Credit Crunch Takes its toll: Volume 7 [Read Only] - rtj70

***** This thread is now closed, please CLICK HERE to go to Volume 8 *****


To continue the debate on the effects of the so called Credit Crunch.

Vol: 6 can be found by clicking:- here


All CC related stuff will be decanted in here.


Keep it relevant, motoring is linked to the crisis, any "Yah Booh Poltics" will be chopped.

Edited by Webmaster on 30/11/2008 at 20:33

Credit Crunch Takes its toll: Volume 7 - rtj70
My wife asked me how much would I have saved on the recent LCD purchase if bought after the VAT is cut. Answer was about £10. Wow what a difference it would have made. I got it on a price match in John Lewis though so waiting might have cost me more - and I obviously didn't know about a VAT cut.

Lets hope the other planned measures will be worth the inevitable tax increases in future.

Edited by rtj70 on 23/11/2008 at 21:34

Credit Crunch Takes its toll: Volume 7 - gordonbennet
Forgive me, but i'm a simple soul.

The alleged cut in VAT, now the chances of buying something made in Britain therefore benefitting our economy are getting more remote by the day, unless i was to buy a car made in Britain....bear with me.
Therefore 99% of goods i am likely to buy will have been made abroad so of little benefit to the British economy apart from...you guessed it ..tax to be payable on the purchase.

Does this mean that our treasury is having a sale, hoping to go on the good old capitalist principles of pile it high and sell it cheap.

Maybe people will take advantage of a 2.5% cut in VAT and make some large purchases, but unless those products were made here, by British companies and workers paying tax and living here permanently whereby their income and other tax stays here, then what will be the benefit?

If i buy a load of foreign made tat, apart from the tax paid, what benefit to our economy, apart from jobs in the distribution chain, and the ever growing pyramid of Govt jobs overseeing the process.

Credit Crunch Takes its toll: Volume 7 - Alby Back
And what's more no benefit at all on business to business transactions where the VAT can already be claimed back anyway.

Flag waving.
Credit Crunch Takes its toll: Volume 7 - Westpig
but unless those products were made here by British companies and workers paying tax
and living here permanently whereby their income and other tax stays here then what will be the benefit?
If i buy a load of foreign made tat apart from the tax paid what
benefit to our economy apart from jobs in the distribution chain and the ever growing
pyramid of Govt jobs overseeing the process.

plus...some people won't really need the tax cut/ don't deserve it, albeit it will be gratefully received no doubt (wealthy/non UK citizens)

so... spend this money on something that directly helps the UK..or does Europe not allow this any more

what about:
- a major cut in fuel tax for hauliers and business?
- major tax advantage for savings? (now there's a thing, actually encourage saving instead of borrowing and buying things you can't afford)
- decent equipment maybe for our armed forces if we're asking them to do a difficult job, get it built and supplied here. If we need aircraft carriers and submarines, then get on with it, have British jobs secured building them.

there must be a host of things that could have long term benefits for the UK, rather than give us all a bit more leeway to buy more stuff abroad at the expense of future tax bills, because it'll have to be paid for one way or another one day. Seems wasteful to me.
Credit Crunch Takes its toll: Volume 7 - rtj70
Well said GB - our government once again not thinking things through I think.
Credit Crunch Takes its toll: Volume 7 - Alby Back
Oh I think they've thought of it alright. VAT is a tax everyone pays and many people won't be bothered to do the maths. Highly visible headless chicken gesture politics that won't actually make much difference except as a spin opportunity.

Edited by Humph Backbridge on 23/11/2008 at 22:26

Credit Crunch Takes its toll: Volume 7 - rtj70
I'd thought of spin and the fact most won't realise the savings are small. And as pointed out if the purchases are not built in the UK it does not help industry.

But VAT is on more than manufactured good - its on petrol and diesel too isn't it. So they are about to go down by around 2p a litre give or take (more for diesel less for petrol). So driving 10000 miles per year at an average 40mpg you might save around £22 :-)
Credit Crunch Takes its toll: Volume 7 - jbif
VAT is a tax everyone pays and many people won't be bothered to do the maths. Highly visible headless chicken gesture politics that won't actually make much difference except as a spin opportunity.

our government once again not thinking things through I think.


Yep.
1. We all know how the interest cut and the easing of credit was supposed to improve the situation for small businesses. However, Banks [despite a lot of arm twisting] are not passing on the benefits to small businesses. Why? Because the treasury wants to charge the Banks a high premium interest for the loans that the Treasury is making to these Banks.

2. VAT - I already know that some retail businesses are planning NOT to pass on the cuts to consumers - i.e. they will not cut their selling prices to customers. So a product on sale today for £117.50 will stay at £117.50, but the business will just pay less vat to the vatman and pocket the difference as an improved margin to help their hard pressed business to survive. These businesses feel that the only thing that the consumer in the high street notices is BIG headline cuts - such as "SALE, save 50%", and a cut in VAT from 17.5 to 15% means nothing to their customers.

3. Imported goods prices are likely to go up by a much higher amount than the VAT cut, as the effect of the 50% drop in value of sterling starts to feed through.
tinyurl.com/68t9ng
"Sony to raise prices by up to a third to offset tumbling value of the pound. "

Credit Crunch Takes its toll: Volume 7 - Optimist
Humph said : >> Highly visible headless chicken gesture politics that won't actually make much difference except as a spin opportunity. >> Probably true but unless a difference is made, the recession will probably be worse and longer lasting.

But many of us on here probably already have most of what they want and can reasonably afford. So what will tempt me to spend? 2.5% cut in VAT? Nope. VED increases shelved? Nope.

Increase in my nett income because of tax reduction? Far more likely. If I'm allowed to retain more of what I earn, it will probably go back into the economy as general spending though probably not on "big ticket" items.

I have a horrible feeling that Brown and Darling will spend money without achieving much in the way of staving off the recession.
Credit Crunch Takes its toll: Volume 7 - ForumNeedsModerating
Perhaps many are missing the point(s) about a VAT rate reduction. It's going to have a cumulative effect - save a bit here, a bit there - the net effect will be more disposable income.
Don't focus on the oh, that's only 10 quid off a tv, it wouldn't make me buy one' , more 'Oh, look I've got £50 more this month'.

VAT is also levied on services. Something we 'make' quite a lot of. Even if headline service costs don't immediately reflect the VAT rate cut, it will give greater flexibility & profitability to businesses. Think of all the local service businesses you employ in one way or another - even the non-VAT registered will benefit as they can't reclaim their VAT - money for small businesses in other words.

No, it won't encourge people to go out & spend more on big ticket items (good - they're mostly made abroad anyway), but we will spend more (or save more) on local or indigenous product
& services.
Credit Crunch Takes its toll: Volume 7 - davidh
Whats all this "it'll cost 12 bn" malarky?

Doesnt it depend on how much gets sold anyway. I would suspect 12 bn is based upon a good year of VAT collection. If we are keeping our hands in our pockets then it will be less than 12 bn cost.

I wont be spending anymore. I doubt I'll see any reductions other than maybe petrol and supermarket who are high profile players and must be "seen" to be chopping cost. Smaller retailers and businesses will be keeping the 2.5 pc chop and who can blame them. If I were a retailer I certainly wouldnt be passing it on. Bit like the banks really.

£50 more a month? - nice little lump to help pay down the cardit card more like.
Credit Crunch Takes its toll: Volume 7 - ForumNeedsModerating
>>£50 more a month? - nice little lump to help pay down the cardit card more like.

So, the banks will have a bit more to lend then - to small businesses perhaps. It all counts.
Credit Crunch Takes its toll: Volume 7 - malteser
Well, I suppose that a VAT cut will reduce the pump price of fuel - until the next increase from OPEC!
OTH - the taxing @ 45% of people earning over £150K per annum is a retrograde step in terms of encouraging high earners to stay and pay their tax in the U.K.
It's interesting that this new swingeing rate is set to kick in at a level in excess of M.P.'s basic salaries, isn't it? Mind you their perks and allowances (untaxed) make the career a nice little earner.

