New large US oil discovery - artful dodger {P}
Chevron have discovered a new large oil field in the Gulf of Mexico that could increase US reserves by up to 50%. Wjat is also interesting is that BP and Shell have drilling leases in adjacent areas. Perhaps our oil wil not run out quite as soon as we expect.

www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml?xml=/money/20...l


--
Roger
I read frequently, but only post when I have something useful to say.
New large US oil discovery - J Bonington Jagworth
It'll only encourage them to buy more Hummers...
New large US oil discovery - glowplug
I expected the post to say Iran ;-)


---
Xantia HDi.

Buy a Citroen and get to know the local GSF staff better...
New large US oil discovery - AlanGowdy
Not for a moment would I encourage complacency but........ I'm old enough to remember the oil shortage of 1973 when one of the periodic Middle East skirmishes flared into a full scale war. Expert after expert proclaimed that the world would run out of oil by the end of the decade. Even the most optimistic could not see it lasting until the end of the 20th century.

Experts - dontcha luv 'em?
New large US oil discovery - Lud
My only piece of published fiction, which appeared in the seventies in the literary magazine Bananas, is a comic science-fictionish motoring story set thirty years in the future - round about now. It predicted a world that I believe NowWheels and Sir John Whitmore would thoroughly approve, with ownerless, self-driving passenger-carrying devices pottering around at 20mph or thereabouts, and disused main roads. The central character, Mr. Murgatroyd, still keeps a 1958 Vauxhall Cresta, converted to run on gas as there is no more petrol. He is not a happy man.
New large US oil discovery - wotspur
Wasn't there a film where oil had run out or nearly had and on the punishment of death from fuel policemen , anyone found using stored fuel, but there were a group who played around in the middle of the desert with some dragsters . Can't remember the story/name or outcome can anyone help
New large US oil discovery - Westpig
Mad Max?
New large US oil discovery - TheOilBurner
Who's saying oil will run out? Nobody with any credibility.

The key issue is, are we finding enough new oil to replace the oil we are burning up? The answer to that, despite decent finds like this one is no.
Also, can production match or exceed demand for oil? The current high prices suggest we can't. Oil production has been on a plateau now for some months, despite record high demand across the globe. We certainly need this GoM discovery, and a lot more besides.

We use around 3 barrels of oil for every 1 new barrel discovered. Those "discoveries" also include upwardly revised estimates of reserves in known fields.

Something's gotta give. Maybe not today, tomorrow or the next day, but eventually (and it could be decades away) there will be a crunch.

Should we care now? That's a tough one to answer. Better to prepare for the future or procrastinate? Not for me to say.
New large US oil discovery - madf
There are large quantities of oil in the ground. But there is little new being discovered that is cheap to find and produce.
Check out the depth of water in the above story...
madf
New large US oil discovery - DP
I agree with madf.

When oil prices are high, as they are now, the more difficult (read expensive) to exploit reserves start to become attractive. If oil was $30 a barrel, it's very unlikely these reserves would even make headlines because no oil company on the planet could profitably develop them.

Cheers
DP

New large US oil discovery - Murphy The Cat
Chevron have discovered a new large oil field in the Gulf
of Mexico that could increase US reserves by up to 50%.


The weird thing is that this article was first put out in 2004 - i wonder why it has been resurrected ?

www.chevron.com/news/press/2004/2004-09-07.asp
MTC
New large US oil discovery - NowWheels
www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml?xml=/money/20...l


The eport speaks of "up to 15bn barrels of crude oil" (emphasis on weasel words added by me). To place that in context, does anyone know what the US's annual oil consumption is?
New large US oil discovery - Pugugly {P}
BP's shares seem to be drfting downwards in New York and London as do Chevron's.

The real story seems to lie here
uk.biz.yahoo.com/060905/323/gla46.html

Which to me suggests that the reserve found in 2004 has been "tapped".

Hurricane season again though.
New large US oil discovery - NowWheels
uk.biz.yahoo.com/060905/323/gla46.html

Ah. Thanks PU

So this monster new oil field holds between 7 months and three years supply for the USA.

