The problem is that if manufacturers and lease / PCP financing companies want to stay in business and make a profit (huge depreciation of EVs), they cannot sustain the level of new sales because the second hand market just isn't there - its flooded with EVs few people want, even with that big depreciation.
The s/h market will find a level at which it functions effectively - it's what markets do. IMHO as EVs and charging facilities become commonplace, fears of range anxiety, battery longevity etc etc will diminish.
At some point (and soon), finance companies will start to raise PCP / lease monthly rates to realistic levels to make a profit on disposal of 3yo EVs, and maybe even higher to recoup losses from the last couple of years, plus the next two or so as cars they sold under agreements from 2023 to now come off those deals.
Losses made on the disposal of EVs are history - the market will determine the future economic price for PCP and lease. Companies cannot unilaterally recover earlier losses by increasing prices - they would simply become uncompetitive.
Manufacturers too will not be able to sustain their price cuts, because they are either subsidising them from their own profits and/or from jacking up the price of ICE vehicles. Lower overall sales, losses per vehicle (or minuscule profits) and rising costs are not sustainable over the medium to long term to enable long term investment decisions and pay out decent dividends.
Costs of ICE production will broadly increase with inflation. The costs of EVs - particularly batteries - is declining. Current new price of comparable EV and ICE is similar.
In 2-3 years time prices of ICE may be cut as manufacturers want to generate sales of vehicles which will soon be unsaleable using tooling and designs soon to become obsolete.
Eventually, governments will have to abandon the artificial deadlines and sales targets and just let the whole thing develop naturally as the market dictates. Either that or watch the entire industry and possibly disastrous effects on entire economies occur within a few years at best. The 'Net Zero' stuff (similar) is also lined in to this, making the situation much worse, as recent events in Spain and other parts of continental Europe showed.
Transition to EV and abandonment of ICE is a completely sound strategy. Similarly green energy generation vs fossil fuels. It is reasonable to question the timescales and incentives required to make this happen.
Personally I think they should stick with existing deadlines and targets - a new technology with fundamental major benefits to UK PLC (environmental and energy security) needs support to become established.
There may not be a buyers' market for second hand EVs soon if it naturally corrects via one means or another.
A personal aside - last year I bought an ICE SUV. I rejected EV as I make several trips a year where recharging enroute would be required, including southern Spain. Range anxiety, depreciation, dealer networks, battery life were all concerns - individually not enough to sway the conclusion but taken together lead me to ICE.
Were I making the decision today I would probably go EV - in a years time almost certainly.
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