Oil wars. - Old Navy
Wars are usually about resources and our economy runs on oil. I had always believed that the main reason we wanted to keep the Falklands was oil, the islands sit on a big shallow plateau similar to the North Sea. If there is oil there, as the price of oil increases it will become viable to extract it. I read somewhere that the M4 corridor is to become a "Green route" of some sort with alternative power supplies provided, so the government must see the writing on the wall, we will not be able to afford oil when it becomes scarce.

www.dailyexpress.co.uk/posts/view/157882/Argentina...m
-sailing-to-Falklands
Oil wars. - maz64
I read somewhere that the M4 corridor is to become a "Green route" of some sort


news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/wales/8511319.stm

Edited by Focus {P} on 13/02/2010 at 09:52

Oil wars. - OG
More greenwash.

Most hydrogen currently in use is extracted from natural gas, electrolysis is expensive and requires large quantities of electricity; the majority of which is generated by burning fossil fuels.
Oil wars. - tiredeyes
But the .Gov want to build more nuclear power stations to supply electricity, I do think electricity is the way forward. I have now seen new electric radiators -dry system, and they save 60% on power/cost rather than gas fed boilers - wet systems.
in the 22 years I have been driving, I cannot believe the amount of cars now on the road, I dread to think of how many cars there are in Japan/US, pumping out those un-burnt particles.
Oil wars. - maz64
I have now seen new electric radiators -dry system
and they save 60% on power/cost rather than gas fed boilers - wet systems.


Have you a link to some info on these? I would be interested to know how an electric radiator can be made more efficient - there aren't any 'losses' AFAIK apart from the heat of course which they are designed to give out.
Oil wars. - tiredeyes
it was in a trade magazine (from CEF) professional electrician and installer. an interview with guy from Rointe. have done a search on goog, but its not on the web, go to your local CEF and inquire about some items, then ask to pick up the mag. www.rointe.com are manufacturers.
Oil wars. - maz64
www.rointe.com are manufacturers.


www.rointe.com/en/pro_elsistema.htm ?

Still not sure how they can save 60% compared to gas - it would be great if they could though.

Edited by Focus {P} on 13/02/2010 at 11:58

Oil wars. - tiredeyes
Yes thats it.
it would make buying a new house to live in for the next 40 years well worth it.
which is what I want to do in 3 -4 years.
if they do do as they say in magazine (no words on website to say 60%)
In my house, temp can never get up to 19 degs in winter, stays on 18.
but I am guessing that the cost of them is around £2K to fit a 3 bed semi out, you would need to stay in it for 10 years to recuperate the initial cost
or is 10 years too long?
I guess 5, and you could describe the electric bill to the new buyers.
But how to get hot water for bath and shower? you would still need gas boiler to heat water.
Hmmm ?

Number 1 sons golf taking 20 minutes to get to 90 degs. !

Oil wars. - touchbase
Rointe is a Spanish company, my Mum who lives in Alicante has their products in her apartment and it is very good and also cheap to run. Mind you it doesn't get as cold or as damp there. They sell water heaters for tap/shower/bath hot water which she has, but you can also use a stand alone shower system if you want. The Spanish website has all the details, but it is in Spanish, duh. I would say her 2 bed apartment, reasonably spacious costs her 500 -600 euros pa.
Oil wars. - R2-CMax
Rointe is a Spanish company my Mum who lives in Alicante has their products in
her apartment and it is very good and also cheap to run. Mind you it
doesn't get as cold or as damp there. They sell water heaters for tap/shower/bath hot
water which she has but you can also use a stand alone shower system if
you want. The Spanish website has all the details but it is in Spanish duh.
I would say her 2 bed apartment reasonably spacious costs her 500 -600 euros pa.


This kind of system really isn't the future for the UK. A direct electric system (which I believe this is) converts 100% of the electricity to heat at the point of use, whereas gas boilers are not as good as that (90% is claimed for an A-rated boiler but real-world is somewhat lower). But before you rush out and buy one, have a look at your bills and check the relative prices of gas & electricity in kWh. Electricity is about 3x the price of gas (not surprising as it's gas-fired power stations that set the wholesale price of electricity).

It's a false comparison comparing Alicante with the UK - the heat requirement for space heating is a much lower than in the UK. Hence the absolute first step back in Blighty is to get the loft lagged with 8" of insulation and get your wall cavities filled if you have them. Your energy supplier is legally obliged to deliver carbon savings, and so most/all are subsidising the costs of these

www.decc.gov.uk/en/content/cms/what_we_do/consumer...x

The best you can do today (if you have gas) is a good quality A-rated gas boiler with a good set of heating controls. Longer term (ie beyond 2020), the future is likely to be heat pumps, but this technology is not cost-competitive with gas yet.
Oil wars. - SteelSpark
I do think electricity is the way forward.