Worth having, but it's allow only a short delay in the rush to find alternatives to oil.
New large US oil discovery - Pugugly {P}
Enough until the next US Election then - that's been in the news today although well buried in the UK by the demise of the Dear Leader.
New large US oil discovery - daveyjp
There's plenty of oil still under the North Sea from previously expolited wells (some wells have only had 15% of their reserves removed), but has has been alluded to it currently costs more to extract it than the product can be sold for. As oil becomes more scarce and prices rise it will become economically viable to reopen the old wells.
New large US oil discovery - Xileno {P}
I expect a lot of the closed coal pits will reopen one day, hopefully without Arthur Scargill though.
New large US oil discovery - DP
Yes, this was discussed on Radio 4 recently. The technology exists to capture the carbon dioxide from coal fired power stations, and pump it into rocks deep underground. As with everything else though it comes down to money.

They're burning gas in a lot of power stations now, which is a criminal waste.

Cheers
DP
New large US oil discovery - Westpig
I genuinely think that was the plan you know........... keep our coal whilst we used up all the cheap foreign stuff.

Having difficulty keeping this motoring though, so maybe i'll regulate myself.
New large US oil discovery - bell boy
I expect a lot of the closed coal pits will reopen
one day, hopefully without Arthur Scargill though.

er arthur was for keeping them open rather than having to import oil for power stations that one day might power electric cars,the govt shut them because of coal dust claims (my father was one of them ) and the fact that imports of coal were cheaper at the time
New large US oil discovery - NowWheels
As oil becomes more scarce and prices rise it will become economically viable to reopen the old wells.


In other words, prices will stay high, and may get higher, while curve of diminishing supply slopes more gently.

I'm sure that for many decades to come, there will still be a lot of oil available. But the extraction costs will be increasingly high, the extraction rates may be low, so the gap between demand and supply will widen.
New large US oil discovery - bell boy
the problem will be that the generations to come wont want to work down coal mines, open cast, or in the north sea, we have lost the the 'hard' people that are willing to do this (apart from the few )
New large US oil discovery - Stuartli
There are still considerable quantitites of oil around the world available - the problem lies with actually getting at it due to the area, terrain and other logistical difficulties as current supplies begin to run out in the future.

We will still continue to rely on the Middle East for the bulk of oil supplies.

There are other factors. Iraq, for instance:

tinyurl.com/jklt2

Oil extraction difficulties:

news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/5305950.stm

tinyurl.com/jp7au

lifeaftertheoilcrash.net/
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
What\'s for you won\'t pass you by
New large US oil discovery - TheOilBurner
Let's hope we don't have to rely too much on the Middle East. There's ever growing rumours that Saudi Arabia is, or are approaching peak production, much like the North Sea did in 1999. SA even had to import some oil for domestic consumption recently, a unique event for the world's largest (till recently) oil producer.

See: tinyurl.com/erqz6

BTW, I wouldn't recommend anyone spend too long at Llife after the oil crash, it's the most extreme doom point of view there is. Well apart from one other site that I can think of but won't mention.

For more balanced, well sourced information there's sites like:

www.grinzo.com/energy/

and

www.energybulletin.net/
New large US oil discovery - artful dodger {P}
>>But the extraction costs will be increasingly high, the extraction rates may be low, so the gap between demand and supply will widen.

Also as production costs increase and prices rise, then alternative forms of energy might become available or feasible, e.g. hydrogen. If this happens then the rate of depletion of oil will fall and make the supplies last longer.




--
Roger
I read frequently, but only post when I have something useful to say.
New large US oil discovery - NowWheels
Also as production costs increase and prices rise, then alternative forms
of energy might become available or feasible, e.g. hydrogen. If this
happens then the rate of depletion of oil will fall and
make the supplies last longer.


So far, nobody seems to be planning on using hydrogen as an energy source. The technologies in use so far all seem to be using hydrogen as a means of ernrgy tranmission, just like electricity.

The big question with current hydrogen technologies is not really about the difficulty of storing and distributing the stuff, but the more fundamental question of what form of primary energy generates it. Using fossil-fuel power stations to generate leccy to make hydrogen would be horrenously inefficient.
New large US oil discovery - cjehuk
The big question with current hydrogen technologies is not really about
the difficulty of storing and distributing the stuff, but the more
fundamental question of what form of primary energy generates it. Using
fossil-fuel power stations to generate leccy to make hydrogen would be
horrenously inefficient.


