On reflection, I think if I were you I'd keep the BMW till the warranty expires and then look around. The 2-series Active Tourer hasn't, I'm told, been selling well, and so may lose its value quickly so that there could be a good deal to be had on a newish one next year. This has a higher driving position than your 3-series.
I'm a bit surprised that a RAV-4 would be that much more expensive to run: what happened to the free servicing deal that you mentioned in your original post?
Well so was I but both tax and servicing are more expensive and if you check out the 'Real MPG' numbers then I can probably expect a realistic 35 - 38mpg as opposed to 49 ish out of the 3. That's quite a difference over a year.
The RAV 4 was actually coming up as similar or slightly more expensive to insure also so, only from my crude figures, I reckoned on balance it's an increase of around £800/year to run.
Both of the ones I looked at were offering 'free' servicing when there was a small payment involved in my changing. Once I squeezed them to a straight swap that disappeared and, sadly for them probably meant that the deal became far less attractive because of the costs.
The 308 looks nice though clearly not an SUV as originally intended but you know how it os when you first start looking - that would be a good way to reduce running costs but there are the questions in my mind about reliability and depreciation being much higher.
I 'think' my decision is also to stick with the 3 series for now and change it just before it's 3 years old. That gives me more time to look, consider, save and not make a rash decision I may regret.
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