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Electric cars only by 2030? - barney100

Apparently the selling of new diesel and petrol cars was to be stopped in 2040 now according to the radio it's feasible by 2030. Norway is the inspiration for this as they are well on the way to getting the majority of their population in electric cars. I have no faith in electric cars mainly because of range anxiety, until I can get a decent distance out of one in the middle of winter without recharging forget it.

Electric cars only by 2030? - Bromptonaut

Bear in mind that it's only 14 years since the G-Whiz was the typical electric car. We've now got models that will do 200+ miles and increasing all the time.

I expect if sales on new ICE cars stop in 2030 then development of new models will already be running down. Equally though ICE models still on road in 2030 will probably be allowed to run on for a while but with increasingly tight conditions to control both CO2 and local pollutants like NOx and particulates.

Electric cars only by 2030? - gordonbennet

Pipe dream, not a hope in hell we'll all be buying electric cars only by 2030, where are we going to find the power and how are the majority of people, in towns and cities in particular, going to plug the things in to recharge.

Quite apart from that the government of this country will be entirely different by then, and all bets will be off.

Electric cars only by 2030? - Bromptonaut

Quite apart from that the government of this country will be entirely different by then, and all bets will be off.

A different government can have it's own opinions and policies but not its own facts. They can't make CO2 or local pollutants go away.

Electric cars only by 2030? - Engineer Andy

Quite apart from that the government of this country will be entirely different by then, and all bets will be off.

A different government can have it's own opinions and policies but not its own facts. They can't make CO2 or local pollutants go away.

True, but that doesn't mean the current 'deadline' for changing over to all new EVs only is because by 2030, if we don't, the world will end. There's many other things we can do besides (more slowly, and affordably) change over to electric vehicles, and which would significantly reduce pollution and our dependence on fossil fuels, as well as not bankrupting the country.

Most of the problems concerning local pollutants have arisen precisly because politicians (of all hues) and others in authority disregarded hard science in favour of cheap stunts (e.g. encouraging diesel vehicle ownership through CO2-based VED bands), putting off the much-needed development of replacement nuclear power stations to virtue-signal to the greenies and unwisely use gas (which should be used for heating homes) and woodchips/pellets (not sourced locally, so has a huge carbon footprint) instead because it was a cheap, short term solution. I could name many more.

Of course, not helped by the large increase in the population, mostly in built-up areas. All too often the symptoms of the problem(s) are treated (and poorly), and not the cause.

Electric cars only by 2030? - Engineer Andy

I think they're being very optimistic about having everything in place for a large scale uptake of EVs from a charging infrastructure side (power generation issues notwithstanding), plus there are still significant questions over the viability of the mineral resources for batteries if we go EV too quickly, not just a lack of supply from a wide variety of places, but that it is VERY difficult and energy intensive to recycle the materials within batteries.

I'd say more like another 20-30 years on top of that at the earliest. This topic has though been covered on many previous occasions though on the forum before (not that long ago either - within the last year) we all rehash all the same arguments. Not much has changed in that time.

Electric cars only by 2030? - barney100

How 'green' can we make conventional engines? There seem to have been some good improvements recently so can we make progress to acceptable emissions or is this like turning lead to gold?

Electric cars only by 2030? - Bolt

How 'green' can we make conventional engines? There seem to have been some good improvements recently so can we make progress to acceptable emissions or is this like turning lead to gold?

Ford said years ago they could make emissions free engines, so did Toyota and Honda... question is will people pay the cost for the tech that goes into them?

Electric cars only by 2030? - bathtub tom
I expect if sales on new ICE cars stop in 2030 then development of new models will already be running down. Equally though ICE models still on road in 2030 will probably be allowed to run on for a while but with increasingly tight conditions to control both CO2 and local pollutants like NOx and particulates.

Yeah, remember horse changing stations, perhaps not?

I can't believe I'll see a total change to electric cars in my (limited) lifetime.

Electric cars only by 2030? - RT

Apparently the selling of new diesel and petrol cars was to be stopped in 2040 now according to the radio it's feasible by 2030. Norway is the inspiration for this as they are well on the way to getting the majority of their population in electric cars. I have no faith in electric cars mainly because of range anxiety, until I can get a decent distance out of one in the middle of winter without recharging forget it.

Norway is a special case - mountainous terran and high preciptation lend themselves to hydro-electric schemes, enough to support the low population. They also had vast income from North Sea royalties which they have invested into what is now the world's largest sovereign wealth fund.

No other country in Europe can use Norway as an example

Electric cars only by 2030? - nick62

No other country in Europe can use Norway as an example

Which is a shame, because if what we are told about "being happy with our lot" is true, the Norwegians know how to do things a lot better than the rest of us?

Greed is going to kill off the human race and quicker than expected at the current rate.

Electric cars only by 2030? - dan86

Greed is going to kill off the human race and quicker than expected at the current rate.

It's the greed of a small minority who hord all the wealth and power that will be mankind's undoing.

Electric cars only by 2030? - catsdad
Dan I am not sure who you have in mind but anyone earning the average UK wage of £27000 per annum is in the top 1% of global earners.

Edited by catsdad on 13/05/2019 at 19:32

Electric cars only by 2030? - dan86
Dan I am not sure who you have in mind but anyone earning the average UK wage of £27000 per annum is in the top 1% of global earners.

This may be the case on a global scale but I'm talking about the ultra elite who horde and Control the wealth. It is their greed and control that will ultimately bring an end to life as we know it

Electric cars only by 2030? - focussed

Unless the UK government stops f@rting around with windmills and so-called "renewables" and stops using gas to generate 50% of the UK's electricity whilst blaming domestic gas boilers for emitting CO2 and starts building and commissioning some proper nuclear power stations there won't be much of electrical anything in ten year's time, let alone electric cars.

Electric cars only by 2030? - Ethan Edwards

Range anxiety is one thing. What about situations where you need to go lets say 500 miles. Sure your fancy electric car might go 300 Mile's but what then? Wait six hours to recharge? Turn's a long journey into a weekend trip. That's just not acceptable.

Electric cars only by 2030? - madf

Range anxiety is one thing. What about situations where you need to go lets say 500 miles. Sure your fancy electric car might go 300 Mile's but what then? Wait six hours to recharge? Turn's a long journey into a weekend trip. That's just not acceptable.

Fast chargers are teh answer.

Pity local substations and the Grid will melt when 1 million cars try to recharge before a Bank Holiday in (say) London and the power generation of solar in winter is zero at night and wind does not blow on cold still frosty nights.. and moust UK nuclear power stations are due to be closed within 10 years and replacements are in disarray..

But don't let facts get in way of dreams.

PS and anyone who thinks US coal producers and power staions are going to stop any time soon is living on another planet..(and that is being polite)

Electric cars only by 2030? - Ethan Edwards

Ok fast chargers. But I can splash n dash and fill up in what ten minutes? Lets say the technology improves massively..so an hour which is being very generous. Still very inconvenient. It's not going to catch on until it can recharge in max fifteen minutes imo.

Electric cars only by 2030? - madf

Ok fast chargers. But I can splash n dash and fill up in what ten minutes? Lets say the technology improves massively..so an hour which is being very generous. Still very inconvenient. It's not going to catch on until it can recharge in max fifteen minutes imo.

And teh consequences of 1 hour charging? Charging stations need HUGE - and I mean HUGE- car parking facilities..There is not the land available to build them unless multi storey and then ££££££s

There are so many obvious and basic issues I must wonder whether the advocates of electric vehicles and nothing else have the capacity to think about teh consequences. I suggest not..

Electric cars only by 2030? - Terry W

So many luddites who only see negatives and reasons why not. They are legitimate concerns but also easily solved, at least in part by existing technologies

For those who care to think back 20+ years about home computing - incompatibility of connectors and software from different manufacturers made upgrading a system a bit of a nightmare. We now mix and match bits of kit in the expectation that it will work or a can download a driver/fix from the web.

So a quick change battery module needs to be created as a standard (size, fixings location etc) which is swapped for a fully charged unit robotically, More likely to be a google, amazon, uber type initiative than existing ICE manufacturers who want to defend market share.

On a 10 year timeline driverless pods are likely to be fully functional. Personal car ownership will decline as the public use smartphone apps to call for a pod.

Pods will recharge in central pod stations avoiding the issue of an increasing number of flat dwellers with no external power supplies. Central pod parks will require less space than individual household parking spaces as they will be pedestrian free areas. Power supplies will need to be run into a central main point rather than individual dwellings.

Worries about power availability are legitimate but bear in mind that there will not be 20m electric vehicles hitting the streets overnight. Even if sales of conventional ICE are banned from 2030 it will be 2040 before the transition is (say) 90%+ complete.

Electric cars only by 2030? - Brit_in_Germany

They could start by limiting new cars to, say, 1.0 litre capacity and/or 50 bhp. It would screw the German car industry (and hence the EU) but would have a dramatic effect on pollution levels without restricting the freedoms of the electorate too significantly.