Any method of creating hydrogen is vastly energy consuming. The least energy intensive way to create it is from natural gas, but that moves rather than eliminates the CO2 source. Hydrogen can't be used as an energy source because it does not occur naturally. All it can be is a transport medium and to get the same kind of range we get from our petrol and diesel cars we'd need a tank at immense pressures the size of a petrol tanker. Hardly safe, energy efficient or practical.
New large US oil discovery - TheOilBurner
Hydrogen? Don't even go there...

Did you see the latest Hydrogen car in AutoExpress? It was a Mazda RX8 with a huge tank, dreadful range and pitiful performance. Not to mention the fact that the preferred method for creating hydrogen is from natural gas, something that's not exactly abundant either.

Don't hold your breath for that one!
New large US oil discovery - Adam {P}
Lets say they were hydrogen powered, wouldn't we have a problem when they crashed?

(Assuming of course that we don't get speed limiters which will stop all crashes)
New large US oil discovery - NowWheels
Lets say they were hydrogen powered, wouldn't we have a problem when they crashed?


Would a tank of hydrogen be any worse than a tank of petrol? (Not being sarky, I dunno the answer, and hope someone does!)
(Assuming of course that we don't get speed limiters which will stop all crashes)


Yawn. Any device only offers some help. Airbags don't prevent all injuries, but doesn't make them a bad idea.
New large US oil discovery - Armitage Shanks {p}
US has also worked out that they have enough coal to turn into oil to last them for 20 years! Problem is that it involves open cast mining the whole state of Montana! Not popular!
New large US oil discovery - Altea Ego
US has also worked out that they have enough coal to
turn into oil to last them for 20 years! Problem
is that it involves open cast mining the whole state of
Montana! Not popular!


Its very popular in all the other states. The scary thing is they are looking seriously at this proposal.
------------------------------
TourVanMan TM < Ex RF >
New large US oil discovery - Armitage Shanks {p}
TVM - thanks for posting. I don't recall the facts, do you? They might have said 50 years supply, not 20!
New large US oil discovery - Adam {P}
>>Would a tank of hydrogen be any worse than a tank of petrol? (Not being sarky, I dunno the answer, and hope someone does!)<<

No idea - petrol drips onto the floor in a crash whereas if the hydrogen tank ruptures, it would be all around. I wouldn't really want to be sitting around either.

>>Yawn.<<

I'm doing that a lot myself recently.
New large US oil discovery - Thommo
We've been here before and I usually get in to an argument with NW about oil reserves but the bottom line is that there is enough oil in Saudi Arabia alone to last the world 50+ years (marginal cost of production US$2 by the way). There is more oil in Canada than in Saudi Arabia but its mostly heavy oil and only economic above about US$25 a barrel. There are vast reserves in Siberia that dwarf even these.

Oil prices at present (maybe always) are being driven by politics rather than any other factor and reflect the fact that most reserves are in politically sensitive areas.

The arabs have used oil as a political weapon for years. Someone above stated that we ran out of oil in 1973, we did no such thing, OPEC announced that it would embargo any state that supported Israel in the ongoing Yom Kippor War. This did result in a quadrupling of oil prices but no real embargo as the USA stared at the Saudis really hard and the Saudis blinked first.

Russia is using oil and gas supplies as a political weapon to try and control the former USSR states and also re-establish itself as a player on the world stage.

Venezuela is also using oil supplies as a political weapon.

However the high oil price is driving technological change and I believe in 50 years time we will see step changes in both battery and nuclear technologies that will render oil irrelevant much as horses were rendered largely irrelevant by the invention of the internal combustion engine.

Of course virtually unlimited cheap energy brings issues of its own...
New large US oil discovery - TheOilBurner
Thommo, my one question is this: do you accept that individual countries oil production will rise, peak and then decline?

The North Sea peak (followed by steep decline) happened in 1999. The USA in 1970.

If it can happen in the North Sea and the USA (and others), will it not eventually happen to the worlds collective production?

If so, then talking about Saudi reserves for X number of years or vast amounts of Canadian tar sands (most of which will never leave the ground, the rest requiring vast amounts of natural gas and freshwater to extract, both in increasingly short supply) is neither here nor there.