I agree with this. I think that the other approaches to greener vehicles are flawed.

Basically, the car companies are trying to be car companies AND energy production companies.

We have a common form of energy exchange/consumption in electricity, and the car manufacturers should just work around using that as the fuel and leave the energy companies to put their expertise into finding greener ways to produce the electricity.

I mentioned Tesla the other day, something like their platform seems the way forward. A car that you can plug into any socket, leaving the energy companies to figure out whether they should burn bio-fuel, or gas, or have nuclear power plants.

There are obvious reasons that cars used to have to create their own energy, because of the big leap to get batteries to a workable power, but now that we are on the cusp of that, it makes no more sense for Ford to figure out how to use bio-fuel in their cars, than it does for IBM to figure out how to use it in their laptops, or Nokia to try to figure out how to power their phones with diesel.

Edited by SteelSpark on 13/02/2010 at 14:54

Oil wars. - oilrag
I wonder If there wIll be rIots as the oIl age draws to close? I can't see mIllIons of batterIes beIng sustaInable eIther.
I belIeve there wIll have to be major changes In expectatIons of personal transport.
We perhaps assume thIngs wIll always get better In future decades - but hIstory shows It's a short term IllusIon, on a longer tImescale.

(posted from phone)

Edited by oilrag on 13/02/2010 at 18:28

Oil wars. - craig-pd130

Nah, when we're truly running out of black gold, the oil conglomerates will just unveil the cold-fusion technology they've been suppressing for the last 30 years, and Ford will launch its perpetual-motion engine that was developed in the 60s.

;-D

But seriously, Mad Max 1 & 2 look increasingly prescient ...
Oil wars. - diddy1234
Maybe MDI would eventually get a chance with their air powered car when oil runs out.

Hydrogen fuel cell cars is not the solution as all it does is change oil (in fuel terms) for hydrogen.
Oil wars. - SteelSpark
I can't see mIllIons of batterIes beIng sustaInable eIther.


Don't see why not, they wear out and need to be replaced (re-manufactured), but nothing is really used up (unlike burning petrol), you just need more energy for the re-manufacturing process. If there are not enough raw materials you have a problem, but I don't know if that would be a stumbling block in the foreseeable future.
I belIeve there wIll have to be major changes In expectatIons of personal transport.


Maybe, but my guess is that technology will stay ahead of the game. Electric cars are already here, and the means to produce power from renewables is being quickly ramped up.

The thing is there are plenty of countries were not having transport is a no go, we could get away with it here, but in the US, Canada, Russia, China? Not without a wholesale reworking of society I think.

I don't think that transport will affected by the oil drying up, maybe more of a problem is the fact that so many things are made of petroleum based compounds, but new materials will have to reduce those I guess.

Edited by SteelSpark on 13/02/2010 at 21:01

Oil wars. - AndyTheGreat
Get ready for the oil crunch:

www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financetopics/oilprice...l

To be honest, I dont see what the fuss is all about. Demand destruction will save the day.

Also so what if petrol and diesel hits £2 a litre? I can afford it as can most others. If it prices a few people of the road then fine, it eases congestion and makes my drive into work that little bit more pleasant. In fact, those who cant afford £2 a litre are probably the same 1 in 20 driving around without insurance. They can skimp on insurance but without any go-go juice they wont be on the roads.
Oil wars. - oilrag
" In fact, those who cant afford £2 a litre are probably the same 1 in 20 driving around without insurance."

That`s a slur on the millions of honest poor.

But will the priced out masses allow the rich to use the roads? I`ve a feeling that they won`t be doffing their caps to the financially privileged as in days of yore.

Edited by oilrag on 13/02/2010 at 21:55

Oil wars. - primeradriver
The one in 20 driving around without insurance are more likely to be composed of middle-class 17 year olds who are unprepared to pay the high premiums.

Add those to the hundreds of thousands more of them fronting.

No government will allow prices to go up that high in the near future if they want to keep their position.
Oil wars. - CraigP
There's nothing to say you can't change your engine, already there are folks who replace big v8's with electric motor & batteries, with peer help forums already springing up.

That being said, i'm pretty sure i've bought my last new fossil fuel car today.
Oil wars. - CGNorwich
"No government will allow prices to go up that high in the near future if they want to keep their position"

And exactly how would they stop it? The only influence the UK Government has on the price of fuel at the pumps is the tax. Sure they could lower fuel tax but they would then have to raise taxes elsewhere. I suspect we will see the £1.40 litre by the end of the year and £2 per litre within 5 years
Oil wars. - primeradriver
Taxation will come down -- it's inevitable -- if oil prices increase as markedly as you're suggesting.

People don't like paying taxes. Governments answer this problem by hiding taxes away in places they think people won't notice. The taxation of fuel has been blown wide open.