Electric cars only by 2030? - Bolt

So many luddites who only see negatives and reasons why not. They are legitimate concerns but also easily solved, at least in part by existing technologies

For those who care to think back 20+ years about home computing - incompatibility of connectors and software from different manufacturers made upgrading a system a bit of a nightmare. We now mix and match bits of kit in the expectation that it will work or a can download a driver/fix from the web.

So a quick change battery module needs to be created as a standard (size, fixings location etc) which is swapped for a fully charged unit robotically, More likely to be a google, amazon, uber type initiative than existing ICE manufacturers who want to defend market share.

On a 10 year timeline driverless pods are likely to be fully functional. Personal car ownership will decline as the public use smartphone apps to call for a pod.

Pods will recharge in central pod stations avoiding the issue of an increasing number of flat dwellers with no external power supplies. Central pod parks will require less space than individual household parking spaces as they will be pedestrian free areas. Power supplies will need to be run into a central main point rather than individual dwellings.

Worries about power availability are legitimate but bear in mind that there will not be 20m electric vehicles hitting the streets overnight. Even if sales of conventional ICE are banned from 2030 it will be 2040 before the transition is (say) 90%+ complete.

I can imagine a giant 640volt AA battery on wheels with driver breaking their backs lifting into rear battery compartment, and actually doubt there would be any need for it in 10 years, as motors become far more efficient and less power hungry, but as mentioned the amount of people that may buy these cars is probably more than some realise

and if the take up of these motors is as fast as people want, the electric generation will have to be sorted- as pods are not as efficient as most think and still need charging probably more regular than a standard car will, so theirs a long way to go and so far not getting very far with battery tech

though they are learning how a battery charges which could make a big difference in how to charge a battery quickly...

Electric cars only by 2030? - Ethan Edwards

So these batteries will be not Li Fe based but Air Hot Unobtainium based? Yeah thats going to work, no problem. Let's bring them in from 2020...... Look you cannot change the laws of physics. Battery technology will never replace the ice. It's pure fantasy .

Electric cars only by 2030? - focussed

So many luddites who only see negatives and reasons why not. They are legitimate concerns but also easily solved, at least in part by existing technologies.

Luddites! HaHa - But where is the electricity going to come from?

You don't know do you? And the government hasn't got a clue either!

Electric cars only by 2030? - Bolt

So many luddites who only see negatives and reasons why not. They are legitimate concerns but also easily solved, at least in part by existing technologies.

Luddites! HaHa - But where is the electricity going to come from?

You don't know do you? And the government hasn't got a clue either!

I don't think anyone has so far, plenty of suggestions that no one will pay for or is willing to pay for, and I really would hate to put a price on what it will cost. specially as we will have to foot the bill as usual?

Electric cars only by 2030? - corax

So many luddites who only see negatives and reasons why not. They are legitimate concerns but also easily solved, at least in part by existing technologies.

Luddites! HaHa - But where is the electricity going to come from?

You don't know do you? And the government hasn't got a clue either!

I don't think anyone has so far, plenty of suggestions that no one will pay for or is willing to pay for, and I really would hate to put a price on what it will cost. specially as we will have to foot the bill as usual?

That's the penultimate human problem, always wanting huge profits to get things done. Always too expensive. nick62 earlier in this thread mentioned greed.

Tidal power is reliable and clean. The UK has some of the most powerful tides in the world, probably the envy of some countries who would want to utilise it.

You have a massive ball of hydrogen burning for millions of years and putting out inconceivable amounts of energy. You have an enormous heat source a few metres under the earth. New estates could be built with solar panelled roofs linked to the grid. Shared geothermal heating and super insulated homes would stop reliance on gas. There needs to be a combination of sources from different areas.

We've been going for the cheapest options in the form of crude oil and gas but it's becoming clear that it's not sustainable.

Even if global warming was found to be a complete scam and the wildly changing movements of the jet stream were just a natural phenomenon, why would you not want to breathe clean air?

Apparently we produce 1% of the worlds CO2, but we should lead by example.

Won't work, too expensive though blah blah. The sort of thing that inventors and engineers have come up against all the time, lucky they didn't listen otherwise we'd still be living in caves, I don't know any famous accountants....

I could mention over population but I don't want to depress myself :-)

Electric cars only by 2030? - RT

You have a massive ball of hydrogen burning for millions of years and putting out inconceivable amounts of energy. You have an enormous heat source a few metres under the earth. New estates could be built with solar panelled roofs linked to the grid. Shared geothermal heating and super insulated homes would stop reliance on gas. There needs to be a combination of sources from different areas.


The "problem" with solar is storing enough daytime energy for night-time use - the UK has a few pumped-storage schemes but there's nowhere suitable for any more.

Imagine the scene - clear night sky with no wind and temperature down below -10, possibly a lot below - where's the energy reserve?

Electric cars only by 2030? - corax
The "problem" with solar is storing enough daytime energy for night-time use - the UK has a few pumped-storage schemes but there's nowhere suitable for any more.

Imagine the scene - clear night sky with no wind and temperature down below -10, possibly a lot below - where's the energy reserve?

They are experimenting with Grid Storage schemes in California using batteries on a massive scale. I don't know how feasible that will be if taken up unless there are cheaper ways of making batteries that use more common elements. I take your point though.

Electric cars only by 2030? - madf

"So a quick change battery module needs to be created as a standard (size, fixings location etc) which is swapped for a fully charged unit robotically, "

Currently batteries weigh from 200 kg to 400 kg.+

Even assuming modular batteries are used, the design effort required to male a battery swappable without major effort AND keep the car structure still rigid is going to mean some form of space frame construction.. with the battery (ies) slid in from one side.. or the rear.

Not cheap.

Electric cars only by 2030? - Brit_in_Germany

The Tesla S was designed for the battery to be swappable but nobody was interested in the idea.

Electric cars only by 2030? - Vitesse6

It may not be possible to phase new out ICE vehicles by 2030, but without this target it definitely will not happen. We cannot simply keep using carbon based power sources without killing off the planet. Industry needs this deadline to motivate it into action. As others have said technology moves very rapidly in these matters. It is foolish to look at todays rech and extrapolate that into saying "it can't be done"

Remember lead in petrol? there were howls of protest when people wanted to remove it as it was going to be the end of motoring as we knew it. It happened, a major pollutant was removed and no one would want to see it back again.

Open your minds to new ideas.

Electric cars only by 2030? - corax

We cannot simply keep using carbon based power sources without killing off the planet.

Killing the life and ourselves on the planet while we are here. We are tiny in the grand scheme of things, the planet has been through far more hostile environments over time, it will be around long after we're gone. We will probably be one of the least successful species in terms of our existence.

Edited by corax on 14/05/2019 at 14:26

Electric cars only by 2030? - gordonbennet

We cannot simply keep using carbon based power sources without killing off the planet.

Killing the life and ourselves on the planet while we are here. We are tiny in the grand scheme of things, the planet has been through far more hostile environments over time, it will be around long after we're gone. We will probably be one of the least successful species in terms of our existence.

Insects would think we are mere overnight visitors, long after we kill ourselves and what we need from the planet through overpopulation and the chaos that comes with it...the real elephant in the room few politicians who want a job next week will tackle...they will continue for millions of years after our buildings and legacies have been reduced to dust.

Electric cars only by 2030? - Bolt

The Tesla S was designed for the battery to be swappable but nobody was interested in the idea.

Only because supercharging came in, 2 cars can be charged while one car fills up with petrol

Electric cars only by 2030? - colinh

Kia currently quoting 12 months delivery on their new e-Niro, as there is a shortage of batteries:

"Deliveries for the new Kia e-Niro were supposed to commence in April. However, as a result of the e-Niro’s popularity and the production bottleneck, buyers who managed to snag one of the initial 900-model run may have to wait until the end of 2019 before taking delivery. John Hargreaves, Kia’s head of fleet and remarketing, said the battery pack supply chain issue is likely to remain “a restraining factor for at least another 12 to 18 months.”

Edited by colinh on 14/05/2019 at 09:08

Electric cars only by 2030? - John F

Only if private ownership of ICE and hybrid vehicles was prohibited. If anyone wanted to drive more than their EV range of, say, 200 miles (which for most people is hardly ever) they would be either obliged to hire an ICE vehicle from a government approved outlet, or put up with the inconvenience of finding somewhere to recharge their EV.

Electric cars only by 2030? - gordonbennet

Only if private ownership of ICE and hybrid vehicles was prohibited. If anyone wanted to drive more than their EV range of, say, 200 miles (which for most people is hardly ever) they would be either obliged to hire an ICE vehicle from a government approved outlet, or put up with the inconvenience of finding somewhere to recharge their EV.

Please don't give them any more ideas, you can just imagine how many budding apparatchiks would relish wielding their little bit of power there, maybe fly in the adolescent result of a disturbing child brainwashing experiment to pontificate on the subject to starry eyed devotees...anyone see the rapturous adoration in the faces of Milliband/Gove etc during the latest brexit diversionary wheeze.

