Analysing Road Accident Statistics - jamie745

WARNING: LONG POST WITH STATISTICS AND ANALYSIS

Those not interested, leave now.

This is related to the safety thread in the Bikers Caff but i felt better to post it here as its not totally bike related. I was looking for bicycle v motorbike safety stats and struggled to find much but i did find this. Stats dont tell a full story, theres variables, its hard to compare stats for a nation this size to one the size of the US for example but proportionately the UK's roads are extremely safe, and this is all about proportion of course.

Last year, Government stats showed a record low for road deaths in the UK. The statistics for the causes were interesting. 'Failing to look properly' was a major or cause factor in 38% of road accidents last year. 'Loss of control' was the cause of 36% of fatality incidents. In 58% of accidents where a pedestrian was killed or seriously injured, 'failing to look properly' was reported for the pedestrian. Proves 'look both ways' really is great advice.

This one's interesting. Only 5% of accidents involved a motorist exceeding the speed limit but that rises to 13% when 'driving too fast for conditions' is taken into account. A low percentage considering the rhetoric around speed and the money poured into preventing it. And stats show road death numbers have largely stagnated since speed cameras were introduced, after a sharp fall during the 80s.

The WHO ranks nations on road deaths per 100,000 inhabitants and we come out 5th best, with the better ones being three minor islands and Sweden. 3.59 per 100,000 a year approx for the UK. 4.5 for Germany, 4.7 Ireland, 5.2 Australia, 6.9 France and a staggering 12.3 for the US. You're three times more likely to die on American than British roads. Most broadly, road deaths accounted for only 0.5% of deaths last year, 33% of deaths were due to heart disease and cancer weighed in with a quarter. You're 23 times more likely to be murdered in the UK than die on the roads.

Im not saying we should rest on our laurels but some perspective is needed at times, excluding minor islands we have the 2nd safest roads in the World but alot of the time we're led to believe its far worse.

Thoughts?

Edited by jamie745 on 17/09/2011 at 23:49

Analysing Road Accident Statistics - greenhey

If you are going to look at these trends, surely it's important to consider them against the levels of vehicle use over this time.

It may well be that accidents are not now falling , but in the light of increased traffic that might still be an accomplishment.

I would imagine the drop in the 80s would refelct more widespread use of seat-belts.

As far as speed is conerned, it's important to understand the arguments. I don't think any serious campaigner re limits is arguing that excess speed in itself is a promary cause. The argument is that if an accident occurs for other reasons, excess speed makes the consequences greater in that the reaction time of people involved, and the performance of braking systems, tyres, etc , is reduced.

Analysing Road Accident Statistics - jamie745

If you are going to look at these trends, surely it's important to consider them against the levels of vehicle use over this time.

I agree, i was going to include those stats but didnt want the post to be too long (@ Avant, i cut it down by 260 words before i posted it, happy now?) but we do know there were around 25million vehicles on our roads in 1995 and thats risen to around 32 million now and yet in that time road deaths has continued to come down rapidly which makes it look even better.

It may well be that accidents are not now falling , but in the light of increased traffic that might still be an accomplishment.

I would imagine the drop in the 80s would refelct more widespread use of seat-belts.

I think it is an accomplishment, the stats show individual amounts of road deaths are going down constantly while population and traffic levels are increasing. Seat belts probably do have alot to do with it cars of the 80s were much safer than ones of even 15 years before and obviously the safety levels in modern cars are almost lightyears ahead of what we had 30 years ago, that will have something to do with it (accidents might be rising but due to safer cars, deaths and injuries arent). I never said accidents were going down, thats hard to quantify but we can confirm deaths and injuries are down.

As far as speed is conerned, it's important to understand the arguments. I don't think any serious campaigner re limits is arguing that excess speed in itself is a promary cause

Perhaps, but the problem is its the unreasonable hysterical campaigners who get airtime and coverage. The likes of Brake with encouraging people to drive at 20 in a 30 limit regardless of conditions, the 'Speed Kills' campaign when clearly thats not true. We know most accidents happen at low speeds in congestion urban areas in 20 limits. And we know our fastest roads are statistically our safest with fewer accidents (although more of them are likely to be fatal if there is one). Too many campaigns centre around making people drive slower rather than safer. When you get people in the Police like Brunstrom state 'nobody has the right to drift over the speed limit anymore than they have the right to drift a knife into somebody' you see the hysterical madness we're up against. Incidentally his obsession with speeding and attacking the motorist led to all his resources going into that and his forces cleanup rates for proper crimes was among the worst in the country.

Edited by jamie745 on 18/09/2011 at 14:26

Analysing Road Accident Statistics - RT

I recall the main summary of these statistics was that bike (motor and pedal) casualties have gone up despite the overall figures coming down.

Policing of speed limits is straighforward using technology - but of course few other crimes can be policed in this way, certainly not murder!

Analysing Road Accident Statistics - jamie745

The fact is someone could go past a speed camera drunk, on drugs, without a licence, no insurance, no tax, no mot with a boot full of cocaine, plastic explosives and AK47's but so long as they dont exceed the speed limit they'll get away with it.

We also know speed cameras dont prevent accidents or deaths, statistics show deaths were on their way down until the early 90s when fixed speed camera's came in and since then its been hovering around the same number, it stopped dead. You could argue that with traffic levels increasing in the same time for deaths to remain at the same level thats good enough, some might argue if it werent for speed camera's it wouldve gotten worse rather than stay the same.

