Crystal balls-up

What is the best way to calculate how much a second hand car will depreciate over a certain period of ownership? I ask as I have an Oct 06 Golf 2.0 TDi, which, after reading your review on their potential problems I will consider buying a series of aftermarket warranties for. However, after seeing your review on the Audi A1 diesel where you say it should retain 66% of its value after three years I wonder if buying new might not be so expensive after all as it will of course have a manufacturer's warranty. Understanding how the Golf will depreciate will help me make my decision. On the subject of buying new, is there a source of information somewhere that will give expected retained value after three years on all new cars?

Asked on 15 January 2010 by PC, via email

Answered by Honest John
You can't. Some fleet advisers will attempt to do it by predicting percentage residual values based on list prices after 3 years and 60,000 miles. But these are misleading because, by these sums, a heavily discounted car will have a lower % residual value, yet might not have lost as much actual money. So never, ever pay any attention to predicted residual value percentages, only the buying and selling figures themselves.
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