Many things govt approved should be treated with the utmost suspicion, eg teaching children barely out of nappies about trans and other lunacies, when they should be starting a learning childhood.

Electric cars only by 2030? - Cris_on_the_gas

I think it is quite feasible. Rather than thinking it will be electric cars only, true the future cars will be run on electricity.

A hydrogen cell which would be lightweight, universal fit to any vehicle. This would not be capable of driving the vehicle but able to charge the battery.

These cells would be obtained at stations by the road side that are currently selling Petrol & Diesel. You turn up swap the cells over and give the attendant some money or do the smart payment thing.

Electric cars only by 2030? - Bolt

I think it is quite feasible. Rather than thinking it will be electric cars only, true the future cars will be run on electricity.

A hydrogen cell which would be lightweight, universal fit to any vehicle. This would not be capable of driving the vehicle but able to charge the battery.

These cells would be obtained at stations by the road side that are currently selling Petrol & Diesel. You turn up swap the cells over and give the attendant some money or do the smart payment thing.

They are experimenting with fuel cell vehicles and Hydrogen top up machines in California, I think it costs around $100 a top up so a ways to go to get the price down though range is good

Electric cars only by 2030? - Senexdriver
Was I the only one to read in the recent HJ news update that Sir James Dyson’s proposed electric car is planned to have solid state batteries, thus providing one solution to the problem of battery size and weight? I imagine that progress will be piecemeal but, like the ICE, refinement will happen over a period of time. Batteries this time, charging ideas next time - and you need people like Sir James coming up with the ideas, regardless of where he chooses to base his production facility.
Electric cars only by 2030? - Bolt
Was I the only one to read in the recent HJ news update that Sir James Dyson’s proposed electric car is planned to have solid state batteries, thus providing one solution to the problem of battery size and weight? I imagine that progress will be piecemeal but, like the ICE, refinement will happen over a period of time. Batteries this time, charging ideas next time - and you need people like Sir James coming up with the ideas, regardless of where he chooses to base his production facility.

I read that a while ago on the net, and will be interesting to see what motors he uses, I suspect if they are anything like his hoover motors they should be really efficient

Electric cars only by 2030? - Engineer Andy
Was I the only one to read in the recent HJ news update that Sir James Dyson’s proposed electric car is planned to have solid state batteries, thus providing one solution to the problem of battery size and weight? I imagine that progress will be piecemeal but, like the ICE, refinement will happen over a period of time. Batteries this time, charging ideas next time - and you need people like Sir James coming up with the ideas, regardless of where he chooses to base his production facility.

I read that a while ago on the net, and will be interesting to see what motors he uses, I suspect if they are anything like his hoover motors they should be really efficient

Let's hope his cars are (IMHO) more reliable than his vacuum cleaners. Whatever we may say about the German brands on that score (and Dyson certainly has a case against them for the Dieselgate-esque sidestep on the motor effeciency), they generally do better in the reliability stakes (see Which? magazine and others).

Rarely is the first to design something completely new/revolutionary the best or the most profitable. I think he's rather let the side down by not having any production facility in the UK, after his many utterances on another important topic dominating the news of late.

Electric cars only by 2030? - Bolt

Let's hope his cars are (IMHO) more reliable than his vacuum cleaners. Whatever we may say about the German brands on that score (and Dyson certainly has a case against them for the Dieselgate-esque sidestep on the motor effeciency), they generally do better in the reliability stakes (see Which? magazine and others).

imo Dyson are a good maker, most German electronics I've had just last warranty period so unless I have to, will not buy German, but as said each to there own but it remains to be seen as with any manufacturer

most damaged dysons I have seen, and have repaired some older ones, are miss treated and thrown around and some never emptied to the point they burn out

and I really do not rely on Which or any other so called testers as imo they are all biased in one way or another whatever they say.

Electric cars only by 2030? - daveyjp
All I will say its a good job the thinking of the car manufacturers and energy suppliers is far more advanced than those on here who think we are at 'peak' EV. I.e. the range of cars will max out at 300 miles and it will always take hours to charge them.

10 years is a long time in development terms, 20 years is a lifetime.

There's plenty of info online from the horses mouth (i.e. National Grid) into how they are planning for inevitable takeover of electric vehicles.

The possibility of hydrogen fuelled cars is also on the horizon if the plan to replace the natural gas network with a full hydrogen network across the north of England comes to fruition.
Electric cars only by 2030? - focussed
All I will say its a good job the thinking of the car manufacturers and energy suppliers is far more advanced than those on here who think we are at 'peak' EV. I.e. the range of cars will max out at 300 miles and it will always take hours to charge them. 10 years is a long time in development terms, 20 years is a lifetime. There's plenty of info online from the horses mouth (i.e. National Grid) into how they are planning for inevitable takeover of electric vehicles. The possibility of hydrogen fuelled cars is also on the horizon if the plan to replace the natural gas network with a full hydrogen network across the north of England comes to fruition.

Do you have some links to these "horses mouth" sites?

Electric cars only by 2030? - daveyjp

National Grid. Future Energy Scenarios:

http://fes.nationalgrid.com/insights/

Electric cars only by 2030? - Terry W

A few thoughts to counter the negative waves:

  • At present most hydrogen is extracted from natural gas. Burning hydrogen may be clean but getting it in the first place is carbon intensive. I have read that using electricity to split water into hydrogen and oxygen is hugely inefficient - not entirely sure of the physics and chemistry but if it was workable I am sure it would be the preferred way of hydrogen generation
  • Batteries need not weigh 200-600 kg but could easily comprise a number of modules of (say) 40kg. The number of batteries installed would be a function of weight, range, cost, performance etc etc. Absolutely no different to ICE where number of cylinders, fuel tank size etc is a technical and marketing decision
  • There would be no need for anyone to lift a battery. Simply drive over a battery installation robot and leave the robot to it. No different to driving up to a pump and ensuring the fuel hose will reach the filler.
  • As demand for petrol and diesel declines, existing filling stations would transition to battery change stations
  • Most car journeys are well within the range of a charged vehicle - school run, shopping, social etc and can be topped up back at base.
  • Energy generation - we have 10-20 years to ramp up supply to cover additional vehicle needs at a time when demand should fall for other energy uses. Homes, offices etc better insulated and designed, online shopping obviating individual travel.
  • Nuclear, wind, tidal are all proven green technologies. As a society we need to consider the compromises we are prepared to make to go green - eg: turbines on top of hills or offshore, impacts on natural environment of tidal proposals etc.
  • There are some gremlins that may need sorting - need for large vehicles for towing and other power hungry uses, possible (highly taxed) ICE vehicles for those who are unconvinced by electric although fuel stations will start to become quite spa***.

Electric cars only by 2030? - badbusdriver
  • Batteries need not weigh 200-600 kg but could easily comprise a number of modules of (say) 40kg. The number of batteries installed would be a function of weight, range, cost, performance etc etc. Absolutely no different to ICE where number of cylinders, fuel tank size etc is a technical and marketing decision

This is the case with the Fiat Centoventi concept shown at the Geneva show. The car comes with one (relatively small and light) battery (62 mile range), but up to four others can be added (for a maximum range of 310 miles). The name marks Fiats 120th birthday, but the dashboard featured a certain black and white cuddly looking bear clearly hinting that this could well be the next Panda!.

www.autocar.co.uk/car-news/motor-shows-geneva-moto...1

Edited by badbusdriver on 14/05/2019 at 22:15

Electric cars only by 2030? - John F
All I will say its a good job the thinking of the car manufacturers and energy suppliers is far more advanced than those on here who think we are at 'peak' EV. I.e. the range of cars will max out at 300 miles and it will always take hours to charge them.

10 years is a long time in development terms, 20 years is a lifetime.

We've had over 100yrs since EVs first appeared, and the affordable ones are not much more advanced than a 1950s milk float, although they are lighter since the invention of l-ion batteries 40yrs ago.

Electric cars only by 2030? - Snakey

I generally like the idea of a full EV car, the acceleration and the low running costs would be ideal for my daily 50 commute most of which is on roads with seemingly engineered-in congestion.

But the range and costs to buy are still the blocker, for now. Something with a genuine range of 250 miles that could be charged in a couple of hours is my aim, but I tend to buy second hand and for less than £10k so I'm going to waiting for a while, unless I lease of course

With my experience of dyson's I wouldn't touch his cars, much like the VW phenomenon it seems to be if you tell people they're well made often enough they start to believe it!

Electric cars only by 2030? - Bolt

I generally like the idea of a full EV car, the acceleration and the low running costs would be ideal for my daily 50 commute most of which is on roads with seemingly engineered-in congestion.

But the range and costs to buy are still the blocker, for now. Something with a genuine range of 250 miles that could be charged in a couple of hours is my aim, but I tend to buy second hand and for less than £10k so I'm going to waiting for a while, unless I lease of course

With my experience of dyson's I wouldn't touch his cars, much like the VW phenomenon it seems to be if you tell people they're well made often enough they start to believe it!

