From http;//www.metcheck.com :
"Basically, on Monday we have, probably, the most intense storm of this Winter heading into the UK. At present, there is general agreement within all the model of the position and track of the low. The difference is in the intensity, however we'll give you the best fit at the moment.
The storm will wind up to the West of Ireland, bottoming out at around 935mb (incredibly impressive for this time of year). The storm will then push West into Ireland, the Irish Sea and then into the Midlands with gales, severe gales and even storm force winds wrapped around its core. Heavy rain pushing in from the West during Monday morning will also spread quickly across all regions with the damaging winds following on behind later in the day.
In short, Monday is looking pretty damn nasty and if you have any outside plans then please do follow forecasts over the weekend on the latest for this system. "
Stay safe, everyone, and stay clear of the lee side of high-sided vehicles.
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I love a good storm! Mind you, I'll not be driving on motorways or doing tree surgery on Monday so mine's a rather selfish view. As you (or the report) say, 935 millibars is well naughty - on the way to hurricane territory.
I'll be battening down the hatches on Sunday night, since I live on a very exposed bit of coast jutting out into the middle of the Irish sea - I hope it'll be no more than rattly gutters, but my whole house can be felt moving during bad 'uns.
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So long as its gone by Tuesday morning. I've got a 6.20 flight out of Bristol.
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Well, the fence I put up last week - hope it survives...
Last year we had the greenhouse shattered by a gust of wind with 90% of the glass breaking. Time to de-glaze the green house again manually before nature does it? I think so...
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" So long as its gone by Tuesday morning. I've got a 6.20 flight out of Bristol."
The storm may be gone, but your aircraft may be in the wrong place....
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Looking bad too:
www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_warnin...l
The Met Office is expecting an intense low pressure system to move east across the UK during Monday 10 March, bringing severe gales and potentially damaging gusts across some areas. Southerly winds are expected to strengthen during the first part of Monday but then turn westerly later. Gusts of 60 to 70mph are expected but there is a possibility of 80mph gusts over exposed coasts and hills. Much depends on the exact track of the low centre but at this stage, parts of Wales and the southern half of England are considered at greatest risk. Disruption could occur to transport and power supply networks and there may be damage to buildings. This warning will be updated around 1030 on Saturday 8 March 2008.
Issued at: 0930 Fri 7 Mar
Edited by Tron on 07/03/2008 at 14:51
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It's also looking pretty stormy throughout Saturday with multiple front across over the UK. A bigger storm is due to hit Sunday night. Battered everything down as best you can including wheelie bins etc. and stay in doors.
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It's also looking pretty stormy throughout Saturday with multiple front across over the UK. A bigger storm is due to hit Sunday night, and yet another storm is due to hit Tuesday night. Fasten everything down as best you can including wheelie bins etc. and stay in doors is the advice being given.
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www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_warnin...l
Very very frequently the weather does not obey the Met. office.
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Very very frequently the weather does not obey the Met. office.
tell that to Michael Fish!
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That's the point. He said it wouldn't - it did. Many times, they say it will - and it doesn't!
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we get weather here more often than not...:)
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To be fair to Michael Fish. Years ago when England had that appalling storm, apparently he was blamed for predicting wrongly. In truth his boss at the time was to blame and unfortunate Michael Fish took the bait. I heard about that when watching a TV interview a little time ago.
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So long as its gone by Tuesday morning. I've got a 6.20 flight out of Bristol.
From the Met office site an hour ago me thinks that it won't abate till wed' a.m. here in N. Devon.
VBR......MD
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im really sorry everyone i have to take full responsibillity for this storm.
WHY??? because for the first time in about 7 years i am planning a long car journey on monday, unfortunatly karma must have got wind of this (excuse the pun) and is once again out to get me. LOL
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Bad enough to stop me going to work on Monday or not? Surely that's the only question that matters? ;-)
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it certainly looks like a bad spell of wether :)
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And there are a lot of trees on the old road to Winchester.
Safer all round if I stay in bed I think!
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BBC's own weather forecast for Monday (Peterborough) says wind 35 mph. That's strong but it is hardly frightening!
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I've always found the BBC Weather (particularly on their website) to be fairly untrustworthy. However, the predicted pressure chart for Monday does look a bit nasty:
www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/images/uk_pressure_20...f
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BBC's own weather forecast for Monday (Peterborough) says wind 35 mph. That's strong but it is hardly frightening!
That's an average speed. The peak gusts could be double that. Have a look at accuweather.com who give potential maximum speeds.
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Updated here:
www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_warnin...l
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Last Friday night on a newly built house near my parents, the whole top of a gable end was removed by the wind. On one of the sites we are involved with, a 15m long by 3m high wall was blown down. It was found out that gusts up to 65mph were recorded.
So batten down the hatches everyone! I'll be looking out for flying roof slates round our office, last year someones car was hit by one in our car park. There is usually a few lying around after a bad storm; the street is all victorian properties and some are not in tip top condition...