Edited by malteser on 24/11/2008 at 13:47

Credit Crunch Takes its toll: Volume 7 - ForumNeedsModerating
>>OTH - the taxing @ 45% of people earning over £150K per annum is a retrograde step in >>terms of encouraging high earners to stay and pay their tax in the U.K.

Well, if you earn over £40K-odd currently you pay 40% on the marginal amount. So 45% marginal on gross over £150K doesn't look totally unfair to me. Not sure it's enough to precipitate an exodus though - where, these days (of comparable standing) doesn't tax, in one or another, progressively? If these sort of measures are implemented (higher taxes stemming from larger govt. borrowings/defecits) elsewhere in the affected economies, the UK
might even compare preferably.

Credit Crunch Takes its toll: Volume 7 - jbif
Don't focus on the oh, that's only 10 quid off a tv, it wouldn't make me buy one' , more 'Oh, look I've got £50 more this month'.


Except that people won't see the "'Oh, look I've got £50 more this month'".

The way the Retail Trade works is not to price goods as "X" + "v" for VAT = "Y" total, but the price is "Y" of which "v" is for VAT, giving an ex-vat price of "X".

So you have cameras, TVs or sofas or beds or laptops or whatever priced at £99, £199, £249 or £349 or £499, and so on.

I do not think for one minute that come the reduction in VAT, those retailers will start pricing their goods at £96 or £ 195, or £242, or whatever the nearest £ is after accounting for the reduced VAT.

Nor will you see the Poundland or 99p shops suddenly becoming the 97p or 98p shops.

In other words, the ticket price will stay rounded down to the to the 49 or 99 magic figure under each £50 or £100.

Figures just on the lunchtime news estimated that each taxpayer will probably save £200 in VAT annually. That is the amount that VED rates [now to be postponed] were going to be increased by for some people, and that is the amount that the abolition of 10p tax band cost the lower paid.

Credit Crunch Takes its toll: Volume 7 - ForumNeedsModerating
I think that being rather simplistic jbif. The retail trade/ other businesses will compete just as fiercely as they are now, the difference being that they'll have a bit more to compete with come the VAT rate reduction.

Prices will, on average fall through this.

There will also be direct (or more transparent) VAT reductions - petroleum products mainly - this VAT is levied on the retail price which is re-claimable for many business operations. These fuel suppliers will also compete for market share - unless you believe in cartels of course.

I also think businesses, where they can, will make a maketing opprotunity from the VAT rate cut & proudly trumpet their latest reductions & 'challenge' their competitors to do likewise.

Edited by woodbines on 24/11/2008 at 14:07

Credit Crunch Takes its toll: Volume 7 - jbif
will make a maketing opprotunity from the VAT rate cut


I am told reliably that the trade did make a real marketing opportunity of the change from the old d "dence" to the new p "pence" when decimalisation was introduced. :0)

Credit Crunch Takes its toll: Volume 7 - L'escargot
the old d "dence" to the new p "pence" when decimalisation was introduced.


As I recall, d stood for denarius. It was verbally referred to as a penny (singular), or pence (plural). It was the government's intention that the new penny (p) should be called just that initially, with the word "new" being dropped after a suitable length of time. The government was appalled when a lot of the population started calling the new coin a "pee".
Credit Crunch Takes its toll: Volume 7 - smokie
"As I recall, d stood for denarius".

Wow, can't be many backroomers that can remember back THAT far!! :-)
Credit Crunch Takes its toll: Volume 7 - Lud
The government was appalled when a lot of the population started calling the new coin a >> "pee".


I don't think bankers are too keen on the expression 'filthy lucre' either...
Credit Crunch Takes its toll: Volume 7 - L'escargot
'Oh look I've got £50 more this month'.


I calculate that that requires an expenditure of £2300 per month if it's all subject to the new VAT rate of 15%. I should be so lucky!
Credit Crunch Takes its toll: Volume 7 - malden blue
The real shock will come when he announces the governments borrowing requirements

In March he was forecasting approx £25 billion each year for the the next 3 years

It is thought he will be producing new 'guesstimates' of £100 billion+ for each of the next 3 years and thats being optimistic

If foreign investors start to shy away from buying government gilts, (which is how this debt is serviced) the BOE will have to start printing money to buy them instead and the next step is you and me having to carry a wheelbarriow full of money to Tesco's to pay for the weekly shop!

Debt and government borrowing on this scale simply cannot continue
Credit Crunch Takes its toll: Volume 7 - Rattle
Erm the days when I can charge £3000 to format a computer, I will look forward to that :D.

On a more serious note I don't get why people are not buying cars. I am sure the media have made the credit crunch seem far worse than it is? My business seems to be better than ever atm.

But then I charge £30 for basic data recovery, PCWORLD charges £100 and I am literly getting people phoning me up while their in PCWORLD asking how much I charge!

Credit Crunch Takes its toll: Volume 7 - TheOilBurner
I think the PC World example is a fine one of why the credit crunch has been over-egged by the media.

Yes it looks likely that DSG including PC World might go bust, and let's face it they deserve it IMHO.

IMO PC World have (allegedly) modelled their business on preying on the technologically illiterate (not intended to be derogatory in that statement) and charging unreasonable amounts for very simple work. E.g. charging £15 to install a memory upgrade. It can be done literally in less than minute and it is nearly impossible to make a mistake in fitting it.

Sooner or later, treating your customers with such contempt with always going to bite you where it hurts!

It's the car equivilent of charging £500 for an oil and filter change. You might get away with it for a while, but sooner or later someone will come along and charge what it really costs...

Which brings me back to my point, in all this media hype we shouldn't confuse the demise of bad companies with the demise of the economy as a whole. It's more a sort of sifting of the wheat from the chaff and all complex systems under go it periodically in what is known in IT as "garbage collection".
Credit Crunch Takes its toll: Volume 7 - Altea Ego
E.g. charging £15 to install a memory upgrade. It can be done literally in less
than minute and it is nearly impossible to make a mistake in fitting it.


It is remarkably easy to make a mistake. do you know how many different types of memory module have been used in the last 4 years? you are aware of anti static processes? Do it "literally in less than a minute? Nope not a hope - the boot up time takes longer than that.

Based on the value that's obtained in having more memory, 15 quid is not outrageous.


Not defending PC world in general tho. The DSG group will probably be a fallout of this crisis and well they should.
Credit Crunch Takes its toll: Volume 7 - smokie
I thought my fags might get cheaper but apparently not...despite a reduction in VAT to 15% "he was increasing duties on alcohol, tobacco and petrol so they would remain at the price they are now. "

Petrol too? Cheeky whatsit!!

Edited by smokie on 24/11/2008 at 16:38

Credit Crunch Takes its toll: Volume 7 - Screwloose
Petrol too? Cheeky whatsit!!


I've just checked the text of his speech. He did specifically mention "alcohol, tobacco and petrol" - if that was a dumbed-down generalization for all road fuels, then he's actually increased the cost of diesel for all business users - the VAT was recoverable; the extra fuel duty isn't.
Credit Crunch Takes its toll: Volume 7 - malden blue
Simply mind boggling public borrowing figures

The IMF will be getting a phonecall within the year, £118 billion deficit next year and thast based on the economy picking up in the 3rd quarter, no debt repaid till 2016! thats in 2 elections time! if it wasnt so serious you would have to laugh
Credit Crunch Takes its toll: Volume 7 - nick
And the reduction in VAT is temporary, the compensatory duty rises will no doubt be permanent.
Credit Crunch Takes its toll: Volume 7 - Sandgrown
I've just checked the HM Treasury website. Duty on both petrol and diesel will increase by 2p/litre on December 1 and by just under 2p/litre on April 1 2009.
Credit Crunch Takes its toll: Volume 7 - TheOilBurner
It is remarkably easy to make a mistake. do you know how many different types
of memory module have been used in the last 4 years? you are aware of
anti static processes? Do it "literally in less than a minute? Nope not a hope
- the boot up time takes longer than that.


Yep, I'm very aware of the fact that most machines made in the past few years use exactly the same type of memory (with some varying speeds) and it is very easy to find out what kind of memory you have fitted. Sure non-IT people might find it hard, but only because the industry intentionally bamboozles people into thinking it is difficult when it is not.