If the prices increase significantly within the next couple of years, the chances are that this will happen under a government with a weak position -- current polling suggests either a hung parliament or a wafer-thin Conservative majority. Such a government simply wouldn't be resilient enough to withstand a repeat of the blockades of a few years ago -- even the Labour government with a huge majority creaked under the pressure.

They will be forced to find another way of recovering this tax.

Longer term there's going to be a problem as you say, but it is a long term scenario, certainly not this year.

There's still room for me to downsize -- I don't like the thought of an A-segment diesel but if that's what it takes, then it'll have to be so -- so I am not too bothered yet.
Oil wars. - gordonbennet
wouldn't be resilient
enough to withstand a repeat of the blockades of a few years ago


We'll never see the likes of that again, those in power and those who own will not allow it.

I expect prices to rise at a steady rate from now on, those of us that work have to get there and public transport isn't a practical option for most so we'll have to pay up and lump it, VAT going up to 20% after the next election will be a nice little earner for a start.
Oil wars. - CGNorwich
"Taxation will come down -- it's inevitable -- if oil prices increase as markedly as you're suggesting."

Well I like your optimism. Taxes in general are only going one way and that's up. VAT and Fuel duty are easy taxes to raise and are reasonably equitable in their application. I would be very much surprised if VAT doesn't rise to 20% in the first budget of the new government combined with a fairly substantial hike in fuel duty. That together with a projected oil price of around $90 - $95 per barrel will easily push the price at the pump up to £1.40

Remember we were nearly paying that in 2008

I wouldn't bank on a hung parliament either.
Oil wars. - AndyTheGreat

CGNorwich is correct, no chance of taxes coming down - never ever in a million years, no matter who's in charge, never, never, never!

The minute the 'global' economy picks up we will soon see oil at $200 a barrel and £2 at the pump - easily. The government (who ever that may be at the time) will not complain as the money will be rolling in and they can of course blame oil speculators for the price rise. Always good to have some sort of depised figure to blame bad news on.

I've seen it mentioned on here before that driving a car is a privilegde not a right.

I accept that I cant afford to buy and run a veyron. Maybe some will just have to accept that they cant afford a car and will have to get used to the bus/cycle/walk - or spend less money on fags, booze and takeaways to be able to run a car.

From my prespective, its not all bad. Less cars on the road and a fitter healthier population - me included as if I'm paying an extra £250 a month on fuel I might even cycle or walk the odd journey and might even start to eat more healthy (read cheaper) myself.
Oil wars. - Sparrow
Electric heating might be cheaper to install - which is good for housing developers who are always on the look out for a cheaper installation. But I cannot see how running costs will be lower. The reason is a simple one of physics. When fuel is burnt to generate electricity the process is grossly inefficient. Vast quantities of heat get wasted in cooling towers and the like. Using the resulting electricity to heat your house, instead of using the original fuel is about the least green thing you can do.
One or two of you may argue that if the electricy is nuclear generated then it can still be green to heat with it. The problem with this is that the proportion of nuclear electricity is about to fall in the UK - the new nuclear stations being planned now will only just about replace the power generated today by the elderly nuclear stations we have, that's assuming they come on stream on their due dates.

To bring this back to motoring, as most of the electricity here will be fossil fuel generated for some time to come, the C02 won't fall if you use an electric car. The C02 will just move from car to power station.

I reckon that as the price of oil rises new sources will come on strea. It will be economic to get oil from coal, from oil shales. Going electric is only helpful for inner city traffic, and I support it for that reason only, but not for trundling up and down the M4.
Oil wars. - SteelSpark
Good points Sparrow.
When fuel is burnt to generate electricity the process is grossly inefficient. Vast quantities of heat get
wasted in cooling towers and the like. Using the resulting electricity to heat your house
instead of using the original fuel is about the least green thing you can do.


I think this is true, for example a gas fired power station is about 50%, an old house hold boiler is about 50%, but new ones are about 80-90% efficient.

The problem is that, if we are going to get away from fossil fuels, or if they are going to run out, a shift needs to be made.

Unless we find another fossil fuel to burn locally (in the house) it is going to have to come from an outside source of electricity, if not now, then soon.
One or two of you may argue that if the electricy is nuclear generated then
it can still be green to heat with it. The problem with this is that
the proportion of nuclear electricity is about to fall in the UK - the new
nuclear stations being planned now will only just about replace the power generated today by
the elderly nuclear stations we have that's assuming they come on stream on their due
dates.


Yes, there no doubt needs to be an investment, maybe more renewables than nuclear power. There just needs to be the will (and the money).
To bring this back to motoring as most of the electricity here will be fossil
fuel generated for some time to come the C02 won't fall if you use an
electric car. The C02 will just move from car to power station.


The efficiency case is far from clear cut with cars, because petrol engines only have a thermal efficiency of 20-30% (40% for diesel), whereas an oil fired powerstation is about 33%.