To put it another way, yes there is plently of oil in SA to power the *current* demand for oil for X number of years. But the geological reality is that only a certain amount of oil can be produced daily without damaging those oil wells. You can have all the oil you want in the ground, but there's only so much you can pull out at any one time. You might have a trillion barrels of oil in reserves, but if you can only pull out a few hundred thousand barrels a day, it won't help much when current demand is 85 million barrels each and every day, and increasing.

It is those limitations in production and our constant thirst for more oil that will cause the problems. We will, for all intents and purposes, never run out of oil. But can world production match world demand?
Athabasca Tar Sands - Armitage Shanks {p}
If production from this area, which is economic at today's oil prices, was stepped up to match that of SA the sands would last for 40 years, maybe longer if recovery techniques were improved.

www.answers.com/topic/athabasca-oil-sands

Athabasca Tar Sands - madf
What you must understand in talking about oil reserves is there are TWO numbers:

Gross reserves: what is physically under the ground.

Recoverable Reserves: what can be economically extracted.

The Recoverable rate varies but usually ranges between 20 and 50% of Gross.

So you can extract some oil but not all of it.

And when you extract oil from a field, the space created is usually filled by water : water injection into fields is a away of getting more oil (done in Saudi) as is the much more costly steam injection (used for heavy viscous oil).

So there are LOTS of deliberately confusing articles claiming billions of barrels of reserves. They are usually GROSS figures and meaningless. The Recoverable figures are all important and the only meaningful measure.

And once a field is worke dout it may be reworkable IF the structure has not been damaged. If it is emptied too quickly then it may be irreparably damaged. Many large N Sea fields have been pumped as fast as possible to maximise returns in a very expensive and hostile environment.
madf
Athabasca Tar Sands - Armitage Shanks {p}
Yes that is covered in the link I posted. They are talking about 20% recovery, perhaps rising to 60% when/if techniques improve. Knowing *** all about oil wells I still think that it would be hard to damage several square miles, several feet deep, of tarry sand!
Athabasca Tar Sands - TheOilBurner
Knowing *** all about oil wells I still think
that it would be hard to damage several square miles, several
feet deep, of tarry sand!


Believe it or not, it is very easy to damage an oil well by over production. That may not make much sense to a lay person, but the oil industry are well aware of this issue, hence why some oil producers refrain from maximising production if possible - even when oil prices are very high.

Basically, the problem stems from water injection used to keep internal well pressure up. I won't go into details, because it's a very complex and quite boring subject, suffice to say that if you pump too quick, the injected water (and the natural gas also present in the well) forms a cap over the remaining oil which prevents any more oil being retrieved.

This doesn't happen overnight. It starts off as a small percentage of water cut, and increases over time until you're pretty much pumping water out of the ground with a small amount of oil mixed in.

Google oil production water cut and water/gas gap for more.

Also, this site has lots of technical info on oil wells and production issues:

www.theoildrum.com
Athabasca Tar Sands - NowWheels
So there are LOTS of deliberately confusing articles claiming billions of
barrels of reserves. They are usually GROSS figures and meaningless. The
Recoverable figures are all important and the only meaningful measure.


From what I have read of the peak oil school of thought, one of their arguments is that while recovery rates have tended to rise, estimates of extractable reserves have been inflated by assuming an ever-increasing recovery rate ... and that these (allegedly rather generous) assumed increases are often not borne out in the oil fields concerned. This is alleged to be particularly applicable in Saudi.
Athabasca Tar Sands - TheOilBurner
The Saudi and OPEC situation is further complicated by some political moves in the 1980s.

OPEC decided that each countries production quota would be directly related to the size of the remaining reserves.

Lo and behold, Saudi Arabia suddenly posted a huge increase in estimated reserves (without finding any more oil in the ground) enabling production rates to be increased and more dollars collected to pay for the huge social security experiment of the KSA. Unsurprisingly, the rest of OPEC soon followed suit.

Kuwait was one of the countries playing this game and have now admitted that their reserves could be much lower, in fact in-line with the original reserves estimates before the upward revisions.

So, what we have been told may or may not be in the ground and what really remains in the ground are two quite different things.
 

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