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Good time to buy that gas guzzling 4x4 and 2 fingers to the losers then!
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Given the recent/ongoing floods I can see a swift reversal in this trend on the cards.
Our Honda CRV got through the Purley floods that left many a family saloon or hatch stranded and I don't think we will ever be without a 4X4 whatever the eco-terrorists throw at us.
We do need to change the CRV after 5 faultless years, but the new CRV is as ugly as the Civic and untouchable.
Quite fancy a Mitsi Outlander but will wait for the VW tractor engine to be replaced by a 2.2 lump.
As family cars 4X4s are unbeatable IMVHO.
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Given the recent/ongoing floods I can see a swift reversal in this trend on the cards. Our Honda CRV got through the Purley floods that left many a family saloon or hatch stranded
I'd be a bit careful there. A 'soft-roader' like a CRV only gives you about a 30cm advantage over a lot of typical saloons. Get overconfident, or generate a bit of a bow wave, and you'll have a smashed-up engine. Don't forget that driving the catalyst into cold flood water can wreck it - not cheap!!
There is a ford on the edge of our village that has claimed a good many victims this year, quite a few of the them have been 4x4's because the owners are over-confident and charge through.
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Interesting that only yesterday, Mr Money (Mike Rutherford) in the Motoring section of the Telegraph was saying what a great buy they are thanks to low depreciation!
tinyurl.com/ynvnl3
V
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>>....quite a few of the them have been 4x4's because the owners are over-confident and charge through.
I do not know all the details but on the TV and in the press were shots of an X5 sideways on with little showing above the water in the Kingston upon Thames one way system.
The road has a BIG dip in it to go under the railway. IMO only thickos would attempt to pass that way when it is flooded. There is plenty of indication that it is deep. There is an "escape road" for cars on the left, just a few feet from the water so what else is there left to say but to totally agree with Aprilia ?
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As a happy CR-V owner, I can't help but agree with Aprilia. I would never enter water I didn't know the depth of - the advantage for me is no more than that, if I see a 'normal' car go through OK, I can take the reasonable risk of using first gear, sticking to the crown of the road, and going through gently. I've also sen manhole covers pushed off, leaving a lethal submerged pit or a protruding lump of cast iron - another reason to go slowly.
I have been amazed to see the number of drivers - of all vehicle types - who think that maximum speed is the best approach, and who haven't the wit to wait for oncoming traffic before wading through on the crown. In my village these idiots - including but not limited to 4x4 drivers - have also exacerbated the flooding of homes with their bow waves.
Back on values, I think it depends where you start from - I suspect 4x4s have been far from the worst depreciators in general. Fashion aside (and most car purchases are influenced by fashion/image), I would expect any cars with poor fuel economy to be suffering with money getting tighter on the back of interest rates rises, and fuel heading for £1/litre again.
Just for the record, the gas-guzzling CR-V diesel currently has about 300 trip miles and 47.5mpg showing on the dash - it exaggerates a bit but it will still be about 46mpg. I'm happy to hang on to it while it plummets in value!
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Manatee,
I think in your last paragraph you put your finger on it. People will be reluctant to trade their 4x4s in now simply because of the increase in interest rates and the reduction in used values. One businessman I know has funded his fully loaded Disco 3 on credit, he'll be being squeezed now by people spending less on building work as Mortgages squeeze them and he'll be struggling before long, unless of course the flooding has brought him an unexpected windfall of course. Imagine buying a £34k vehicle on tick....he can't be the only one.
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I am always amazed at how much people will shell out for a 4x4 new and then use it exclusively for on road family transport.
Few people seem to have noticed personally that the 4x4 craze seems to have worked very well for the manufacturers - so many people seem to have fallen for the image and not realised that thru picking the 4x4 route are paying maybe £5-7k more for family transport than necessary. You see now alot of families now convinced (based on the fact they bought one) that a fairly average family vehicle should cost £18-25k eg a CRV or a Disco whereas I predict that if those same people were instead looking at a 2.0 hatch or estate they'd baulk at paying much more than say £16K. You can see why Nissan has released so many 4x4s compared to more modest mid range or large hatchbacks as frankly they can charge a hell of alot more for a vehicle often with cruder mechanicals and a simpler build process.
The fact that they are now worth alot less second hand to me shows the true worth of the vehicles - ie its basic utility and not its fancy marketing. Also the second hand market is almost all private buyers who are probably alot more sensitive to the cost of large tyres and higher fuel consumption.
I'd like a 4x4 buyer to explain why they make such good family transport. Every one I've been in has no more room (and often less room) than an existing estate car.
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picking the 4x4 route are paying maybe £5-7k more for family transport than necessary.
It?s a lifestyle purchase though, isn?t it? Generally people don?t buy the cheapest of anything ? 3 piece suite, TV, holiday etc ? they buy the one they want. Many people want 4x4?s. Women, especially, love the higher driving position ? it make them feel in control, and several we know feel superior to other road users (?the little people?, an otherwise normal friend of my wife?s said).
The difference here vs the US, is that most US SUV are actually only 2WD ? so they?re nothing more than jacked up estate cars. Nissan have done this with X-Trail and Qashqai, but then you get shouted at by the anti 4x4 lobby, but you don?t even have the benefit of a real 4x4.
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As a 4x4 buyer (03 Jeep Cherokee 3.7L, shame on me, I know) and having owned 15 different cars since I started driving, I bought my 4x4 because it is fun to drive, access is very easy, I believed it was safer (when the grandchildren arrived) than my existing Fiesta, is roomy and everyone gets a good view, including the dog. Having owned a Nissan Patrol Safari 4.2 in Saudi Arabia for a few years I already had plenty of experience with a 4x4. And it keeps me safe from the Surrey drivers, I hope.