I don't agree that you can make a mistake, not if you're sensible. I've built several PCs of my own without problems and my anti-static procedure involves touching an earthed metal object (i.e. radiator) - job done. Not hard, just turned into a magical untouchable black art for no good reason. I'm aware of anti-static wrist straps and rubber mats etc and just think it's total overkill, as does everyone else I know successfully building their own machines, and all the tech specialists I've worked with in IT departments over the years.

Admit it AE, installing memory is childs play, it involves just 3 easy steps: look up or ask someone in a shop or online what memory you need, buy new memory from said shop, remove old stuff (if required) and plug new one in. It's not like you can even put it in the wrong way, and if it is completely the wrong type, it won't even fit.
At a push you could add another step: open box and check how many free slots you have.

I bet in PC World from start to end of process it takes no more than a slow pace 10-15 minutes including working out what memory is required, fitting it and testing it afterwards. Not bad is it, £60 an hour for practically unskilled work! OK, it's not exactly BMW Main Dealer labour rates, but then you don't buy the "BMW of computers" from PC World, do you! :) And I'd think we'd all agree that car techs actually require more training to do thier job than the semi-informed lot at PC World.

IMO, £5 is a more reasonable rate for this kind of work.
Credit Crunch Takes its toll: Volume 7 - Altea Ego
Oh ok we have gone from "literally one minute" to 10-15 minutes.

do you know how much it costs to employ someone? no its not the 5.95 minimum wage per hour. do you know how much the credit card company take from the cost when they process the charge? what about VAT? does your man have a steady stream of people so he can run at 4 an hour?

suddenly 15 quid dont seem so much.

Credit Crunch Takes its toll: Volume 7 - merlin
Memory upgrades can be more than "childs play". Having to apply a lot of force the first time a socket is used can be a problem for someone who has not done it before. I've also seen memory sockets located in very difficult places to get to. On one of my old systems I had to take out a couple of HDD to get access.
Credit Crunch Takes its toll: Volume 7 - TheOilBurner
You don't have to apply a lot of force at all, far from it.

Typical ATX motherboards are a piece of cake to work with, a fine piece of design by any standard. Memory sticks and CPUs pop in with zero force and all the bits are well labelled or colour coded with unique fit sockets and connectors. It really is child's play.

And I'm quite sure it doesn't cost £60 an hour to employ a tech guy at PC World, no way.

BTW, this sure seems reminiscent of very similar arguments made over the years re: car servicing eh?
Credit Crunch Takes its toll: Volume 7 - rtj70
This is turning into a computer problem thread ;-) Merlin is right that on some systems components like hard drives need removing to reach the slots. I've built at least one home PC for myself like that - it's a case problem.

But still think the PC World costs high. PC World staff also know very little about PCs. I know someone who worked in the repair bit that knows/knew nothing about PCs at all. Zilch.
Credit Crunch Takes its toll: Volume 7 - bbroomlea{P}
It was a bit silly of us buying a new car yesterday and a new TV the weekend before. I am about £300 out of pocket if you calculate the 2.5% cut. Not overly impressed!! Now if they were serious about spending they would give me that back so I can go and buy something else on the highstreet.
Credit Crunch Takes its toll: Volume 7 - merlin
Not sure which motherboards you are using. The first time I installed memory in a slot that hadn't been used before it wouldn't go in. I rang the crucial helpline where I bought it from and was told I had to apply a significant amount of force and that this is often the case for slots that had never seen memory before. Maybe crucial memory is on the large size...

I'm sure you are right about it not costing £60 an hour to employ a tech guy at PC World like it doesn't cost a car dealer £100 to employ a mechanic. However getting back to the credit crunch the shop floor wage costs are not where the money is (was?) going. It's all the other overheads such as the need for the shop (or dealership) to look flash, crazy land / property prices etc.
Credit Crunch Takes its toll: Volume 7 - Altea Ego
And I'm quite sure it doesn't cost £60 an hour to employ a tech guy
at PC World no way.


so profit is a bad word in oliburnerland then? you may not be aware of this but tis stuff liek this that keeps us employed?




Credit Crunch Takes its toll: Volume 7 - TheOilBurner
Ah yes, but coming back full circle to the credit crunch theme, sensible profit is good, obscene profit will ensure that someone, somewhere will offer the same product for less and put you out of business!

And that is what I believe the credit crunch is really about. Over the past few years many inefficient, pointless and/or badly run companies have been going strong, but their luck does not and cannot last forever. DSG group is one of them, Woolies another. Plenty has been said about the banks too.

Nope profit is good, but the price has to be right for the service offered. If it wasn't for our natural inclination to trust high street shops over internet retailers and big name service deals (i.e. Tech Guys vs independent computer repairs/upgrade services or British Gas Boiler Repair vs local Corgi bloke), then shops like PC World would have been blasted into the abyss years ago. The only value added for the high prices and inferior products and service is that element of perceived trust. Nothing more IMO.
Credit Crunch Takes its toll: Volume 7 - Altea Ego
Ok bring it round to my place.

that will be 15 quid. That frankly would be my minimum charge for anything.
Credit Crunch Takes its toll: Volume 7 - TheOilBurner
Fair enough, any better offers? Rattle? ;)
Credit Crunch Takes its toll: Volume 7 - Rattle
Sorry to post late for this post, have been working. I have probably upgraded RAM on about 100 computers and in the past ten years (3 inc my business) I have used the following:-

30 pin SIMMS (make my Fiesta seem modern!)
72-pin SIMMS (in when my Fiesta was made) some were parity some were not parity. Had to be installed in pairs.
168 pin SD-RAM DIMM and within there was PC66, PC100 and PC133 varients, and then some had to be registered some weren't. Then some motherboard would only take upto 64MB DIMMs, others upto 512MB.
DDR - This did make things simpler but you still had to get the speed right otherwise they would overheat, there are other considerations such as voltage too.
DD2- Simple again but you still have to get the right speed.

Also with laptop SODIMMs it is possible to install completly the wrong kind fo RAM if you're heavy handed.

.*********

Where PCWORLD have gone wrong is £80 standard repair charges. Apart from motherboard changes I fail to see what repair could possible cost so much, remember this excludes parts. A new hard drive maybe as you have to reinstall the operating system/drivers etc so £80 is fair enough, but £80 to change a DVDRW?

I do go to PCWORLD as away and it always makes me laugh the way the answer to all softwatre faults seems to be Format C: /q.

Will I be sorry if the credit crunch means an end to DSG? Yes I will be, I used to work for them and I did not agree some of the sales policies they were ok to work for. I left as I could not sleep at night selling USB cables for £15. I will miss then as Curry's is always an interesting shop, like Halfords you probably would not buy much from there but they always have interestign stuff to look at.

PCWORLD need to target the geek market more, lets see some proper brand power supplies in there, I need to buy a new onwe for mine as it is getting noisy, want to spend around £50, I very much doubt it will be spent in PCW.





Credit Crunch Takes its toll: Volume 7 - Rattle
Indeed, I have some jobs for £15 if they are within 10 minute walking distance and the job takes me less than half an hour. Usually its £20 mininum though. RAM jobs as I tend to do while I am doing other stuff so I can compete with the computer shops.
Credit Crunch Takes its toll: Volume 7 - jbif
Indeed, I have some jobs for £15 if they are within 10 minute walking distance and the job takes me less than half an hour. Usually its £20 mininum though.


Indeed Rattle's charges do seem very reasonable. Questions for Rattle:
Is your turnover over the VAT threshold?
Are your registered for VAT?
Is your business inspected by HSE?
Do you have to prepare accounts for the stock exchange?
What car/van do you use for your business? Does it meet minimum HSE requirements?
Is it insured to carry your business gear?
How much does your public liability insurance cost?
Do you pay business rates to the local council?
What proportion of your costs is attributed to heating and lighting and water rates?
How do you meet the WEEE regulations?
etc. etc.