I think a lot of people like the idea of owning an EV, and wouldn't be at all surprised if at some point within a few years a motor is produced that is to a lot of peoples liking, regardless of price, if people like the look and its a reasonable advertised range will probably sell well

I have noticed around my area more Tesla`s around, parked in the road with cables laying on ground connected to the car, so people are taking notice and have no real concern about trailing a large cable across the path as they have no drives

but one thing I have noticed over the last 10 years is people are not taking notice of advice regarding reliable cars to buy, they appear to be buying what they want/like regardless of its perceived reliability or even if they were advised not to buy a certain motor, if they like it they will buy it regardless....

Electric cars only by 2030? - Engineer Andy
All I will say its a good job the thinking of the car manufacturers and energy suppliers is far more advanced than those on here who think we are at 'peak' EV. I.e. the range of cars will max out at 300 miles and it will always take hours to charge them. 10 years is a long time in development terms, 20 years is a lifetime. There's plenty of info online from the horses mouth (i.e. National Grid) into how they are planning for inevitable takeover of electric vehicles. The possibility of hydrogen fuelled cars is also on the horizon if the plan to replace the natural gas network with a full hydrogen network across the north of England comes to fruition.

Guess how the VAST majority of hydroegn is currently produced? Using natural gas. Using water (sea water - fresh water is too scarce a reasource to use in most nations) is VEY inefficient - see HJs own article about how little can be produced and the HUGE space it takes up (that's at Toyota's own plant, with loads of solar cells to power it for 6 forklifts).

PS. Do you really think our replacement and new nuclear power stations will be on line by 2030 to be the backup (and to fill the remainder of demand, which is still rising) when its not sunny and the wind ain't blowing? And 10 years isn't that long - my car does 40mpg, the current one does (real world) 45mpg - wooo! What a step change.

The ONLY time the world got its act together to advance technology in big steps was when it absolutely had to - WWI & II and during the height of the Cold War. We're now in the 'decadent West' phase now - the main changes in cars have been in the introduction of lots of electronics, which might be beneficial in many ways, but like having A/C on all cars, won't save the planet.

We need to make things last longer, not have anywhere as many 'throw away' components and have them made of sustainable, repairable materials and sub-components. That's going to take time to wean us of of.

Electric cars only by 2030? - nick62

We need to make things last longer, not have anywhere as many 'throw away' components and have them made of sustainable, repairable materials and sub-components. That's going to take time to wean us of of.

I wholeheartedly agree, but the fund managers and chief execs union might disagree?

Electric cars only by 2030? - daveyjp
I don't think a relatively small hydrogen plant in a single factory is equivalent to a plant which will produce enough hydrogen to serve the whole of the existing natural gas network across the north of England.
Electric cars only by 2030? - Stackman II

I would be somewhat wary of buying an electric car from the likes of Dyson and to a certain extent Tesla, let alone all the other start-ups we recently saw at the Geneva Motor Show.

They may have developed innovative power train solutions but that is a very small part of engineering and manufacturing an entire car.

The established marques have many years of developing their production systems and the design of body and interior fitments and fittings.

We visited the Peugeot factory at Souchaux on our way back from Geneva and watched as the 3008s and Grandland Xs rolled down the line to receive their diverse power plants.

I would much rather buy a car from Audi, BMW, Jaguar, Kia etc. who have all the basics down pat and installed the electrickery as part of the process.

Electric cars only by 2030? - Bolt

I would much rather buy a car from Audi, BMW, Jaguar, Kia etc. who have all the basics down pat and installed the electrickery as part of the process.

I doubt there will be a lot of difference between any of them as they will all be electric and computerised, just suspension, interior, and entertainment differences, not a lot else apart from price as you mentioned the expensive motors ;)

Electric cars only by 2030? - James2018

I would be somewhat wary of buying an electric car from the likes of Dyson and to a certain extent Tesla, let alone all the other start-ups we recently saw at the Geneva Motor Show.

I understand where you are coming from, but I don't think that the current manufactures have showered themselves in glory with their engineering expertise.

Jaguar don't seem to be able to get their DPF regeneration right because they put the unit too far from a heat source.

VG and associated business lied about their pollutant levels and engineered their cars to lie. Their current 1.5l engine is even reported on this site to have major problems.

BMW cant make wheels suitable for UK roads.

Then there have been the policies to leave in dangerous parts because fixing it would be more expensive than the lawsuits!

Perhaps it is time for these dinosaurs to change?

Electric cars only by 2030? - madf

US car makers have minimal engineering xpertise judging by what they produce..

And electric cars will cost £billions as the technology changes..Which it will.. So any car company turning out less than 2 million vehicles/year and having loadsofcash is going to have to join forces with others..

And any buyer buying an electric car for heh next 4-5 years is buying obsolescence as technology will develop rapidly based on experience of mass usage.

I expect Ford/GM and Chrysler to be incapable of keeping up.Ditto Jaguar.And smaller Japanese makers.. (who are already forming alliances or have done so)...

Electric cars only by 2030? - Avant

No doubt Toyota, and probably Kia/Hyundai, will get it rght frst time.

Toyota say they are working on battery EVs, but they're taking their time and doing all the development work themselves rather than expecting customers to do it for them, the hard way.

The Prius is a fine example of this - a comparatively complex piece of machinery which was innovative when it came out but has an exemplary record for reliability.

Electric cars only by 2030? - Bolt

No doubt Toyota, and probably Kia/Hyundai, will get it rght frst time.

Toyota say they are working on battery EVs, but they're taking their time and doing all the development work themselves rather than expecting customers to do it for them, the hard way.

The Prius is a fine example of this - a comparatively complex piece of machinery which was innovative when it came out but has an exemplary record for reliability.

They are also doing a lot of r&d in developing Hydrogen which Toyota and Honda think will replace EVs as they are cleaner, when you think all the emissions from battery production equates to a lifetime of petrol exhaust emissions in one go, as Toyota say the Hydrogen though behind tech wise may become the norm eventually...

and as Toyota have said EVs are not as green as made out to be

Electric cars only by 2030? - Glaikit Wee Scunner {P}

Double post.

Edited by Glaikit Wee Scunner {P} on 17/05/2019 at 11:47

Electric cars only by 2030? - Glaikit Wee Scunner {P}

As I understand it, they will still be electric vehicles. Instead of carrying batteries they will have fuel cells, which convert chemical energy from hydrogen ,methane , synthetic fuel from plants etc.. into electrical energy.

I'm not over confident about the practicalities of this new technology. Fisker went bust when their battery supplier demised. Teslas financial acumen is still on a shoogly peg.

Electric cars only by 2030? - Bolt

As I understand it, they will still be electric vehicles. Instead of carrying batteries they will have fuel cells, which convert chemical energy from hydrogen ,methane , synthetic fuel from plants etc.. into electrical energy.

I'm not over confident about the practicalities of this new technology. Fisker went bust when their battery supplier demised. Teslas financial acumen is still on a shoogly peg.

Their idea is to reduce dependency on batteries as they say to make batteries produces as much emission's making them as a petrol/diesel does in the life of the motor

its also cleaner than EVs as the fuel is hydrogen and water as waste where to charge an EV the electricity comes from mostly fossil fuels.

as of this moment no car apart from hydrogen cars are winning the race for low emissions as they all do one way or the other!

Electric cars only by 2030? - focussed

"It's also cleaner than EVs as the fuel is hydrogen and water as waste where to charge an EV the electricity comes from mostly fossil fuels.

as of this moment no car apart from hydrogen cars are winning the race for low emissions as they all do one way or the other!"

The problem with hydrogen as a vehicle fuel is making it pure enough for a fuel cell to use, and the huge energy cost of compressing it to store in a vehicle tank.

Compressed hydrogen in hydrogen tanks at 350 bar (5,000 psi) and 700 bar (10,000 psi) is used for hydrogen tank systems in vehicles, based on type IV carbon-composite technology.[89]

Hydrogen has a very low volumetric energy density at ambient conditions, equal to about one-third that of methane. Even when the fuel is stored as liquid hydrogen in a cryogenic tank or in a compressed hydrogen storage tank, the volumetric energy density (megajoules per liter) is small relative to that of gasoline.

Electric cars only by 2030? - Bolt

"It's also cleaner than EVs as the fuel is hydrogen and water as waste where to charge an EV the electricity comes from mostly fossil fuels.

as of this moment no car apart from hydrogen cars are winning the race for low emissions as they all do one way or the other!"

The problem with hydrogen as a vehicle fuel is making it pure enough for a fuel cell to use, and the huge energy cost of compressing it to store in a vehicle tank.

Compressed hydrogen in hydrogen tanks at 350 bar (5,000 psi) and 700 bar (10,000 psi) is used for hydrogen tank systems in vehicles, based on type IV carbon-composite technology.[89]

Hydrogen has a very low volumetric energy density at ambient conditions, equal to about one-third that of methane. Even when the fuel is stored as liquid hydrogen in a cryogenic tank or in a compressed hydrogen storage tank, the volumetric energy density (megajoules per liter) is small relative to that of gasoline.