I know it is expensive to run, relatively, but having bought it as a top of the range ex courtesy car, with all the bells and whistles, 10 months old with 7000 miles it was a reasonably good buy, I believe.
Of course, I get pangs of guilt about having it sometimes, but I am somewhat stuck with it, bearing in mind the current depreciation rates etc, as this thread has identified.
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From this week's Mr Money in The Telegraph/motoring
Let's start on a positive note and acknowledge the fact that the "right" large, high-quality 4x4s have a history of enjoying some of the smallest percentage reductions in value when one year old. A Toyota Land Cruiser, for example, might be worth as much as 90 per cent of its original purchase price after 12 months, a Mercedes M-class 88 per cent, a Volvo XC90 84 per cent, a VW Touareg 82 per cent, a Land Rover Discovery 80 per cent, a BMW X5 75 per cent and a Range Rover 70 per cent. Using the same method of calculation, the figure for the little Suzuki Jimny 4x4 is 52 per cent, which is atrocious - but not the worst.
You might have been led to believe that medium-to-large Mercs are the wisest financial bet, but that's not the case over a one-year period. After 12 months, an Audi A6 is worth an impressive 85 per cent, on average, of its original value, a Mercedes E-class 78 per cent, a BMW 5-series 68 per cent and a Jaguar S-type 64 per cent.
In the family/executive saloon market there are some shockers. The Renault Laguna is worth only 43 per cent of its original value after one year/10,000 miles, a Citroën C5 42 per cent and a Peugeot 607 40 per cent. The Hyundai Sonata scrapes the barrel at a disgraceful 32 per cent.
In the hatchback sector, the VW Golf is a good bet since it will typically retain around 80 per cent of its value after one year, which is a little embarrassing for the Ford Focus (62 per cent), Renault Mégane (60), Vauxhall Astra (58) and Hyundai Accent (40).
The figures for small cars such as the MINI (84 per cent), Honda Jazz and Toyota Aygo (79), VW Polo (77) and Seat Ibiza (70) are, at best, highly respectable or, at worst, thoroughly acceptable.
The same cannot be said of the equivalent figure for the Suzuki Liana, which will be worth only 42 per cent of what it originally cost 12 months down the line.
Other cars worthy of mention for the right reasons are the BMW Z4 (85 per cent), Nissan 350Z (84), Mercedes SLK (83), Mazda RX-8 (81), Lexus RX (79) and Audi TT (77).
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Using the same method of calculation the figure for the little Suzuki Jimny 4x4 is 52 per cent which is atrocious - but not the worst.>>
So, why can't I find a one-year old Jimny for £5,000? At this price, they all appear to be 3 years old.
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You might have been led to believe that medium-to-large Mercs are the wisest financial bet but that's not the case over a one-year period. After 12 months an Audi A6 is worth an impressive 85 per cent on average of its original value a Mercedes E-class 78 per cent a BMW 5-series 68 per cent and a Jaguar S-type 64 per cent.
I simply don't believe those numbers - no way the Audi is that good, or the BMW that bad.
Anyway (and we've been through this many times) the percentage figures are completely pointless - you use £ to buy and sell cars, not %. Those figures are always based on list price too, which on some of the volume cars are way off what people actually pay.
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I agree when did anyone last pay the list price for a Focus? The whole argument on depreciation falls apart on close examination. Fiats often seem to plummet in value but only an idiot would walk out of a showroom paying list for a Fiat. The whole car pricing farce should be pulled apart when did you last have to haggle for a fridge?
Ive seen the infamous Jimmy at over 3K off list, how does that real life figure stack up? I have a Panda and ive never met anyone who has paid list for one, as I said list prices are a joke.
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In the hatchback sector the VW Golf is a good bet since it will typically retain around 80 per cent of its value after one year which is a little embarrassing for the Ford Focus (62 per cent)....
Not really. Anyone can get 10% off a Focus at a Ford dealer. It takes some doing to get free mats in a VW.
The "real" gap based on what you pay in the real world is a few percent, if that.
Cheers
DP
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04 Grand Scenic 1.9 dCi Dynamique
00 Mondeo 1.8TD LX
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Any drop in used 4x4 prices is welcomed by those of us who actually need a big 4x4, but can't afford to buy a new one.
We run a 2001 Discovery II ES, and saved a fortune by buying it second hand. Its perfect for towing the horse trailer, or our big ifor williams laden with hay or a tractor. How am I supposed to get across a muddy field in the depths of winter in a Prius?
I'm glad there are muppets out there that have been buying big 4x4s and using them around town - their cars usually have a FSH, and have never ventured further off road than a footpath - once I get hold of it, the 4x4 gets the life that it was built for!
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Colin-E
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One thing nobody has mentioned here..........have you noticed the number of 2 wheel drive "4x4's" (sorry for the confusion, but not sure what to call a 4x4 that ain't any more) that are being manufactured? Vauxhall, Jeep etc with intelligent 4 wheel drive when needed. Are the makers concerned that the days of the 4x4 are numbered and playing to the right on sandalista crowd?
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One thing nobody has mentioned here.
I mentioned it earlier in the thread, thinking about the Nissan models, and that this is common in the US. The Jeep Grand Cherokees you hire in Florida have 4x4 badges on the tailgate but they're only 2 wheel drive.
Problem I see in the UK is that you'd still be attacked by lentlists as they can't discriminate between the 4x4 and 2x4 versions.
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