Credit Crunch Takes its toll: Volume 7 - Rattle
A lot of questions

Indeed Rattle's charges do seem very reasonable. Questions for Rattle:
Is your turnover over the VAT threshold? No where near, I don't sell computers or anything, very rarely I will supply a computer at a small premium for posh people who don't have the time to buy it themselves.
Are your registered for VAT? Nope no point.
Is your business inspected by HSE? Nope, I have no employees and I am not LTD.
Do you have to prepare accounts for the stock exchange? Nope just inland revenue.
What car/van do you use for your business? Does it meet minimum HSE requirements?
Is it insured to carry your business gear? Yep it is actually insured for my business, inc transit of business equipment. This puts my premiums up slightly.
How much does your public liability insurance cost? £10 a month, its a low risk business.
Do you pay business rates to the local council? Don't need to, only a small portion of my parents dining room is used for my business, and around 5% of my bedroom.
What proportion of your costs is attributed to heating and lighting and water rates? Don't claim its not my house.
How do you meet the WEEE regulations? I recycle all used equipment and store it in my shed for a rainy day :D

I know what you're saying PCWORLD have much higher running costs, they also have a much higher amount of customers. I get 2-3 a day if I am lucky, I imagine PCWORLD repair 20 plus a day at each store.

I do however run my business by the book, I pay income tax, national insurance, have a business account, have public liability insurance, have business car insurance, have accounts going back 3 years, have all the receipts etc etc. I did also have high advertising costs but this is thankfully falling and only spend around £20 on month on advertising (need to increase this when I get more efficient and handle more work).

I am busy, but there is a reason why I drive a £350 car :). I wonder what the head of DSG drives?
Credit Crunch Takes its toll: Volume 7 - jbif
I can imagine that with all those overheads, your £15 or £20 rate amounts to less than a net £6 per hour, i.e. minimum wage rate.
I am busy, but there is a reason why I drive a £350 car :).

Well, we all know now. We all need to have your work ethic in the rest of the British industry, if we are to compete with the Chinese and Indians. Charge 75% less for labour, and make do with £350 worth of a Fiesta as the company car.
I wonder what the head of DSG drives?

More relevant question is: What do the tech-guys at DSG drive?

Edited by jbif on 24/11/2008 at 23:42

Credit Crunch Takes its toll: Volume 7 - Rattle
Yep I don';t get it, I will admit we used Kwkfit to fit my dads Exhaust, £50 all in and they have actually done an amazingly good job, it was the cheapest quote and it seems to be a high quality unit. We only used them as we knew they could do it there and then, where as our mechanic would have probably taken 6 weeks.

For anything else though we avoid the national companies like a plague. I also hope a lot of the big double glazing firms finally pay for the years they have ripped of their customers.
Credit Crunch Takes its toll: Volume 7 - movilogo
Tata is secretly asking for £1 bn loan from UK gov

tinyurl.com/6pb3jr

Edited by movilogo on 24/11/2008 at 21:33

Credit Crunch Takes its toll: Volume 7 - Rattle
I am sure we could all see that coming.
Credit Crunch Takes its toll: Volume 7 - Altea Ego
secretly? it was all over todays times.
Credit Crunch Takes its toll: Volume 7 - Baskerville
And yesterday's Observer.
Credit Crunch Takes its toll: Volume 7 - tawse
SNIP -

This, and several other NON MOTORING related posts removed. Apologies if anything related to motoring was removed in the deletion process. DD

Edited by Dynamic Dave on 25/11/2008 at 10:22

Credit Crunch Takes its toll: Volume 7 - tawse
That's not nice >> SNIP -
This and several other NON MOTORING related posts removed. Apologies if anything related to motoring
was removed in the deletion process. DD


That's not nice. Simply followed on from what several other people were saying about PC World versus White Van Man businesses. Nothing offensive in the harmless post and yet mine has been deleted whilst all the other PC World posts remain.

Not a nice feeling I have to say. Not nice at all. Kind of feel singled out.

Credit Crunch Takes its toll: Volume 7 - Dynamic Dave
Kind of feel singled out.


You weren't singled out. From what I recall your post had no motoring content, and what followed didn't have either - hence the removal of yours and several other posts. At some point (when I get time) other parts of this thread may get chopped and edited as well. At the end of the day this is a motoring related website and if the discussion keeps sidetracking from that theme then the whole thread may well become locked.

DD.
Credit Crunch Takes its toll: Volume 7 - Manatee
I'm struggling with the logic on the VAT cut. The people most likely to spend any extra dosh are presumably those on lowest incomes who of necessity spend all they have - but they spend most of it on fuel and food, to which a reduction in the standard VAT rate will make no difference. The better off who are tightening their belts will surely just save a bit more, rather than go out and buy a new car?

Wouldn't it have been better just to give the £13bn to the poorest in society?
Credit Crunch Takes its toll: Volume 7 - Another John H
>>>>I'm struggling with the logic on the VAT cut.

I think the argument goes something like this:

DD doesn't want to give people more money in their pockets, in case they save it, DD wants people to spend, so reduces prices by adjusting VAT as much as he can.

Just shows how muddled and out of touch government is - it'll cost them/us a fortune in lost VAT but it won't make any difference to spending.

Would a few hundred pounds be enough to sway you into buying a new car at the moment?

No? I didn't think so.

There are too many other factors, including:

will it be cheaper in a few weeks? - maybe, maybe not long term with evaluation of the £
will I have a job through the current economic difficulties?
you're offering me how much for my old car?!!
Credit Crunch Takes its toll: Volume 7 - Baskerville
Would a few hundred pounds be enough to sway you into buying a new car
at the moment?
No? I didn't think so.


Prices are going to come down regardless of the VAT cut because we are in a deflationary period now. But this give retailers a little more leeway to cut prices and it might--here's the gamble--mean that some of them stay in business that otherwise wouldn't. That means a reduced impact on unemployment and that in turn means more people with money in their pockets when the outlook does begin to seem better.

The idea that all that was intended by this was to reduce prices a tiny amount so that people go out immediately and buy stuff is daft. Reducing VAT has a much wider effect than that. Whether it works or not we'll see soon enough, but doing nothing is not an option.

Mind you, the govt. is being far too optimistic about when the economy will recover.
Credit Crunch Takes its toll: Volume 7 - Manatee
The following was just sent to me as an explanation of how stock markets work. It strikes me as quite a good explanation of how an economic crisis develops - perhaps the doom mongers could bear it in mind ;-)


It was autumn, and the Red Indians asked their New Chief if the winter was going to be cold or mild. Since he was a Red Indian chief in a modern society, he couldn't really tell what the weather was going to be. So to be on the safe side, he replied to his Tribe that the winter was indeed going to be cold and that the members of the village should collect wood to be prepared.

Being a practical leader, after several days he got an idea. He went to the phone booth, called the National Weather Service and asked 'Is the coming winter going to be cold?'

'It looks like this winter is going to be quite cold indeed,' the weather man responded.

So the Chief went back to his people and told them to collect even more wood. A week later, he called the National Weather Service again.

'Is it going to be a very cold winter?'

'Yes,' the man at National Weather Service again replied, 'It's definitely going to be a very cold winter.'

The Chief again went back to his people and ordered them to collect every scrap of wood they could find.

Two weeks later, he called the National Weather Service again. 'Are you absolutely sure that the winter is going to be very cold?'

'Absolutely,' The Man replied. 'It's going to be one of the coldest winters ever.'

'How can you be so sure?' the Chief asked.

The weatherman replied, 'The Red Indians are collecting wood like crazy.'

Edited by Manatee on 25/11/2008 at 07:40

Credit Crunch Takes its toll: Volume 7 - jbif
It strikes me as quite a good explanation of how an economic crisis develops


There is currently an excellent [IMO] series on channel 4:
The Ascent of Money
www.channel4.com/history/microsites/A/ascent-of-mo...l
In this six-part series, historian Niall Ferguson tells the story of money and the rise of global finance. Bringing context and understanding to the current economic crisis, he reveals how the history of finance has been punctuated by gut-wrenching crashes. Each episode shows how a big bang in the ascent of money has changed the course of history.


Worth watching, irrespective of the credit crunch.

Credit Crunch Takes its toll: Volume 7 - ForumNeedsModerating
>>Worth watching, irrespective of the credit crunch.

Second that.

Interesting progamme about govt. bonds - their genesis & history - on Sunday.
Some broadcasters do seem to have the knack of making even the driest of subjects interesting & relevant.