I know what the problems are with all types of fuels, I only quoted what a Toyota and Honda technician said who are doing R&D into Hydrogen fuelled cars and testing said, and it seems they will carry on research as they believe it will replace all battery EVs eventually, Toyota seem pretty convinced Hydrogen is the way forward?

even tesla want to improve by reducing amount of batteries being used and will replace a percentage of batteries with capacitors which can charge and discharge much faster than batteries, needed for charging through braking and the charge being used for acceleration/extra power as and when needed

Electric cars only by 2030? - Bromptonaut

as of this moment no car apart from hydrogen cars are winning the race for low emissions as they all do one way or the other!

There are emissions and there are emissions.

Burning any fossil fuel produces CO2. There are though, when burning fuel to generate electricity, different levels of CO2 per Kw/h generated depending on which fuel and how it's used.

CO2 is, by the kilogram, a global pollutant - wherever it's produced the greenhouse contribution to earth's man made warming is same.

OTOH Nox and particulates from diesels are local pollutants. If dispersed NOx is broken down by sunlight and air movement but there's not enough sun or air movement in inner cities; the stuff accumulates.

Electric cars solve the NOx particultes issue. The CO2 is still dumped into the atmosphere at point of generation until problem of breaking it down or storing it is solved.

Electric cars only by 2030? - Engineer Andy

Quite a few of the smaller car firms, e.g. Mazda, are now partnering with the big boys (in their case, Toyota) to develop full hybrid cars and possibly EVs in the near-ish future. Like many industries, some big names will rise to the top to become the main providers of certain tech components, and the smaller players buy in such parts and add their own twist to sell to their market.

I think that the electric motor tech is now actually quite good - its the battery and charging tech, including the far more important (and costly) charging infrastructure problems that will take longer to overcome than many people think, especially as they require action at governmental/international (co-operation) level. We all know how difficult that is, especially with so many vested interests and convenient alternatives available.

Electric cars only by 2030? - Stackman II

Given that all the major manufacturers are falling over themselves to bring their EVs to the market, what does the future hold for Tesla?

Their USP was that they could supply a credible, practical EV but when their SP isn't so U and customers are going to back to the brands they know, Porsche, Mercedes Jaguar et al their market share will plummet.

They are hardly making money at the moment so where will they be in 3-5 years time?

Electric cars only by 2030? - madf

Given that all the major manufacturers are falling over themselves to bring their EVs to the market, what does the future hold for Tesla?

Their USP was that they could supply a credible, practical EV but when their SP isn't so U and customers are going to back to the brands they know, Porsche, Mercedes Jaguar et al their market share will plummet.

They are hardly making money at the moment so where will they be in 3-5 years time?

They may license their technology to eg Ford.

That I suspect would change Tesla's profitability dramatically IF Ford went 100% EV..

BUT I see no signs that the US will switch within the next 2 decades.

Electric cars only by 2030? - daveyjp
Tesla investors must see a long term benefit, considering how much they are losing every year. It can only be from some sort of partnership or licencing.

Their cars don't make money, they make no money on after sales or servicing as the cars don't need it, they don't make money on software upgrades as they are included.

I've seen in the US sales of written off Teslas are at silly money as Tesla won't sell parts to individuals.
Electric cars only by 2030? - Engineer Andy

HJ's Agony collumn (the one on this website, not his Telegraph one) has a good example ('Leafed standing') of why I think it'll take the wide adoption of EVs a lot longer than currently forecast.

Electric cars only by 2030? - Terry W

A bit of basic research on the internet shows that hydrogen is NOT currently a viable technology for large scale use.

Most hydrogen (90%+) is generated using fossil fuels. There are significant efficiency losses in the conversion of fossil fuels to hydrogen and further losses in compressing the gas to 2-300 PSI. Overall conversion efficiency is in the range of 50-80% - losses of 20-50%.

This should not come as a surprise - converting a fuel to another form requires a process which WILL take energy and equipment. Thus the following create power losses:

  • converting petrol/diesel to power at the wheels creates heat through friction and combustion
  • converting crude oil to usable components - diesel, petrol, heating oil etc needs a refinery
  • converting fossil fuels to electricity uses generators which ceate heat and friction

All this is is a basic physical law!!

Similarly using electrical energy to make hydrogen through electrolysis has inefficiencies. The only application could be to fill in the gaps where energy supply exceeds demand and brings with it the costs of hydrogen storage. Note that it would be better to use surplus energy to ensure all batteries are fully charged first!

As things currently stand hydrogen technology in NOT a substitute for either fossil fuelled or electric vehicles.

Electric cars only by 2030? - Engineer Andy

Exactly. What would be far better to do, and many engineers (like myself) have been advocating for decades now is to go for a similar policy globally to one of the few decent policies than old Red Ken's team in London came up with, even if they didn't really follow it (nor did his fellow mayors following him in that office): Be Lean, be Clean, be Green - make sure we need to use as little energy as possible, what we do need, be as efficient as possible to use it, and use renewable energy where possible.

EVs are very efficient at the point of use, but generating electricty is only about 30% efficient from generation to plug. All we are doing is moving the source of the pollution from cities to the countryside and coastal areas - why should we - its the city-dwellers who are the ones creating it. That does mean having a lot of discussions about related policy areas, which unfortunately are disregarded (often deliberately).

Electric cars only by 2030? - dadbif
Imagine living in a home without a garage or dedicated parking space, how do you charge your car at night??
A row of terraces would be a nightmare
Electric cars only by 2030? - Bolt
Imagine living in a home without a garage or dedicated parking space, how do you charge your car at night?? A row of terraces would be a nightmare

Not really, some people in my area have bought Teslas and plug them in overnight across the path using a cable cover/protector, no one seems to mind and cables are well protected from pedestrians walking over them, and that's in a village high st.

Electric cars only by 2030? - Engineer Andy
Imagine living in a home without a garage or dedicated parking space, how do you charge your car at night?? A row of terraces would be a nightmare

Yep - and one of my main arguments as to why we can't go EV (or it'll only be for the rich) in the timeframe touted by all and sundry in the media.

Same goes for flats as those living in terraced housing, especially if your car is not in a secure area or somehwre you can keep an eye on: I bet the local yoofs wiould have a field day (as well as professional thieves) as regards remote charging facilities in urban areas.

I certainly wouldn't want to leave my car with its charging cable out all night, nor has the estate I live on got the funds or can afford to raise them in 10-15 years to install charging points in every residents allocated parking space and visitor space, never mind administering them. I doubt if councils have that sort cash lying around (or are willing to borrow to do all the work) to do the same for council owned properties - we can't even get them to paint and enforce a set of double yellow lines on the main road nearby.

As yet, no-one has come up with a viable answer to resolve these issues, mainly because it involves huge changes to our housing stock (including knocking whole swathes of homes down and rebuilding to accommodate secure, nearby EV charging) and at a huge cost to...someone.

If people thought that the cost of putting the Grenfell issue was expensive, work out how much it would cost for this: it would make HS2 or updating our nuclear deterrant look cheap, as it would need to be done for tens of millions of people.

Replacing ICE filling stations with 'battery stations' of hydrogen filling stations is just not a realistic (or green) technical one in the next 20 years, let alone 10. I think this will have to be saved up/paid for and gradually installed over a 50 year period. There are far more than just technical issues regarding the cars, batteries and charging tech - the logistics are far more of a problem, one which I doubt many advocating this change this quickly are willing to admit or take responsibility for.

Electric cars only by 2030? - barney100

Just had a few days in Harrogate and three charging points declare half an hours charging only. How far will half an hours charging get you? Apparently they have electric buses there now. I can see the day when only electric cars will be allowed in towns and cities, I'm going to enjoy motoring while I can.

Electric cars only by 2030? - RT

Just had a few days in Harrogate and three charging points declare half an hours charging only. How far will half an hours charging get you? Apparently they have electric buses there now. I can see the day when only electric cars will be allowed in towns and cities, I'm going to enjoy motoring while I can.

Since when has driving in towns and cities been enjoyable?

Electric cars only by 2030? - Bolt

Just had a few days in Harrogate and three charging points declare half an hours charging only. How far will half an hours charging get you? Apparently they have electric buses there now. I can see the day when only electric cars will be allowed in towns and cities, I'm going to enjoy motoring while I can.

Since when has driving in towns and cities been enjoyable?

Some people seem to like cities?, I used to have to work in London and would never do it again, I drove to British museum parked round the corner and ended up months later going by train.

because the train was so crowded I left the job I had, and went back to local work, I`m unlucky if I have to go into central London once a year now to see friends, but I really cannot stand the place, but local area is now getting choked with lorries vans and cars so cannot win

Electric cars only by 2030? - gordonbennet

We all know the enjoyable days of motoring are over, apart from the few remaining thinly populated parts of the country or if you happen to be travelling in the wee small hours in an area not festooned with deliberate traffic baulking systems (traffic lights 24/7, pointless junctions) then the population increases of the last 20 years and still rising have ended motoring for pleasure.