Yes, you are moving the CO2 from the car to the powerstation, but it is the same issue as with the home, you eventually need to move to a situation where you are not burning fuel locally (if for no other reason, than we are running out of that fuel).
Going electric is
only helpful for inner city traffic and I support it for that reason only but
not for trundling up and down the M4.


Coming back to Tesla, they seem to have a platform that can provide performance and range. It was smart of them to start with Roadster (0-60 in 3.7 seconds) to show that you can get performance from an electric car.

What performance and range they can get out of their Model S (if it is ever built) remains to be seen, but if it compares to petrol/diesel and they can get the range up from 300 to 500 (along with recharging from any socket), it seems reasonable to me, at least for the majority of car users.

The way I see it, is that the approach of burning fuel locally is what is coming to an end, and we need to get ready for an age where somebody else produces the energy and we just plug into it. Maybe we do it in stages that make the most sense, but it is only going to end up one way.
Oil wars. - corax
Electric heating might be cheaper to install - which is good for housing developers who are always on the look out for a cheaper installation. But I cannot see how running costs will be lower


Therein lies the problem - housing developers always looking for the cheapest option. New houses are being built to a price instead of a specification. We have a huge store of heat energy underneath our feet - geothermal. Yet we are still installing gas central heating into the millions of new homes, so that the gas companies can make even more money and we can continue pumping CO2 into the air.
If people weren't like they were (greedy), we could have built geothermal heating systems serving a large number of houses at the same time. Yes, it would be more expensive initially, but over time there would be no pressure on the gas reserves to heat those houses. But maybe thats too sensible.

Oil wars. - Mick Snutz
Just a thought but perhaps when the oil runs out it will cause a population drop. This in turn could bring a return to smaller more local communities which rely on local people providing trades similar to the way we lived 200 years ago. A local butcher, baker, and other trades would be become readily available and people wouldn't have to travel so far to get the locally produced food they needed or a local tradesman to fix something.
It may bring a return to a simpler way of life and end the individualistic, self centred, selfish outlook a lot of society has suffered from over the years. It may even lead to a cashless society who rely on working and being able to trade on the skills they possess in order to get what they want rather than the capitalist way of life we all have at present.
Oil wars. - SteelSpark
Blimey Mick, do you want to bring back the Black Death too? Maybe that will be how you manage to achieve the population drop :)

I do think that decentralisation of urban locations, is a good idea. No need for us to all try to commute into the same 4 square miles. I don't think that going back to the old days will make us less individualistic though, survival of the fittest and all that. Without the safety blanket of mass production of food etc, our survival instincts might come to the fore again.

Have you seen the murder rates from 200 years ago?!

If we do have to go back to that, I'll pass on the Butchering and Baking...and have a crack at the candlestick making...

Edited by Webmaster on 16/02/2010 at 01:36

Oil wars. - primeradriver
Would be good though if we could get the global population down to a billion or so though... would sort out a lot of the world's problems at a stroke. Those who were here could drive around in 4l V8s for another hundred years and still the CO2 levels would be manageable.

Of course, that ain't going to happen in any pleasant way so there's no point in thinking about it.
Oil wars. - AndyTheGreat
Would be good though if we could get the global population down to a billion
or so though... would sort out a lot of the world's problems at a stroke.
Those who were here could drive around in 4l V8s for another hundred years and
still the CO2 levels would be manageable.


Practically speaking, thats the best solution. Morally, though....

But we will at some point need to control the growth of the population, or nature will reduce it for us in some horrible way.

I think cheaper house prices would help a lot. If it wasn't so expensive to move house many people would buy a house closer to work - think how much better the roads would be. As it is currently many people are finding it very hard to move, hence the mini boom in loft conversions and extensions.

Edited by Dynamic Dave on 16/02/2010 at 00:45

Oil wars. - R2-CMax
It
may even lead to a cashless society who rely on working and being able to
trade on the skills they possess in order to get what they want rather than
the capitalist way of life we all have at present.


But the whole point of money is to provide the means to compare the value of different goods or services. And also so you don't always have to carry whatever it is that you might have to trade with you.

e.g. how else do we equate the value of your pigs to my chickens? And what happens if you don't want to carry your pigs around every time you think you might need something else?
Oil wars. - R2-CMax
Taxation will come down -- it's inevitable -- if oil prices increase as markedly as
you're suggesting.
People don't like paying taxes. Governments answer this problem by hiding taxes away in places
they think people won't notice. The taxation of fuel has been blown wide open.


Sorry I disagree... the country is basically bankrupt - there's no scope for the absolute £/l of taxation of fuel to come down. As it is we are looking at cuts in spending and rises in overall taxation - rumours about 20% VAT in the press.
Oil wars. - AndyTheGreat
How much extra will 20% VAT push up the price of a a litre? VAT is charged on cost plus duty isnt it?