Edited by Rich 9-3 on 09/03/2008 at 10:24
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At 11 a.m. Sunday forecast is for 80 mph gusts around rush hour Monday in the south - easily enough to tip over a lorry. Thankfully most trees are still leafless, PG, so slightly less of a threat on your journey!
Edited by deepwith on 09/03/2008 at 12:14
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We had our mini-hurricanes last weekend and about ten people died I believe in gusts over 200kmh. Best of luck, I'll be watching on the news from my bed.
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Have just been reminded that son's g/f takes her test during predicted storm - don't envy her.
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Watching the current surface pressure charts; it looks like the low has just passed maximum intensity and is weakening already.
The Met Office computors must see something odd about it, because it's still well west of Ireland and doesn't seem to have any opportunity to pick up heat from anywhere out there - very unlike the Oct '87 hurricane that tracked up through a still very warm Biscay and caught them out.
If the forecast pressure charts are correct [and they've been totally revised about 4 times - so far] then they now only show a fairly blustery wet day??
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My old fashioned (but well adjusted barometer) is showing just a smidgen below 995 Mb - not much shift in it.
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Metcheck says a wind speed of 29mph.
The Beeb says 46mph.
Why the difference?
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The Beeb has fitted a hillclimb-ratio back axle and failed to recalibrate its speedometer?
Sorry. :o}
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Metcheck says a wind speed of 29mph. The Beeb says 46mph. Why the difference?
Perhaps timing, or different model.
This is a cracking site for weather - aimed at fliers etc but of general benefit. Worth figuring out and playing with.
www.xcweather.co.uk/
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>>This is a cracking site for weather - aimed at fliers etc
It certainly is, I just checked my part of coastal NW Wales & cross-reffed with the tide tables - Wednesday lunchtime looks like a violent storm 11 with co-inciding high tide. Could well be sea over-topping the defences up here.
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As Mr W says, a cracking site. Check out the speed on the "M3 Buoy" South West of Ireland - "Fierce" or what ?
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Metcheck says a wind speed of 29mph. The Beeb says 46mph. Why the difference?
Gusting 72-76 mph N Devon on Monday. 0300 -1800
VBR.........................MD
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"My old fashioned (but well adjusted barometer) is showing just a smidgen below 995 Mb"
That's almost a gigabyte.
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>Thankfully most trees are still leafless, PG, so slightly less of a threat on your journey!
Ah but is it really worth taking the risk, I ask you? ;-)
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I'm in West Wales; glad I lopped the oak tree nearest my house today!
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Don't know where you're looking, Screwloose for your up-to-date pressure charts. A low of 945 is predicted for tomorrow morning, just off the coast of Ireland. This morning's forecast predicted it to be 950 this evening somewhere in the mid-Atlantic. That's got some deepending to do yet as it comes this way.
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Sorry to double post, but this is great - animated pressure chart far better than the met.
magicseaweed.com/UK-Ireland-MSW-Surf-Charts/1/pres.../
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Mapmaker
I was going by the Met's own charts; it's at around 945 now and they're showing it rising from there - hardly surprisingly, as it's heading across Ireland.
www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/surface_pressure.h...l
The odd thing is that the visible/IR satellite doesn't seem to quite fit the track predicted on the current chart....? Yet another revision on the way? The charts for today published four days ago were very different.
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BBC News at 7.00pm (R4) has localised warnings to South Wales and Southern England....Wednesday looks worse on most weather sites.
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Some imagery to put some perspective on its progress.
news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/in_pictures/7286596.stm
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And the wind is just starting to pick up down here.
Seriously though... is the drive to work an essential journey? If the met office are saying don't make non-essential journeys tomorrow morning, how many of you are seriously not going to go to work? I can just imagine the response I'd get!
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For those who can, work from home for the next couple of days as they look like being the worst wind wise. Midlands & North currently look like being the least affected by the severe winds but it'll still be very windy.
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Looking at the latest satellite; it still appears not to match the projected surface pressure charts. It could be that the "wrong" low of the group has deepened and the affected area will be far further north than forecast.
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Well, in Oxford at the moment we have drizzle and a light breeze.
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"From the Met office site an hour ago me thinks that it won't abate till wed' a.m. here in N. Devon."
MD. Inclined to agree with you. I'm in mid Devon so could be a rough drive to Bristol Aiport at 4am followed by hanging around for the flight so long that I miss my meeting! Can't cancel at this stage as will look a right wally if it turns out that the flight leaves on time!
Weather here at the moment clear and dry, even a little blue sky. Understand the next phase kicks in late morning.
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956mb and gusting to 91mph at the Marathon gas platform off the south coast of Ireland; lots of big (higher mean wind speed) arrows and red (gusting) ones over the South of England at the moment.
www.xcweather.co.uk/
Here in the Vale if Aylesbury the glass is down 30mb overnight but the winds are not too bad, though very gusty. Will be watching for fallen trees on the way to work!