I've got a feeling though, we're all going to know a lot more about govt. bonds in the future - it's how Mr Darling is hoping to finance his 'borrow to spend' strategy (...and all the rest of it).

Credit Crunch Takes its toll: Volume 7 - L'escargot
The so-called credit crunch hasn't altered the amount of money I spend, and the drop in VAT from 17.5% to 15% certainly won't. I can't think there's anything I could do which would alter the state of the economy. In fact I just don't understand what's supposed to be happening to the economy.
Credit Crunch Takes its toll: Volume 7 - boxsterboy
So with VAT reduced, what was £9.99 will now be £9.78. Doesn't have the same ring about it, does it? The retailers will keep the price at £9.99 and increase their margins at their benefit and everyone else's loss!
Credit Crunch Takes its toll: Volume 7 - malden blue
Just talked to a car leasing company that I have done business with in Yorkshire for the last 10 years and they are closing down, my contact the guy I feel that I know very well (though I have never met him in person) sounded pretty down, says he has never known anything like it and that most other firms in the sector are teetering on the brink, he phoned me to thank me for the business we had put his way down the years fair play to him

Though we stopped going down the lease route last year and bought our vehicles outright due to the crippling tax rises

What worried him most he said besides the fact the firm that he had worked for, for years on end was the fact that the prospects of getting another job looked pretty slim
Credit Crunch Takes its toll: Volume 7 - nick
Sadly, I expect we'll see the crime and suicide statistics get worse.
Credit Crunch Takes its toll: Volume 7 - Altea Ego
New cars and houses are probably the only things that 99% of the population buy on credit (in some way shape or form or backed up by credit)

These two things are businesses you really dont want to be in at the moment.
Credit Crunch Takes its toll: Volume 7 - malden blue
carsand everything to do with them sales, repair etc
construction
retail
manufacturing
printing
hospitality
pubs
restaurants

oh ferrkrissakes anything not to do with the public sector is business you dont want to be in at the moment :-)

I looked at our local paper last night in the job vacancies section, about 10 lines of 'real' jobs and ten whole pages of local government, health service, teaching jobs etc, no credit crunch there!
Credit Crunch Takes its toll: Volume 7 - Robin Reliant
Local government are going to find out how important the motorist is to them when the car industry ends up crippled in the next few months. They have spent years demonising car drivers and doing everything they can to get us out of our vehicles, but when the biggest private sector industry in the country is no more and council tax income plummets because of mass unemployment they will find that many of their own jobs have to disappear too.
Credit Crunch Takes its toll: Volume 7 - malden blue
but if diversity awareness officers, Elf 'n Safety naz...erh advisors etc end up getting the sack how will society function?
Credit Crunch Takes its toll: Volume 7 - movilogo
will it be cheaper in a few weeks? - maybe, maybe not long term with evaluation of the £
will I have a job through the current economic difficulties?
you're offering me how much for my old car?!!


Last but not the least, do I really NEED a new car??

In UK (and most developed countries), most people have almost everything. Majority of buying nowadays are just upgrading to a more expensive model (car, mobile phone, TV, clothes etc.)
People buy goods [1] they need it (eg food, fuel etc.) [2] they want it (eg diamond rings etc.)

In this downturn, most people will put off buying items in category [2]
Credit Crunch Takes its toll: Volume 7 - madf
Remember how councils demonised us for not recycling?

Unfortunately instead of recycling in the UK most is exported to China or elsewhere.. Now the prices have collapsed as China is not buying due to reduced demand.

So rubbish may end up in landfill.

Expect to see some very angry ratepayers who have been fined for not recycling.

Ditto prices of scrap cars have collapsed as the demand for steel has fallen due to motor manufacturing cutbacks..

Green and recycling is good if the economics are soundly based.

Little of the UK's are.

Now we are only going to have a mild recession says Mr Darling. The OECD disagree..

news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7747757.stm


As for spending cutting back, the Government will not... Got to keep the client state happy


Edited by madf on 25/11/2008 at 14:40

Credit Crunch Takes its toll: Volume 7 - Baskerville
I looked at our local paper last night in the job vacancies section about 10
lines of 'real' jobs and ten whole pages of local government health service teaching jobs
etc no credit crunch there!


Why don't you apply for one then?

It wouldn't be to do with either the qualifications required or the pay offered would it? Interesting that you think healthcare and teaching are not 'real' jobs, but maybe the scare quotes are giving away your real feelings.

I do find it amusing the way people complain about how tough it is in the 'real world' of business and how cushy it is in the public sector, yet in good economic times there are always vacancies in the public sector and posts go unfilled.
VAT Anomaly - Armitage Shanks {p}
It was raised on the news that businesses will have goods in stock on which they have paid VAT @17.5% and on which, when they sell them, they can only reclaim 15%. I don't understand VAT but I magine that the BBC do.That does not sound lke a good deal for businesses.
VAT Anomaly - madf
Differences in VAT rates are settled with quarterly bills to HMCE and have no profit impact.
VAT Anomaly - Falkirk Bairn
It was raised on the news that businesses will have goods in stock on which
they have paid VAT @17.5% and on which when they sell them they can only
reclaim 15%.


VAT Reg businesses paid VAT in £££s not %ages. They receive VAT in £££s not %ages. £

In a business say they paid £60K on VAT Purchases and billed £100K on sales they have to remit £40K to the Tax man. The %ages are irrelevant.

A Builder of new houses pays 17.5% on most purchases but sells homes @ 0% therefore gets a cheque from the VAT man. On repairs he bills VAT and sets this off against his purchases VAT.



My son bills at 17.5% and remits 12.5% as he is a one man band with a small turnover so does not calculate is VAT on purchases - he keeps 5% as an industry average for his profession. After Monday he will bill his clients @l at 15% and presumably remit 10% or slightly more!
VAT Anomaly - GJD
It was raised on the news that businesses will have goods in stock on which
they have paid VAT @17.5% and on which when they sell them they can only
reclaim 15%. I don't understand VAT but I magine that the BBC do.That does not
sound lke a good deal for businesses.


That was raised on the BBCs live webchat with some tax expert chappie too. I can't find the page again to check what he said but as I recall it's not a problem.

I'm not a VAT expert at all so don't base any business decisions on my ramblings, but I don't think there is any concept of keeping individual records of how much VAT is spent on buying or charged on selling each individual item that the business touches. Add up the total amount of VAT you charged to all your customers. Add up the total amount of VAT you paid to all your suppliers. Don't worry about different VAT percentages, or the individual amounts of VAT on individual items - just the grand totals in actual pounds and pence. Subtract the second from the first and that's what you owe the VAT man. So in principle: buy something for £100 + VAT this week (£117.50) from a supplier, then sell it for £100 + VAT next week (£115.00) to a customer and the VAT man owes you £2.50.

I'm sure it's more complicated than that but I think that's the essence of it.
Credit Crunch Takes its toll: Volume 7 - nick
>>how tough it is in the 'real world' of business

I think the point to be made is that public sector jobs consume wealth (however worthy the job) and private sector firms generate wealth. Plus public sector pensions are for the most part an unfunded liabilty for future generations of taxpayers to fund. I speak as an ex-public sector employee, this isn't an anti-PS rant, merely a statement of facts as I see them. There are far too many non-jobs like Outreach workers etc IMHO.
Credit Crunch Takes its toll: Volume 7 - Baskerville
>>how tough it is in the 'real world' of business
I think the point to be made is that public sector jobs consume wealth (however
worthy the job) and private sector firms generate wealth.


Is that true though? What about the people made better who can carry on working? Or the kids who are educated and can get jobs so they generate wealth in the private sector? Or the roads fixed so that we can get to work? I think this point you make is a very, very narrow one.

Plus public sector pensions are for
the most part an unfunded liabilty for future generations of taxpayers to fund. I speak
as an ex-public sector employee this isn't an anti-PS rant merely a statement of facts
as I see them. There are far too many non-jobs like Outreach workers etc IMHO.


