premium, as will what other business they do - other types of insurance, including in commerce, and other unrelated business.
Some will cross-subsidise profits from one part of their business during 'unusual times' to keep another part going, like when insurers do this when some big payout comes for some huge liability.
I personally don't pay that much to get a PNCD, mostly about £30 - $50pa on my policies over the last 15-20 years, where the overall premium varied between about £400 when I first bought my car (new) back in 2006 when I was in my 30s and now only £180 ish when in my 50s.
I've only had one fault claim, and on my previous car back in 1999, and I had PNCD at that time. My premiums did steadily rise from about £350 to £650 over the next 4 years, but then reduced back down to where it started as I hit 30, with the premium only going up because my current car was higher spec / performance than the previous one.
I would also note that moving home to a more rural, lower crime area helped reduce my premium by about a third.
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