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I am still waiting! East Midlands 1000 hrs. Light rain, 2 layers of slow moving cloud, wind direction South West and looks about 10 kts.
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Horrendous journey to work in Kent, with lots of localised flooding and trees down. However in the last 5 minutes the sun has come out and the wind has completely dropped. Never seen such a contrast!
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Typical BBC and news media.
Storm in NE/NW England Scotland can be Force 9 and it gets 30 seconds mention.
Storm in Southern England /Wales gets 10 minutes and lots of hype.
Apart from the 20 Million people who live in Southern England, who cares?
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Well, here in central London my colleagues have complained about getting in. My own commute (10 minute walk) was much the same as usual; even my bowler hat wouldn't have blown off.
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Screwloose.
Those charts are published at 7.30am daily, and not updated until the following morning.
The same was true yesterday.
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West Coast Main Line restricted to 80mph, putting 30 mins on the Manchester to London journey. It was to let us look at the breeze gently blowing through the trees.
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Mapmaker
Yes; I know. My only point was that the predictions for damaging gales are based on those charts and the reality was fast diverging from the plan.
I think that the Met Office should take a stand against the media pressures and be frank about Atlantic depressions; they are chaotic systems and they can't - and shouldn't - be expected to forecast their movements in accurate, localized, detail many days ahead.
They did a great job in warning of the odds and probabilities and should feel justifiably proud this morning; but a quick glance at the recent posts shows how difficult "personalizing" the forecast is.
[P.S. I wouldn't have wanted to be anywhere near K1 last night...]
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Wet and windy weather in March? Whatever next, snow in December and sunshine in August.
Obviously all this global warming doom and gloom is true.Thankfully the government is taxing us hard to resolve it......
Edited by Dynamic Dave on 10/03/2008 at 12:47
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9.8c 972mb and falling, 'breezy' gusts winds of no more than 20mph and light rain has just started to fall in the last hour.
The sky has seriously darkened up since this morning though.
South Yorkshire - normal weather for us. Honestly, I have seen the usual t-shirt, jeans and trainers brigade whilst on my travels today.
Almost summer weather for us here!
That 972mb reading is dead on accurate too and is not the lowest I have recorded in the last 4 or so months too - that was 964mb in December.
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Pressure just dropped from 972 to 961mb, wind down to virtually zero mph, temp went up by 1.2c and the heavens opened - heaviest rain I have seen for some time.
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Down in darkest West Sussex; I've now got a snowdrift inside the workshop that was blown through the roof vents. There was a fairly meaty thunderstorm and then it hailed.....
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I don't know if low pressure improves the running of petrol engines - intuition suggests it shouldn't - but wet, cool air certainly does as I noticed pootling around the neighbourhood a short while ago.
Has anyone else noticed their petrol car running noticeably more sweetly today, and does the same thing happen with diesels?
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Lud
Even more so with the oil-burners. Cold, damp, air is denser and thus contains more oxygen.
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Yep - my diesel seems to (and all diesels I've owned). I put it down to the greater ease in creating an even fuel/air aerosol with the damper air. I've also noticed ride is slighlty better with damp air - perhaps the slightly greater 'slip' of damp rubber over imperfections etc. (same with wet,rainy conditions obviously). Conversely, hot, dry air conditions always seem to make the car (engine/gears/running gear) just that bit more crotchety & reluctant.
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The 'Storm' has been a complete non-event in the East Midlands until 5pm anyway!
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960mb now that is low. If this was 'real' Tornado territory - you would have real worries then because no doubt we would have a few touching down - and big ones too.
As for running, yep, both vehicles are running a lot 'sweeter' as suggested.
But, it is still raining here, temp is 9.7c we do not have the winds (South Yorkshire near to J38 M1) and I cannot see the pressure falling more than maybe to 958mb?
Have seen and heard the news - looks like we have had it light (so far) up north.
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> 960mb now that is low. If this was 'real' Tornado territory -
A tornado causes localised low pressure. They are not formed as a result of low pressure so you're perfectly safe.
Kevin... (who was within half a mile of an F5 in 1997 and never wants to see one again)
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I had to drive to Durham and back today (from Berks) to give a lecture (on money laundering!). I thought about the train but it meant car/train/tube/train/taxi and was just as likely to suffer from the effects of the weather. In the event there was no problem either way except the M1 being closed this evening at J21 because a lorry had overturned and according to the local radio some bulls were wandering around the carriageway....
Fortunately I was in time to turn off on to the A42. Usual 5 hours each way including 2 short stops each way, and 51 mpg. Can't complain.
As I write now from the comfort of home I'd be just coming in to Reading station if I'd used the train.
Edited by Avant on 10/03/2008 at 23:07
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