I too used to enjoy London driving as recently as 20 years ago, now if i never laid eyes on the hole again as long as i live that would be great, but one large town i detest among all is Leicester, quite how they managed to fit so many traffic lights, deliberately timed to impede progress, is a mystery, another place i only ever visit when part of my work.

Electric cars only by 2030? - Engineer Andy

We all know the enjoyable days of motoring are over, apart from the few remaining thinly populated parts of the country or if you happen to be travelling in the wee small hours in an area not festooned with deliberate traffic baulking systems (traffic lights 24/7, pointless junctions) then the population increases of the last 20 years and still rising have ended motoring for pleasure.

I too used to enjoy London driving as recently as 20 years ago, now if i never laid eyes on the hole again as long as i live that would be great, but one large town i detest among all is Leicester, quite how they managed to fit so many traffic lights, deliberately timed to impede progress, is a mystery, another place i only ever visit when part of my work.

I remember as a child enjoying the ride over on Sundays to pick up/drive home my grandparents (my Dad ovbiously doing the driving), who lived in North London. Now I'd shudder at having to drive more than to the outskirts of the city, never mind many others. Too much hassle and loads of selfish idiots on the road. I only drive when I have to.

The only time I actually enjoy driving is when I go on holiday to Cornwall - all the schoolkids are at school (i.e. I don't go in the school holidays [I have no kids myself], which is a lot cheaper), bu that means other than during the morning and afternoon rush hours, the roads are relatively clear, especially at tourist spots and on surrounding roads. As long as the weather holds, its actually quite enjoyable for the most part, as long as you know where you're going!

Electric cars only by 2030? - daveyjp

"As yet, no-one has come up with a viable answer to resolve these issues, "

They have.

Tesla have just introduced their latest system - it gives 150 miles of range after just 10 minutes at a charger.

This very much fits in with the National Grid proposal for rapid chargers at existing petrol station sites.

Electric cars only by 2030? - madf

Just returned from driving to and from Leek to see a lady about her hives sorry I meant bees..

14 mile round trip along single track country lanes, with passing spaces. Range Rovers don't dare venture as they might have to go on verges or reverse to last parking spaces- things drivers of such vehicles appear incapable of doing.

Met one car, one horse , several pheasants and a rabbit in the single track section 3 miles long. Smell of hawthorn blossom, sun shining 14c, lots of greenery.. A lovely drive if you appreciate that you cannot do more than 30 mph, the hilly country means fuel economy goes out the window, lots of blind corners due to sunken lanes and high hedges - and LOTS of potholes...A horse and cart would be nicer..

Edited by madf on 20/05/2019 at 13:42

Electric cars only by 2030? - Engineer Andy

"As yet, no-one has come up with a viable answer to resolve these issues, "

They have.

Tesla have just introduced their latest system - it gives 150 miles of range after just 10 minutes at a charger.

This very much fits in with the National Grid proposal for rapid chargers at existing petrol station sites.

a) I doubt if fast charging like that, an often will do the batteries any good - it's been long known that slow charging is far better for the life of batteries, including what charge they still hold as they get older;

b) Even if true (I bet it's not in winter), Tesla chargers only work on Tesla cars. One for the rich and one for poor? Petrol flows just as fast at the filling station for the man in the Audi S4 as it does for the one in the old banger.

c) Who's going to pay for these rapid charges at the existing petrol stations? Are they going to add a sneaky levy onto ICE engine car owners fuels to subsidise EV kit to mainly service the wealthy, rather like they did with QE during the Economic crash?

Besides, National Grid proposals, like a lot of 'government' type things, often are far more costly and take far longer (HS2, nuclear power stations, Crossrail, a new runway/airport in the London area) than every initial estimate.

I have no problem about plans being drawn up or eventually going over to EVs, but I think they currently (pardon the pun) are WAY too optimistic and often shown by parties with significant vested interests in going this route asap, and to virtue-signal to in-vogue lobby groups and the media.

I am very wary of such moves after what has happened with solar panels, wind turbines and the debacles of those big ticket projects I mentioned above, generating lots of nice salaries and dividends for those involved and costing far more and achieving nowhere near as much as originally envisaged, often many years behind schedule. I've personally worked on government projects and know first hand how over optimisitic they can be on all fronts.

I just think we should be careful if bowling ahead too quickly without thinking this ALL through, as there are many related issues that could be addressed first/alongside that are far cheaper/easier and have more tangible benefits to all (especially the less well off). Especially who pays for it all and how/when.

Electric cars only by 2030? - madf

"Especially who pays for it all and how/when."

Quite simply , drivers of EV cars should pay.

In reality, the costs will be added to electricity bills so the general population will pay, car drivers or not..

You are right to be cynical. Many houses are fed by airborne electric cables - we are. They are old, and incapable of carrying much more current. Fast chargers = high current. High current = big load on substations. Most substations and their cabling are old and unlikely to cope.

Massive rewiring project... required.. In every city and town. We currently have no charging stations accessible within a 10 mile radius and get occasional excess voltage # due to faulty earth cables affecting c 5,000 homes...(a 1960s issue ).. We cannot be the only ones..HUGE extra costs unforseen.

# which blows up chargers, connected TVs, security lights and most things left permanently on...(all our PCs and routers use UPS for protection)

Electric cars only by 2030? - Engineer Andy

"Especially who pays for it all and how/when."

Quite simply , drivers of EV cars should pay.

In reality, the costs will be added to electricity bills so the general population will pay, car drivers or not..

You are right to be cynical. Many houses are fed by airborne electric cables - we are. They are old, and incapable of carrying much more current. Fast chargers = high current. High current = big load on substations. Most substations and their cabling are old and unlikely to cope.

Massive rewiring project... required.. In every city and town. We currently have no charging stations accessible within a 10 mile radius and get occasional excess voltage # due to faulty earth cables affecting c 5,000 homes...(a 1960s issue ).. We cannot be the only ones..HUGE extra costs unforseen.

# which blows up chargers, connected TVs, security lights and most things left permanently on...(all our PCs and routers use UPS for protection)

Indeed - we have very few public charging points in my town as well, along with not the most reliable electrical supplies - quite a few cuts over the last 10 years, one, due to a defective substation knocking out a third of all services in town and along the main road through three towns it passes through 15 miles away!

What will make all this situation worse is that due to the 'dash for gas' for electricity production, it's now getting very expensive because North Sea gas is rapidly running out, meaning we're relying on foreign gas, often from not so nice governments to pick up the slack, which means sooner rather than later, many homes and business will need to changeover their heating from gas to electric (even if that's using electric air-source heat pumps [essentially A/C on heating mode only]).

That's going to create a huge additional demand on the grid and generation capacity just a a time when we don't have the gas to create the electricity and may not have all the nuclear power stations up and running to cope (and be full backup), assuming all the green tech is there at all. To many ifs and buts, and much depends on the good and stable relations with gas-producing countries like Russia and those in the Middle East.

Oh yeah, this is gonna be sweet.

Electric cars only by 2030? - gordonbennet

If only we had something under the ground, in abundance, that we could burn to generate electricity.

Electric cars only by 2030? - focussed

If only we had something under the ground, in abundance, that we could burn to generate electricity.

Wash your mouth out GB - the "C" word is not to be spoken of in polite renewable energy company nowadays!

Electric cars only by 2030? - alan1302

If only we had something under the ground, in abundance, that we could burn to generate electricity.

And all the pollution and issues that brings...great idea!

Electric cars only by 2030? - gordonbennet

And all the pollution and issues that brings...great idea!

But burning wood pulp and gas is fine, dear Lord we'll be back in caves if the green loons have their way, dunno what the birds and bats think of the rows of slicing machines.

Natural gas is the perfect domestic fuel, and if left for domestic purposes would have lasted us hundreds of years without having to plunder the bowels of the earth to release trapped pockets.

It won't be global heating...oh yes the new frightener term coined recently...that destroys our planet, it will human overpopulation that does for the place, but curbing that isn't PC and brings no wonga in by the trainload.

Electric cars only by 2030? - barney100

A Swedish professor gave a lecture on population on the TV. He reckons the world will not become overpopulated, indeed certain countries..ie Japan are having a decrease. I really don't know hat to believe but it doesn't seem inevitable that the world will burst with humans.

Electric cars only by 2030? - Engineer Andy

A Swedish professor gave a lecture on population on the TV. He reckons the world will not become overpopulated, indeed certain countries..ie Japan are having a decrease. I really don't know hat to believe but it doesn't seem inevitable that the world will burst with humans.

Developing nations are more than making up for the relatively small drop in Japan, and as we're seeing over here, many people from those nations move to Western countries that do 'suffer' from low birth rates, again, more than making up the difference. I suspect we'll only see a levelling off once the entire world has got rich and healthy enough that people don't need large families any more.