The pension issue is as much to do with demographics as anything else. And it turns out quite a lot of pension companies, managing their schemes through dodgy financial instruments, have done their bit to drag us all down. Public sector pensions have been used by successive govts as a perk to attract employees to relatively low-paid work too. A politically-driven delaying of the inevitable. The big pension liability we see now is the result of cost-cutting on pay twenty-thirty years ago. Same applies to Ford and GM in the US.
Credit Crunch Takes its toll: Volume 7 - Falkirk Bairn
> The big pension liability we see now is the result
of cost-cutting on pay twenty-thirty years ago. Same applies to Ford and GM in the
US.


the Govt does not have a Pension fund of money for Public Sector Pensions or a fund to pay OAP Pensions.

Today's OAP Pensions are paid by today's workers.
Today's Public Sector Pensions are paid by current employee contributions (in the main) and the tax man making up the difference.

How much better we would all have been my putting aside oil & gas revenue taxes(As per Norway) instead of spending it on tax cuts that have funded a housing boom. This in turn fed a consumer boom on borrowed money) that has been supported by inflated house prices & mortgages by borrowing from Japan, China and the Middle East.
Credit Crunch Takes its toll: Volume 7 - Baskerville
That's my point. Past governments offered big pensions to public sector workers in lieue of low(er) pay. They said it would be paid for by 'growth'. But the demographics, and now the approaching depression say otherwise.
Credit Crunch Takes its toll: Volume 7 - Altea Ego
borrowing from Japan, China and the Middle East.

that's the problem we didn't borrow the money for the housing boom from them. We serviced it internally. Its our banks stuck with the toxic debt, not the middle east or china.
Credit Crunch Takes its toll: Volume 7 - jbif
Or the roads fixed so that we can get to work?

Which councils have their own in-house road building/repair teams? [excluding the pen pushers who never have to lift a shovel].
The pension issue is as much to do with demographics ..

I thought the demographics link was all to do with state sector defined benefit guaranteed inflation linked "final-salary" schemes.
Demographics plays little no direct part in the schemes [including final salary ones] which are funded by the employer and.or employee, such as "money-purchase" schemes or self employed "private-pension-plans" or SIPPs.

But I may be wrong, as you will no doubt tell me.

Credit Crunch Takes its toll: Volume 7 - colinh
"...I don't think there is any concept of keeping individual records of how much VAT is spent on buying or charged on selling each individual item that the business touches..."

Somebody obviously hasn't had the VATperson do an audit
Credit Crunch Takes its toll: Volume 7 - malden blue
'''''''That's my point. Past governments offered big pensions to public sector workers in lieue of low(er) pay. They said it would be paid for by 'growth'. But the demographics, and now the approaching depression say otherwise. '''''''



The lower pay bit is a myth, the average public sector worker earns more than the average private sector worker



So they get:
more pay
longer holidays
more time off sick
retire earlier
are unsackable
jobs for life
massive index linked pensions

I'll bet they have nicer cars too! (the motoring connection) :-)

Edited by malden blue on 25/11/2008 at 17:10

Credit Crunch Takes its toll: Volume 7 - Robin Reliant
The lower pay bit is a myth the average public sector worker earns more than
the average private sector worker

I was about to post the same. The unions are fond of telling us how low paid public sector workers are, and quoting basic pay as proof. But from my own days working for a local authority my wages were double the quoted basic once all the various enhancements and allowances had been added on.
Credit Crunch Takes its toll: Volume 7 - Baskerville
The pension issue is as much to do with demographics ..

I thought the demographics link was all to do with state sector defined benefit guaranteed inflation linked "final-salary" schemes.

That's what I was talking about.

>Demographics plays little no direct part in the schemes [including final salary ones] which are >funded by the employer and.or employee, such as "money-purchase" schemes or self employed >"private-pension-plans" or SIPPs.

Contracted out pension schemes (such as the Universities Superannuation Scheme) are just as stuffed as in the private sector since they are, in fact, in the private sector. And early retirement there is just as unlikely.
Credit Crunch Takes its toll: Volume 7 - davidh
Ermmm, Teaching is a proper job.
Credit Crunch Takes its toll: Volume 7 - Robin Reliant
Ermmm Teaching is a proper job.

Not for three months of the year, though.
Credit Crunch Takes its toll: Volume 7 - davidh
Not that old chestnut :-)))

I think they need it.

Look on the "overhead" of Teachers salaries as investment in the countries most important asset = people.
Credit Crunch Takes its toll: Volume 7 - Optimist
I've said this before. If the public sector offers so many benefits why don't those identifying the advantages go and work in it?

Credit Crunch Takes its toll: Volume 7 - hooterml
I looked at our local paper last night in the job vacancies section about 10
lines of 'real' jobs and ten whole pages of local government health service teaching jobs
etc no credit crunch there!

What??????

Look, if there were loads of teaching jobs I can tell you the only reason is that they local authority need bodies at the front of class rooms in front of children. Bizarrely enough they don't just employ teachers to hang about schools waiting for a pupil to turn up. They are there with a specific workload (ie classes to teach at set times). Most local authorities employ the minimum amount of teachers required.

The alternative is no teacher in front of the children - then the children are sent home (any parents fancy the taking time off to look after them?) Or short term cover teachers, not necessarily with qualifications in the subject they are having to cover - not the most desirable situation for parents of examination aged pupils.

Local government management is a whole different subject.

As a council tax payer I want no cuts in people who interact with the public. If someone teaches kids, feeds kids, cleans schools, looks after old folk in council homes or their own home, empties bins, etc, etc I'd like left alone to do what I think is a valuable service.

Now the well paid management jobs at county halls........ for me that's a completely different matter. If you're going to cut, then surely you cut the folk who don't impact directly on the public.

I suspect though that when the local government cuts come - management will survive in tact, and teachers who actually teach, and care workers who actually care, will be the 1st to go.

Credit Crunch Takes its toll: Volume 7 - Dynamic Dave
Back to motoring related discussion - or I'll just delete the whole damn thread.

DD.

Credit Crunch Takes its toll: Volume 7 - Hector Brocklebank
Shame, I was finding it most interesting. I think it is important for people to confront their prejudices, and as visitors to this particular site are likely to possess more than a modicum of intelligence, perhaps this is a good place to do it? So long as there are reasoned arguments and none of the mud-slinging associated with politicians, but I'm sure nobody here would stoop that low!
Credit Crunch Takes its toll: Volume 7 - daveyjp
I was at a conference today and unusually the last speaker kept us awake. He was a very senior banker from a private bank who aren't too affected by the current mess due to the nature of their business.

He has been in banking 30 years and he was honest saying that he didn't understand 90% of the 'products' traded in the banking industry.

One product is no more than a bet that someone borrowing from a bank will actually pay it off (a highly risky form of debt swapping). There are at least 70 trillion of these betting slips in the world economy - in the UK this trading is completely unregulated.

Securitisation of debts became so silly that one part of a bank would sell a debt only for another part of it buy it back a few transactions later, not knowing the original debt was theirs.
Credit Crunch Takes its toll: Volume 7 - john farrar
Once upon a time, when money was tight, the "average" motorist would have been able to do the basic servicing of their car . Most drivers now , for whatever reason, will not be capable of carrying out such tasks. Will the "credit crunch" result in more accidents, breakdowns etc?
Who, if anyone, will benefit?
Credit Crunch Takes its toll: Volume 7 - Alby Back
Interesting point John. I was at my local indy garage yesterday for some new tyres. They were very quiet which is not normal for them. Chatting to them while trying not to read or think too hard about my bill I asked them if they had seen a downturn in business. They told me that quite a few of their regulars were asking for simple oil and filter changes when they really should be having a full service. Quite worrying really, given that brakes etc. may be being left longer.......

Edited by Humph Backbridge on 25/11/2008 at 21:06

Credit Crunch Takes its toll: Volume 7 - rtj70
Well, things are bad when Toyota's credit rating is downgraded from AAA to AA. If this happens to them then GM and Ford will be junk soon if not already.

To show how many unsold cars Toyota seem to have, this is apparently a recent aerial photo of a military airfield in Oxfordshire showing thousands of Toyotas parked up...

tinyurl.com/6rgebh

What I don't understand is why not scale back production a little before it got this bad? I can see cheap Toyota's soon. Toyota will obviously survive but what about those that supply them - they only assemble the cars. They will have seats, etc. made on demand and brought in just in time.