But the fact people have been taken to court for warning oncoming motorists theres a speed trap ahead is what makes me doubt the true motives for cameras. Surely if it makes the motorist slow down then the Police would be delighted. If all they wanted was for people to slow down they'd have no problem with people flashing their lights to warn of a speed camera ahead. It proves what they really want is for you to slow down - after they've made money out of you but not a second before. I view speed camera's as a job creation scheme, part of a communistical policy of taxing every part of life possible and they're worth too much money and too many pensions to people for it to be entirely about 'safety'. If your entire £60 fine went to the RSPCA or something instead of lining someones pocket i might change my view on it.

The fact local authorities and people like Brake consistently resist in publishing speed camera data tells you there must be something going on. We can find out how many fines were given out by fixed camera's, but i want to know how many of those instances of speeding resulted in an accident because if its any less than 50% surely its an ineffective, expensive policy.

Edited by jamie745 on 18/09/2011 at 14:50

Analysing Road Accident Statistics - rjr
And stats show road death numbers have largely stagnated since speed cameras were introduced, after a sharp fall during the 80s.

Irrespective of the discussion about how much impact safety cameras have actually had in reducing road deaths it is a complete distortion of the facts to claim that the number of people killed has stagnated since they were introduced.

The first speed camera in the UK was installed in 1992 when c.5,000 people died every year on the roads (I don't have the figures for 1992 but for 1990 the total number killed was 5,217.

Speed cameras became widespread after Safety Camera Partnerships were created in 1999 with the aim of cutting the average number of road deaths from 1994-98 (3,578) by 40% by 2010.

In 2010 the number killed was 1,857 (a 48% drop from the 1994-98 average).

I don't see how that fall can be described as stagnant.

Analysing Road Accident Statistics - jamie745

Well the statistics that ive read stated road deaths have been around 3,500 for the last 10-15 years. I dont know where that figure of 1,857 has come from there has to be some sort of bizarre mistake there. Typo or something. Or is that leaving out some categories perhaps? Is that leaving out pedestrians, cyclists etc?

Edited by jamie745 on 18/09/2011 at 16:50

Analysing Road Accident Statistics - jamie745

After some hunting i think ive found the stats you're referring to which are totally different to what ive been reading, everything else in my original post is right but i never found the total number for last year. But even this batch shows my assertion of it being around 3,5 for some time is correct, between 96-06. Maybe ive been reading stats which are a bit older but even so none of that proves speed camera's do anything what so ever.

The average over the last 20 years is 2,400 per year which is alot lower than the 20 years before it.

The worst times on British roads were between the 1940s and 1970s but thats to be expected, even with a very small amount of cars in comparison to now the average deaths per year in the 60s was over 7,000. No seatbelts, less strict training (plenty of people in the 70s got their licence in the war for free), unsafe cars, roads were poor as motorways were built in response to gridlocked, congested and terribly unsafe town roads in the previous couple of decades as we know. And as we know the 70mph speed limit came in during the 60s where the yearly road death rate was similar to the 70s.

The Safety Camera partnership may have had the aim of cutting deaths by 40% by last year, and as you've shown thats been exceeded but im still yet to see any concrete proof of any sort that Speed Camera's actually have anything to do with that, especially as speeding is not the cause of the majority of accidents. I think theres about a dozen other factors and reasons and the SCP are claiming everyone elses good work as their own achievements.

Our roads were the second safest in Europe behind Sweden in 1990 and they still are now. These are good numbers and we should keep that in perspective was my main point. Our roads are extremely safe we shouldnt lose sight of that. But even these stats dont tell everything, you are 3 times more likely to be killed on American roads than British but by the same token on average the Americans do almost twice as many miles per year as us.

Dont you just love stats? Plenty of them and we still know nothing LOL

Edited by jamie745 on 18/09/2011 at 17:15

Analysing Road Accident Statistics - RT

The 1940's should be ignored statistically because conditions in WW2 were very different - building and street lighting all blacked out, headlights restricted to a narrow slit and the likelihood of unmarked bomb craters - plus hundreds of thousands of GI's who couldn't remember to drive on the left!

The introduction of the 70mph limit (temporarily in 1965 and permanently in 1967) will have had very little impact initially on the accident statistics - because few cars could do more than 70 in those days.

Successive oil crises and big increases in fuel prices kept speeds down for quite some time even after the 70 limit was introduced.

Analysing Road Accident Statistics - jamie745

Well yes i suppose we should just take the 40s out of the stats all together and possibly the 50s as well as we were still putting the country back together at that point.

In the 60s and 70s i still think a big part of it is the safety of the cars, nobody used seatbelts so if you had an accident you were more likely to be killed (you could have the same accident in a new Volvo today and walk away from it unharmed). I think i can safely say it wasnt all due to everyone speeding everywhere in the absence of camera's. Even a crash at 25mph with no seatbelt in a mk1 Cortina wouldve been life threatening.

The 70 limit probably is making an impact now, as you say in the 60s few road cars could do 70mph but now even a Fiesta can do 100mph with little trouble but i think even without the limit the traffic levels slow you down anyway. How often on a drive to work on a dual carraigeway on a Monday morning can you actually exceed 70? Not often.

What this does do is blow a massive hole in the theory of those who say 'people should be made to drive older cars with fewer safety features because it actually makes you safer as you feel more vulnerable' as data from the 60s and 70s show that is not the case. The next time someone tells you to drive a basic old car to learn 'proper safety' and that safety features make people more unsafe etc ask them why the death rate on the roads in the 70s was 5 times higher than it was in 2010.

This also backs up the data which says risk to car occupants is now much lower but risk to pedestrians and cyclists hasnt kept pace and i have a theory on that. Cars now are bigger and more difficult to see out of, some University a couple of years ago compared a 2009 Corsa to an Escort from 1984 and found all round visibility out of the Escort to be around 30% more compared to the modern day Corsa. As most pedestrians and cyclists are hit due to a motorist not seeing them this would tally.

Edited by jamie745 on 18/09/2011 at 18:05