Not for at least 200 years, I think. Assming we don't all kill eachother in some new World War or via some other apocalyptic disaster brought on by our own hands...

Electric cars only by 2030? - RT

A Swedish professor gave a lecture on population on the TV. He reckons the world will not become overpopulated, indeed certain countries..ie Japan are having a decrease. I really don't know hat to believe but it doesn't seem inevitable that the world will burst with humans.

That's only looking at over-population fro a space perspective - the world cannot feed it's existing population never mind continual increase.

Electric cars only by 2030? - alan1302

And all the pollution and issues that brings...great idea!

But burning wood pulp and gas is fine, dear Lord we'll be back in caves if the green loons have their way, dunno what the birds and bats think of the rows of slicing machines.

Natural gas is the perfect domestic fuel, and if left for domestic purposes would have lasted us hundreds of years without having to plunder the bowels of the earth to release trapped pockets.

It won't be global heating...oh yes the new frightener term coined recently...that destroys our planet, it will human overpopulation that does for the place, but curbing that isn't PC and brings no wonga in by the trainload.

No, burning wood pulp and gas is no good either - ok for now short term but we need to move away from it.

Want to move away from using natural gas as well...it's not perfect as it's not renewable and more pollution than you want from it.

Over population and climate change both need to be tackled.

Electric cars only by 2030? - Bolt

Over population and climate change both need to be tackled.

the first can be slowly but not so sure about the second we will have to wait and see...

Electric cars only by 2030? - focussed

Living as we do in rural france, the electricity supply conventions take some getting used to.

Unlike the UK, your electricity supply here is demand limited . You contract and pay for a certain maximum power which now we have a french version of a smart meter is rigidly enforced - with the old style meters you could exceed the maximum for a brief period of 5 to 10 minutes and not get cut off.

The higher the power rating you opt for, the more standing charge you pay.

It starts at 3 kva and the maximum optional domestic supply on the base tariff is limited to 12 kva.

Before the smart meter (called "Linky" in France) was installed, we were on 6 kva, because we were a bit marginal on that rating we increased it to 9 kva.

Exceed the power rating you pay for and the meter cuts you off and you have to go outside in our case and reset the meter - nice on a rainy night in December!

I think that if the UK is serious about their obsession with EV's this is what will have to be introduced to limit maximum demand.

Electric cars only by 2030? - RT
I think that if the UK is serious about their obsession with EV's this is what will have to be introduced to limit maximum demand.

And that wiil be called progress ?

Electric cars only by 2030? - focussed
I think that if the UK is serious about their obsession with EV's this is what will have to be introduced to limit maximum demand.

And that will be called progress ?

Of course it will, progress in the name of reducing the UK's CO2 global footprint from 1.2% to less than 1%. so that the politico's can go to conferences and brag about it.

Reminds me of the old joke about pole vaulting over a mouse t*rd.

Electric cars only by 2030? - focussed

Talking about the differences between electrical power in the UK and France, take a look at a couple of live websites:-

https://gridwatch.templar.co.uk/ the live status of the UK power grid.

And:-

https://www.gridwatch.templar.co.uk/france/ - the same for France.

Now, lots of things are far from perfect in France, but you have to admit that the French seem to have power generation pretty much well sorted out compared to the UK.

We have loads of EV charging points, we've even got two in our nearest small town - only 1200 inhabitants - but I don't see them in use much, if at all.

Edited by focussed on 20/05/2019 at 23:13

Electric cars only by 2030? - Terry W

A little research shows an increase of 10 - 25% in electricity generation may be required.

The range of modelled outcomes depends on a lot of variables:

  • number of EVs compared to current total ICE - likely to decrease with more city dwellers who have local facilities and good public transport links
  • improvements in EV efficiency - kwh per mile
  • how many remaining ICE - lorries, 4WD, hill farmers etc - EV will not be appropriate for all needs

Over a 20 year timeframe the increase in electrical power demanded by EVs is entirely feasible although other assumptions will impact power generation in the future:

  • transition of home heating from gas to electric
  • building regs stringently applied could materially reduce power demands - house design, insulation, orientation, triple glazing, improved heating and ventilation controls. Applied to all new builds and encouraged/subsidised for renovations.
  • online shopping and delivery reducing individual journeys

So power generation does not seem to be the problem. Distribution to charging points and local infrastructures needs a bit of thought but we have 20 years to sort this out. And before saying it is not possible reflect on how an explicit long term plan will drive progress, and look for analogues in IT - cable TV, broadband connectivity all largely complete in half the time.

Electric cars only by 2030? - Bolt

Distribution to charging points and local infrastructures needs a bit of thought but we have 20 years to sort this out.

Knowing how this country works it will start work in 20 years when it will cost 10x the amount to install, though there will be plenty of work for people, assuming they don't use robotics to do the work, and all existing cabling will need replacing anyway ?

Sounds like it will work a treat

Electric cars only by 2030? - Engineer Andy

A little research shows an increase of 10 - 25% in electricity generation may be required.

The range of modelled outcomes depends on a lot of variables:

  • number of EVs compared to current total ICE - likely to decrease with more city dwellers who have local facilities and good public transport links
  • improvements in EV efficiency - kwh per mile
  • how many remaining ICE - lorries, 4WD, hill farmers etc - EV will not be appropriate for all needs

Over a 20 year timeframe the increase in electrical power demanded by EVs is entirely feasible although other assumptions will impact power generation in the future:

  • transition of home heating from gas to electric
  • building regs stringently applied could materially reduce power demands - house design, insulation, orientation, triple glazing, improved heating and ventilation controls. Applied to all new builds and encouraged/subsidised for renovations.
  • online shopping and delivery reducing individual journeys

So power generation does not seem to be the problem. Distribution to charging points and local infrastructures needs a bit of thought but we have 20 years to sort this out. And before saying it is not possible reflect on how an explicit long term plan will drive progress, and look for analogues in IT - cable TV, broadband connectivity all largely complete in half the time.

As I've said before (and on this week's HJ Agony column comments area), the change from homes and business using gas etc for heating to electric, whether direct or via air source heat pumps, is not to be under-estimated. That is a HUGE increase in demand.

Whilst new building are more energy efficient (especially thermally) than existing ones, the rate that the older ones are replaced is tiny - most new builds are ADDITIONAL homes, offices and shops, to accommodate the millions more people that live in the UK than a few decades ago. An industry report I read not that long ago also cast doubt on the real world reductions achieved by these new buildings - often because the on paper building designs aren't really buildable, and so corners are cut during the construction phase.

There is little appitite for spend untold £Bns on upgrading, where possible (some older buildings cannot because they need to breathe), the thermal skin of homes unless it can be done properly (that part of the construction industry has a very poor reputation, often featured on BBC Watchdog, Rip-off Britain, etc) to a high standard.

Broadband services outside of larger towns and cities is patchy at best, and often no better than it was 15 years ago. Besides, the infrastructure/equipment required is significantly less (and less expensive) than individual charging points for each home/parking space, and will be a large financial burden on home owners, many of whom may not be able to afford them and could result in them being seriously disadvantaged compared to more wealthy people.

Never mind all the political uncertainties that come with making huge investment decisions and carrying them out. They almost ALWAYS take much longer and cost far more than planned, because they are poorly thought out, managed and cost vastly more than hoped.

Look at the roll out of smart meters, a task that should've been easy as pie, and they managed to bodge it up on a huge scale, wasting £Bns on tech that isn't standardised (not compatible with rivals systems) and often doesn't work (poor reception - who would've guessed) or fits the space (poor surveying). They also don't tell you what devices are using the power, so you have to guess. Most sensible people could do that anyway by just looking on the product label to show what the wattage was on in the manual.

We need a healthy dose of realism here.

Edited by Engineer Andy on 21/05/2019 at 13:42

Electric cars only by 2030? - focussed

The smart meter rollout over here is primarily to cut the costs of meter reading and postal billing, it doesn't have the remote reading features of the UK smart meters unless you pay extra, which nobody does.

Our contract pre-LInky meter was that we read the meters (one monophase+one triphase) every 2 months, entered the readings on our online account, got a bill in the post, paid it online, job done. EDF read the meter annually to make sure we weren't on the fiddle.

Now the meter sends the consumption figures to EDF who bill us online and we pay online, again every two months. We kept a close eye on the figures for the first few months to make sure EDF weren't on the fiddle with the fancy new meter but proved to be ok.

It's ok power-wise in France until there is a storm, all the power lines are overhead around here, so as France's land area is 25% woodland, trees inevitably bring the lines down.

The last time that happened we had no power, broadband, mobile phones, landline phones, or satellite tv for 3 days - not a lot of fun!

So now we have a 3 kw inverter generator which can run most of the house and the freezers in the barn.

Edited by focussed on 21/05/2019 at 23:05

Electric cars only by 2030? - spartacus1957

My brother in law, an ex-Mercedes technician is now working for a small(ish) independent garage. He tells me they cannot work on electric cars because of safety issues concerning battery packs, earthing and such like. The owner of the garage found out that to purchase the necessary equipment is very very expensive and could not be justified as they could not quantify how many electric cars would be brought in for a service.

