I was wondering how luxury cars will develop if very stringent measures are imposed in say ten years time.
Since the direction seems to be towards smaller cars, I was wondering what sort of cars these would be.
I imagine to get any real feeling of space you would need a car as big as a family hatch but perhaps more space efficient then we have today with new technologies.
I was also wondering what sort of economy and weight losses could be had by building a small luxury car from carbonfibre for instance and reducing weight would both improve economy and performance which would mean you could use less powerful engines for the same effect as a large one.
If you were charging £30k for the car you could surely afford to use many more exotic materials to make the vehicle meet emissions and size targets which I think may be on the way with increasing traffic.
If you could make cars weigh much less than the heavyweights they have now become, the need for large engines to get decent performance would be reduced, thus you can have economy and performance.
Im not sure that today we would accept a car of small size but large pricetag, but in the future this may change - eachtime style changes its a shock at first but then we adapt.
Just really interested in what ideas the BR has about ow the market will change at the top end?
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If you could make cars weigh much less than the heavyweights they have now become, the need for large engines to get decent performance would be reduced, thus you can have economy and performance.
To me this has been the biggest backward step in modern car design. They spend millions on R&D for fuel management settings and engine design to achieve low emissions and low fuel consumption, and then bolt the technical masterpiece into a bloated lump of lard weighing two tonnes.
I had a 2.0 mk3 Mondeo as a hire car last year which was comprehensively outperformed, and drank more fuel than my fathers old 2.0 mk1 (with 180k on the clock and which hadn't been serviced for about 30,000 miles). The Mondeo mk1 is itself both thirstier and slower than a 2.0i Sierra.
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If you got rid of all the unnecessary extras, (electric windows, AC, heated electric seats, ABS, power steering etc) economy probably wouldn't be a problem :)
Think I remember on an old Top Gear, the latest Golf GTI had nearly twice the power as the MK1, but had about the same performance, MPG etc, because it weighed twice as much!
Also, if cars went back to the same size as they were 20 years ago, this would help - cars have become as bloated as their owners in the last few years.
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in the golfs case i understood most of the extra weight were changes to make the car protect the people inside in the event of a crash better
possibly same issue for the ford
personally id rather have the extra weight if it meant a better chance of living after a crash
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I think the evolution of luxury cars will be greatly affected by secondhand values. As more punative taxes are applied to large cars then their secondhand value will drop like a stone as they are no longer desirable to own as they will be too expensive to keep on the road e.g. large 4x4's values have dropped heavily. Increased congestion charges for large engines will further impinge on values.
Changes might make luxury cars less powerful, more fuel efficient, and possibly built with shorter intended lifespan - almost a disposable car. The first two are to be championed, but to maximise our planet's limited resources we should be looking at extending a car's life not shortening it.
Do I see the end of luxury cars? No. There will always be some people with plenty of money to spend and can write depreciation off against a business. It might mean that well paid executives require even larger pay packets to keep them in the lifestyle to which they are accustomed to, thereby increasing the difference between the rich and the poor. The size of the luxury car market will probably shrink when compared to todays numbers.
Over the past 20 to 30 years cars have become more bloated to include many safety features, so a VW Polo is now larger than the original VW Golf. This has happened over all car ranges, it is very rare for a replacement model to be smaller than the model it is replacing. Unfortunately over the same period we have not seen car parking spaces getting bigger or when building new houses ensuring garages are large enough for an average car to fit inside. Also the planning rules have been limiting the amount of parking in residential and commercial developments to encourage more people to use public transport. Unless there are changes in government and european policies I feel even more pressure will be brought to reduce the number and size of vehicles. The control of speed has come in many forms from new lower limits, extended areas, speed cameras, all of which could be argued will put pressure on needing smaller engines as the power cannot be used. (Who would want to be a car maker?)
To enable a smaller vehicle footprint, I foresee that more cars will get taller. The Renault Espace was the start of this trend, with most manufacturers following suit. This maximises the internal volume whilst keeping the vehicle as small as possible. This should help to keep the overall road weight down and therefore be able to use a smaller engine. The practical use of a vehicle will become greater and I feel the 4 door saloon will be a smaller proportion of all vehicles sold. The hatchback, estate and MPV are the future, but surprisingly BMW, Mercedes, Jaguar, etc still seem to build more 4 door saloons.
These are my initial thoughts.
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Roger
I read frequently, but only post when I have something useful to say.
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8< SNIP - unecessary quoting of person to which you're replying to removed. See ww.honestjohn.co.uk/forum/post/index.htm?t=42612 for more details - DD.
In reply to Roger:-
You are right in what you are saying, but what we are all forgetting here is that we are simply viewing the car market locally, through the eyes of UK consumers. We need to look at it Globally. Yes. cars are indeed a 'disposable' item to many in the UK now. This is down to the fact the we enjoy the cheapest USED cars in europe, probably some of the cheapest in the world. This is down to Massive over-supply of new cars (the company car!), our own 'keep up with the Jone'ses snobbish mentality (probably stems from company car culture), and the rampant depreciation that is the result, which we are able to take advantage of. As I understand it, cars elsewhere in Europe (especially Scandinavia, Denmark and the Eastern block) are alot more expensive and so motorists look after their cars and keep them alot longer. Why else are Latvians/Lithuanians coming here, not other European countries, to stock up on 10 year old German cars to take home and break or whatever it is they do with them.
It is only because cars in this country are relatively worthless that we are throwing them away when they reach 8-10 years old and faults start to occur. This is absolute madness when one thinks about it, yet can you imagine the same thing happening in Denmark for instance?
What do the rest of you think?
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Its a shame that the mentality that Volvo persued in the 1970s/80's of builing a car like a brick outhouse is still being applied today - in 1980 it was acceptable to build a car strong and heavy because they didnt know any better and safety was only just becoming relevant in the buying public.
Now, in 2007, its a sad state of affairs that car makers cant come up with a more intelligent way to make cars safe which doesnt involve huge increases in weight.
I look to the F1 cars which I think are far safer than your average production car looking at the speeds they have accidents at and wonder why it takes so long for the technology that makes a carbon fibre bathtub safe, to filter down to production cars.
Does anyone ever think that perhaps they withold progress to stagger their approach to the development of cars as a whole?
I often wonder. This way they get far more longevity from their technology by being slow on the uptake but having it there when someone else makes a move and introduces it.
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"Since the direction seems to be towards smaller cars"
I know what you mean, but they aren't, when you see an old car, it's surprising how small they look compared to a modern equivalent.
Cars are certainly getting wider and higher.
I think cars will need to be made of different materials other than steel, such as plastics.
We already see plastic inlet manifolds and sumps on some models, but most are still metal. We could have plastic wheels, panels, windows and maybe other parts could be made from that cheaper carbon fibre stuff, where the fibre is chopped up rather than woven.
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I look to the F1 cars which I think are far safer than your average production car looking at the speeds they have accidents at and wonder why it takes so long for the technology that makes a carbon fibre bathtub safe, to filter down to production cars.
However a minor bump and an F1 car disintegrates.
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