Edited by rtj70 on 26/11/2008 at 11:11

Credit Crunch Takes its toll: Volume 7 - movilogo
Holy cow! That's hell lot of cars!

But I thought Google images were usually few years old.

Credit Crunch Takes its toll: Volume 7 - rtj70
I thought that too but found the link in a news article from the paper we cannot link to. They mention brokers in Tokyo had been circulating the photos. If it's truely a picture of Toyotas (can't zoom in enough to see) then that's frightening really.
Credit Crunch Takes its toll: Volume 7 - Altea Ego
thats Upper Heyford, just of the M40, and its been like that for 12 months since i last checked GE. Its not just toyotas. Its all makes.
Credit Crunch Takes its toll: Volume 7 - jbif
thats Upper Heyford just of the M40 and its been like that for 12 months since i last checked GE. Its not just toyotas. Its all makes.


Yes, an image of this location was being circulated in emails at least over a year ago. Of course, the view may have been updated since then, but the airfield was just as full last year.
They mention brokers in Tokyo had been circulating the photos.

Someone maybe exploiting the opportunity to use this image to drive down Toyota's stock price.

"bird's eye" views on maps.live.co.uk

Edited by jbif on 26/11/2008 at 11:37

Credit Crunch Takes its toll: Volume 7 - Alanovich
Movilogo, Google images of my area have been updated since this August. I can tell because I can see the car which I bought on 1st August outside. I can also see myself hanging out washing in the back garden. I know it's me because my wife is a dedicated tumble dryer addict and has never hung anything on the line, despite me waving our horrific electricity bill under her nose.
Credit Crunch Takes its toll: Volume 7 - mike hannon
Why not just cut the plug off the tumble drier?
Am I the one who believes that biting the bullet with a ban on tumble driers and washing up machines would slash power consumption across the developed world and start to repair the hole in the ozone layer?
Remember when it was fashionable to worry about climate change before all the fuss about economic crisis took over?
But we can't have people washing dishes and (except Alanovich) hanging out washing in today's world can we?
Credit Crunch Takes its toll: Volume 7 - smokie
From the Beeb:

"Families have started to spend less on package holidays and clothing before the full effect of the credit crunch struck, official figures have shown.

Spending on such items was lower in 2007 than in 2006, with expenditure on women's underwear seeing one of the largest falls, statistics show."

also

"The biggest single category of spending was transport.

It found that in 2007, the average family spent £61.70 a week on transport, some 13% of total average household expenditure. This was led by fuel and servicing of family cars, although the lay-out on rail and Underground fares was also up."


Full article here news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7749929.stm

Doesn't mention tumble driers...

I can see the currant bun's headline now... "Underwear down, we're staying at home"

Edited by smokie on 26/11/2008 at 11:50

Credit Crunch Takes its toll: Volume 7 - jbif
with expenditure on women's underwear seeing one of the largest falls, statistics show." ... I can see the currant bun's headline now... "Underwear down, we're staying at home"


Is this not to do with the ladettes following the fashion trend started by some "celebs" who go commando, and are forever getting photos of their buns splashed across the current bun?

Credit Crunch Takes its toll: Volume 7 - Alby Back
I won't let my wife use the dishwasher except as a special treat on Christmas Day.

I do, however, permit her to buy up to two pairs of Marigolds a year........

;-)

Edited by Humph Backbridge on 26/11/2008 at 11:54

Credit Crunch Takes its toll: Volume 7 - Optimist
It's amazing that cars should be stockpiled in what I thought was the age of "just in time" manufacture and production.

Also amazing that the advisers to the car manufacturers didn't see some inkling of this credit crunch and advise them to slow down. Most new cars are bought on borrowed money. If times are hard, people can't or won't borrow. And I suppose the cars now standing around were built with borrowed money. Amazing the advisers to the car manufacturers didn't see the risk there either. And if the manufacturers can't service the loans or re-finance they will be downgraded by the credit assessors. But they didn't see this fall-out either.

How long can cars sit round and still be worth having?
Credit Crunch Takes its toll: Volume 7 - Hector Brocklebank
How long can cars sit round and still be worth having?


I suppose there are lots of cars sitting in fields with rusty disks looking for a buyer. A lot of them will have taken their first years hit in depreciation before they are even registered!
Credit Crunch Takes its toll: Volume 7 - Baskerville
Why not just cut the plug off the tumble drier?
Am I the one who believes that biting the bullet with a ban on tumble
driers and washing up machines


Tumble driers are one thing, because the alternative is free, but washing up machines use less power and less water than washing up in the sink.
Credit Crunch Takes its toll: Volume 7 - malden blue
Woolworths and MFI went bust today, 30,000 jobs down the swanny with probably another 30,000 effected indirectly



A number of job losses simply too huge to contemplate, the 11 job losses at the car leasing company that I used to use that went under today aswell is much easier for me to grasp

Credit Crunch Takes its toll: Volume 7 - madf
The administrators will no doubt keep some stores open to sell stock so not all jobs will go at once.

Further evidence - if any is needed - that the US consumer is slowing down.

Durable goods orders (white goods) down 6% in October - worst since 1982..

money.cnn.com/2008/11/26/news/economy/durable_orde...9

I suspect US November car sales will not be clever either.

In my view any suggestion that this recession will be short and shallow
is - misguided? naive?..

Read: Roger Bootle who FORECAST this mess..
(He's a top economist and mostly boringly correct)..

www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financetopics/budget/3...l


New car sales for November in UK will be bad... how bad will have to see.
Credit Crunch Takes its toll: Volume 7 - PhilW
Madf,
Do you think this reduction in VAT will have any beneficial effect? I can see that it will reduce car prices somewhat, though whether it makes a significant difference when prices seem to be dropping like a stone anyway is surely debatable? As for other goods; when stores like M&S, Debenhams etc are advertising "20%" or "25% off" everything it makes me wonder whether the odd 2% via VAT will make any difference. (Especially when it apparently does not have any effect on petrol or household fuel prices or food.)
Comments?
Phil
Credit Crunch Takes its toll: Volume 7 - corblimeyguvnar
Happy days, just got my yearly pension statement through, it has lost 25% in value since last year.
Makes me wonder why I have bothered paying into it for 20 years, should have just saved up and bought a Lambo or something similar, depreciation would have about the same as me pension.
Ho Hum

CBG
Credit Crunch Takes its toll: Volume 7 - harib
Another day - another dealership goes into administration. This time it's the Solent Motor Group in Portsmouth which comprised of:

Solent Citroen
Solent Mazda
Solent Nissan
Petworth Car Sales

www.portsmouth.co.uk/news/Shock-as-four-car-dealer...p
Credit Crunch Takes its toll: Volume 7 - madf
PhilW
"Do you think this reduction in VAT will have any beneficial effect"

Slight imo and not significant.

Problem is consumer confidence and incomes squeezed.

Is it significant? Not compared to retailer discounts.
(I bought a washing machine on-line saving 20% versus a shop.. so 2.5% is small beer)

Will it make people spend more?

Only those who spend spend anyway.

The history of recessions is of failed government measures (the Conservatives cut Stamp Duty on houses in the 1980s... it categorically failed to make any difference).

Time, low interest rates and economic recovery solve recessions.

About 18 months to two years so no recovery before 2010 in my opinion.

And if th US does not recover, it will be for nowt..



Credit Crunch Takes its toll: Volume 7 - rtj70
If anyone had seen the number of people in Manchester at the Christmas markets this evening you would not think there was a credit crunch or a recession at all. It was heaving with many buying beer/punch, food, etc. A lot of money was being spent there today.

But these same people probably have cut back elsewhere already.
Credit Crunch Takes its toll: Volume 7 - ForumNeedsModerating
>>Is it significant? Not compared to retailer discounts.
>>(I bought a washing machine on-line saving 20% versus a shop.. so 2.5% is small beer)

Misses the point madf. Any discount or current saving (or whatever) will still exist, but the overall reduction will leave (from figures I've seen) approx. £13.5bn extra in circulation - in addition to any local/temporary or retailer specific deals. All the notional "20%'s of washing machines" etc., won't come anywhere near that.

