Reading the motor industry report into future trends in the second-hand motor retail trade (News item) it occurred to me that, in their future estimation of supply and demand, the authors had overlooked what promises to be one of the most significant shifts in vehicle availability to happen in decades.
Namely, the reassessment of people currently benefiting from the Motability scheme.
A rigorous regime of eligibility testing for all DLA recipients is scheduled to begin in January 2013.
There is little doubt that the criteria for eligibility has been so drastically overhauled that a very large percentage of those reassessed will lose the mobility component of their benefit - and, with it, their Motability vehicle.
For example, under current legislation, losing both legs would qualify someone for the mobility component of DLA. Under the new rules, such an applicant would be refused mobility allowance if he/she was able to propel themselves in a wheelchair.
That's obviously an extreme example - but it sets the tome of the reviews, and bodes ill for all those currently receiving the mobility component of DLA.
When the benefit is removed, Motability vehicles will have to be returned - and it's easy to foresee a scenario where tens of thousands of relatively new -ex-hire cars will be suddenly dumped back into the market..
Currently, the Motability fleet comprises well over half a million vehicles - if only 25% of those claiming DLA were to be refused the mobility component (and the actual percentage could well be 50% - 60%, so tightly has the new eligibility criteria been drafted) then over 125,000 (and, very possibly, 250,000 - 300,000) cars aged between 1 and 3 years are going to slosh through the auction rings in a relatively short time frame.
I'm a bit surprised that this hasn't been factored in to the 'Long View' report.
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