So, it seems, owners of electric vehicles will have to use manufacturers dealerships for the foreseeable future - which, at their rates per hour, would put me off buying one for some time to come.

Electric cars only by 2030? - Engineer Andy

My brother in law, an ex-Mercedes technician is now working for a small(ish) independent garage. He tells me they cannot work on electric cars because of safety issues concerning battery packs, earthing and such like. The owner of the garage found out that to purchase the necessary equipment is very very expensive and could not be justified as they could not quantify how many electric cars would be brought in for a service.

So, it seems, owners of electric vehicles will have to use manufacturers dealerships for the foreseeable future - which, at their rates per hour, would put me off buying one for some time to come.

Apparently that can also apply even to non-EV German cars: I remember US mechanic and now full-time Youtuber 'The Humble Mechanic' saying that to be a certified VAG workshop, you needed abou $100k's worth of extra special tools for the VAG cars, because they don't use standardised parts as much as in Japanese cars.

Electric cars only by 2030? - madf

You certainly need special gloves to work on the Toyota very high voltage system.. (and cannot wear metal bracelets/watches.. or one mistake and electrocution.). IIR the special gloves do not cost £1000s..

Electric cars only by 2030? - mss1tw

they don't use standardised parts as much as in Japanese cars.

This must be the superior German engineering everyone tells me about

Edited by mss1tw on 21/06/2019 at 17:08

Electric cars only by 2030? - Engineer Andy

they don't use standardised parts as much as in Japanese cars.

This must be the superior German engineering everyone tells me about

Not really, just parts needing unique shaped tools or with unique heads.

Electric cars only by 2030? - Terry W

90% of an electric vehicle will be precisely the same as its ICE equivalent - steering and suspension components, seat/wiper/central door locking motors, braking systems, aircon, instruments etc. No real surprises except that brakes will need some sort of electric assistance - many steering systems are already electrically assisted.

The only material difference is the power plant. I am lead to believe that motors are far simpler than ICE and produce high torque across the rev range. The former should ultimately mean less failures anyway, and the latter the opportunity to delete clutch and gearbox from the design.

However high current needs clear safe working practices and testing/certification. I suspect we will see the growth of a limited number of specialist power unit service centres to work on either complete vehicles or engine modules. All the current garage would use the diagnostic socket to confirm whether the power plant needs specialist attention.

Electric cars only by 2030? - daveyjp
Plenty of US enthusiasts know Teslas better than Tesla.

They strip them down, replace parts, break them up them and use the drive lines, motors, batteries etc in other vehicles.
Electric cars only by 2030? - Engineer Andy

One of the problems with maintaining modern electrical equipment is that its very nature means that its actually quite hard to diagnose the source of faults, and because many parts are integrated, you have to replace entire modules rather than the faulty component.

I see this with lighting - both for street lighting and on cars, where you have to spend a small fortune to get them in full working order. The electrician who we use to maintain/repair the local street lights (non-adopted road) gets his diagnostic wrong about 20% of the time, but expects us to still pay for the incorrect component he fitted. We've tried others before and they all seem to be the same.

We've also found that often, an older part can cause others to fail when it eventually malfunctions, causing a LOT (financially) of damage - other components fail prematurely as a result. It would be so bad if we a) knew how long each component was designed to last and b) the parts had warranties that reasonably reflected how long they are designed to last - most electrical components outside of TVs are lucky to get more than a 1year warranty, even these days.

At least with mechanical parts, they wear relatively linearly and you know within a reasonably time frame when to change them because they are worn out; electrical parts just fail suddenly, some after just a year, others five times as logn, despite being used in identical ways.

Look at the expense nowadays for cars being maintained, especially to pass the MOT - sensors failing, electronic auto headlamp adjusters failing, LED lights costing several £000 (or more) to replace compare to £15 for a new fialment bulb, Sat nav and ICE going wrong all the time, needing update after update on the software because they don't work properly.

On the surface, EVs look really reliable, but in reality, like a lot of electronics, especially those used in harsh environments (e.g. moving parts, ones exposed to the elements and/or vibration) are nowhere near as reliable as the manufacturers would like us to believe.

And the worst of it is that very often you have no idea of an impending problem until it suddenly fails, as most are sealed units, make very little in the way of noise (to hear a problem developing) and don't give other telltale signs of impending failure, like leaks or gradual loss in performance.

This is why I'm very much against getting a new car with loads of electronic gizmos and toys on it - I'll get the minimum I need or is possible. So much expensive stuff to go wrong.

Electric cars only by 2030? - Bolt

So much expensive stuff to go wrong.

unless you do not buy one you probably wont have a choice as integrated circuits become microchips that have built in diagnostic software, most electrical items now are getting smaller and will not be repairable.

Laptops are a good example, they used to contain a lot of replaceable components, some still are,but using specialist gear, most components are being miniaturised and included in micro processors which will be what happens to cars which is happening now

Electric cars only by 2030? - Engineer Andy

Indeed, and because all the sub-components are so tiny, full integrated (i.e. soldered onto the board) and made from a wide array of different materials, removal of everything that makes up each for recycling, never mind repair, is a complete waste of time, money and effort, especially energy, so they just get crushed, and either incinerated or sent to landfill.

Only the larger and/or very precious (e.g. lithium, gold, platinum, etc) sub-components can ever get removed because its financially worth it. Everything else gets dumped or burned.

Given the increasing problems with plastics entering the environment and food chain, I can only see this getting MUCH worse with the increasing prevalence of electronics in our daily lives, including motoring. EVs may well in the end prove more energy efficient than ICE cars, but at what cost?

Not helped by modern electronics being specifically designed to last only a limited time (similarly for cars) to guarantee a captive market for upgrades and replacements, despite the technology being available to make components that could last decades rather than 5 years or so.

I've personally noticed that in my industry - construction - longer warranties are now available for the more 'mechanical' equipement where they have simple/less electronics; ones with very complex or lots of such components still have a 1 year warranty.

Electric cars only by 2030? - Bolt

Not helped by modern electronics being specifically designed to last only a limited time

I wasn't aware its designed into components only that production processes don't give perfect results for every batch, which means any single component not up to spec is classed as seconds(ie that one component fails a batch) or not have the life of a perfect component

that is how processors are graded and I am told any components made as processors are

which means OEMs do not have full control over machine built component quality, so maybe electronic components are not given long warranties due to no guarantee they will last

Electric cars only by 2030? - Engineer Andy

Not helped by modern electronics being specifically designed to last only a limited time

I wasn't aware its designed into components only that production processes don't give perfect results for every batch, which means any single component not up to spec is classed as seconds(ie that one component fails a batch) or not have the life of a perfect component

that is how processors are graded and I am told any components made as processors are

which means OEMs do not have full control over machine built component quality, so maybe electronic components are not given long warranties due to no guarantee they will last

Car manufacturers, like many equipment manufacturers, have standards that they require of their component manufacturers. Yes, sometimes certain components cannot be made to last a minimum X number of years, whereas others can and do last far longer, but they certainly DO know the MTBF rate of the components bought.

If components were so great, why are KIA the only major manufacturer to offer a 7 year warranty? Why not 10 or more across the board, especially for their EVs? Why does Telsa only offer a 4yr warranty?

Electric cars only by 2030? - Bolt

Not helped by modern electronics being specifically designed to last only a limited time

I wasn't aware its designed into components only that production processes don't give perfect results for every batch, which means any single component not up to spec is classed as seconds(ie that one component fails a batch) or not have the life of a perfect component

that is how processors are graded and I am told any components made as processors are

which means OEMs do not have full control over machine built component quality, so maybe electronic components are not given long warranties due to no guarantee they will last

Car manufacturers, like many equipment manufacturers, have standards that they require of their component manufacturers. Yes, sometimes certain components cannot be made to last a minimum X number of years, whereas others can and do last far longer, but they certainly DO know the MTBF rate of the components bought.

If components were so great, why are KIA the only major manufacturer to offer a 7 year warranty? Why not 10 or more across the board, especially for their EVs? Why does Telsa only offer a 4yr warranty?

If you know that for fact, I stand corrected, but my knowledge of electronics tells me different, Nothing in electronics is certain, but certain companies use warranty not because they are positive about its life but as a sales ploy, ie some people or a lot will buy because of warranty, and as some cars have failures says it all really

Electric cars only by 2030? - madf

Electronic components may often be standardised BUT

wiring layouts,and connectors vary..

The reason why French cars had dodgy electrics was their use of cheap connectors which tended to fail due to corrosion/lack of waterproofing, stress due to too short wiring (!)

See Citroen Mark1 XM which in Mark2 form had much more reliable wiring..

Japanese cars tend to use electrical grease on connectors.. (Jazz certainly does).. Makes a difference - in the long term...These are little things - but that is electronics.. (See also Jaguar on how not to do it)

 

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