It's the fact that £13.5Bn extra will still be in public circulation & available to spend that's important. As a stimulus it's pretty signifigant - equal, very roughly, to 2.5p off income tax.
People saying it won't make them spend more are ignoring the fact they'll have that extra to spend - which will be spent , one way or another.

It's also a lot less 'political' than any other tax reduction which would have to run the gamut of political accusation, intrique & analysis. Just compare & contrast with the political yelping that accompanied the revelation that earners over £150K p.a. might be asked to pay more, proportionately, after 2011 via IT & NI.

Edited by woodbines on 29/11/2008 at 23:48

Credit Crunch Takes its toll: Volume 7 - hxj
It's the fact that £13.5Bn extra will still be in public circulation & available to
spend that's important. As a stimulus it's pretty signifigant - equal very roughly to 2.5p
off income tax.
People saying it won't make them spend more are ignoring the fact they'll have that
extra to spend - which will be spent one way or another.


Well they have two options - to spend it or to save it (saving includes repaying debt), the real danger is that most people save a significant proportion of it, so you have no stimulus and you've really destroyed the economy.

Just compare & contrast with the
political yelping that accompanied the revelation that earners over £150K p.a. might be asked to
pay more proportionately after 2011 via IT & NI.


Actually that is all 'old labour posturing, wealth is bad' - those that will suffer the most are those earning moderate incomes who will pay extra NI, and those doing slightly better as Labour intend to fix the higher rate limit for the entire next parliament
Credit Crunch Takes its toll: Volume 7 - Hamsafar
www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article7526.html

I just read the above, things are looking worse and worse.
Credit Crunch Takes its toll: Volume 7 - madf
Anyone who thinks a 2.5% cut in VAT is all going to be spent is naive in the extreme or disingenuous.

As I posted before, consumer confidence is all. And if consumers are not confident they do not spend, they save.

Personal accounts of the number of shoppers are 100% meaningless. We are talking facts not personal impressions.
And the October retail sales figures showed consumer durable sales were falling hard.

Hence a certain well known retail minor edit group looking shaky.



And if it does work, why do I read - one week AFTER the PBR # that Chancellor Darling said:
Nov. 30 (Bloomberg) -- Chancellor of the Exchequer Alistair Darling said he will ?almost certainly? need to take additional measures to combat the recession as a poll showed the opposition Conservatives widening their lead over the ruling Labour party.
www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601102&sid=aVDph...k


So we have a PBR which is supposed to forecast 5 years and the Chancellor says he needs to take more steps (not in the PBR) cos his first ones Will not work.

"Making it up as we go along"
""Drinking session in a brewery".
spring to mind.

It would appear the Chancellor is rather "challenged" by his job.


# and before any of his moves came into effect so he clearly has zero confidence they WILL work...

Edited by Webmaster on 30/11/2008 at 18:58

Credit Crunch Takes its toll: Volume 7 - ForumNeedsModerating
Anyone who thinks a 2.5% cut in VAT is all going to be spent is naive in the extreme or disingenuous.

The figures are quite plain & straightforward to understand. If approx. £13.5bn extra is in the pockets of people (or in their bank accounts) it is money that will, one or another circulate in the economy. Whether banks or other savings institutions lend some/all/none of the portion they'll undoubtedly receive is ultimately irrelevant - the money will bolster their capital ratios & increase their current, rather miserly, lending profile. Banks must lend some money simply to exist, any extra they receive makes lending more likely.

And the October retail sales figures showed consumer durable sales were falling hard.
Not unexpected - but why does that support any argument that cutting a sales tax won't have any meaningful effect?

A VAT reduction on its own, of course, won't reverse or halt the current recession - so it's hardly surprising the chancellor says other measures will be necessary - it would have been naive to assume that in the first place - but it seems some have.

It's very easy (and rather facile) to say that as the situation is very bad nothing will alleviate or mitigate its effects & that if a measure isn't a 'magic bullet' & an instant cure-all it's totally useless.

We'll find out, in due course, just how close UK plc came to total melt-down with large financial institutions on the brink of collapse. That for now has been averted, although I expect a second smaller aftershock soon-ish; the Barclays' story still has some way to run.

I'm still expecting house prices to be 50% (max) of their 2007 levels before this plateaus, with a year or so of deflation, then very high inflation. I don't see any real way out of this without massive inflation & currency depreciation over a 3-8 year period - the only way really to decrease real debt.

Unless you're able to hedge in some way, I see great wealth reduction all round. Oddly, my tip for hedging might be land or property - but timing will be crucial.
Credit Crunch Takes its toll: Volume 7 - hxj
the money will bolster their capital ratios & increase their current rather miserly lending profile.


Firstly it will have no impact or even a negative impact upon capital ratios, well at least those that count. These have nothing to do with money on deposit but simply the share capital and retained profits.

As to lending that is all down to confidence. The banks will not, and should not lend, if they are not confident that they can make a turn over a period of years.

Given the current economic outlook banks are naturally wary.

As to what will happen to the alleged £1billion a month in VAT I suspect that a large part of it will be used to repay loans and be put on deposit at banks, who will use their receipts to repay money borrowed from HM Treasury to keep them liquid, as those funds are more expensive than deposit rates.

Net fiscal stimulus - zero.
Credit Crunch Takes its toll: Volume 7 - Screwloose
It would appear the Chancellor is rather "challenged" by his job.


You can't say things like that...! That's leaking confidential information on K-GB and the ruling party's failings...

Can you hear doors banging outside and jackbooted CT officers stomping up your path.....

See you in 42 days....
Deflationary Pressure - Baskerville
I did some Christmas shopping this weekend and have been struck by the spectacular discounts on offer. I can't believe that these discounts are even remotely profitable at high pre-Christmas stock levels and therefore conclude that many retailers need cash very badly. If this level of discounting is what is needed to persuade people to spend in the run-up to Christmas, then there is no way the retailers can go back to normal pricing/stock levels after Christmas. This is deflation on a massive and worrying scale.

Just one example. On a day when the temperature barely made it above 0C, my local branch of a well-known outdoor shop was offering 50% off North Face down jackets. They were also offering a three for two deal on already heavily discounted camping gear. Then on top of that if you spent more than £10 (ten pounds, for goodness sake) you were eligible for a further free gift. The free stuff was the kind of thing that would have cost a tenner a few months back.

That kind of discounting at this time of year is apocalyptic.
Deflationary Pressure - Pica
I heard on the radio today that the discounts in the UK are nothing compared to the 95% discounts in the USA.
Deflationary Pressure - b308
Either the shops are desperate for the cash...

Or the goods were overpriced in the first place?



Though I suspect that doesn't apply to a 95% discount!
Deflationary Pressure - adverse camber
A relative is in a moderatly senior marketing role for John Lewis. We asked about an LCD TV and were told that there will be very substantial discounts after xmas.


'Bloodbath'
Deflationary Pressure - Baskerville
Or the goods were overpriced in the first place?


I'm sure there's an element of that and if there is some profit left in it then I'm happy for them and pleased they've been rumbled, but at high stocking levels I don't think that can be the case. Those jackets are not cheap items normally and in previous years you might be lucky to find them on a rack in January at 30% off if you happen to fit XXXL or XS.
Deflationary Pressure - yorkiebar
Did you notice where they were actually made?

Probably a very high profit margin because of where they came from!

Another reason to support Europe (if not GB) made products. Bit late now though ! But no big company (or government) has seen that lower profits could actually have bigger benefits!

The reason for the crunch imo, mostly greed. Pure Greed !
Deflationary Pressure - yorkiebar
Nobody seems to have mentioned how the cut in vat will actually help small business (albeit only temporary).

Its not all pointless.

Though I would prefer real producion jobs in our economy; but Ive been saying that for years and been shouted down so often its untrue!

Mid to long term I think its time to join the Euro! That will bring out some comments I know! :) But prove me wrong, dont just say no!

As for banks not willing to lend! How do they expect to make money if they dont lend? Its ok for them to have run their business's like they have but its not ok for the people that make them their money to do so, even short term to survive!

Low level working man doesnt have/cant afford savings. Any tax benefit of any sort will be spent. That is what is needed !



Edited by yorkiebar on 30/11/2008 at 20:00