Its come to the point where i need to replace my current 4 wheeled money pit. I have been struggling with this for a long time and have come up with a short list (ok, the list for today!)
Im most interested in the amount of money i stand to lose on each one (the actual running costs are not factored into this really).
Most of the cars are from a well known west london car supermarket, but im using these for comparison. After 2 years and about 50k miles, which will have lost the most money?
in no particular order:
52reg hyundai coupe 2.7v6 se, 50k miles, silver £8700
x reg bmw 325i se saloon 70k miles light gold £8500
y reg bmw 325ci se 75k miles light gold £9800
53 honda accord 2.4 executive (with leather and sat nav) 40k, £10,000
A bit of an eclectic mix, but shows how undecided i am.
My thought is the bm coupe will depreciate less than than the saloon, but how much?
Sorry for the long post (my first here), but im interested to hear your thoughts.
Great forum by the way. Been reading for a while and thought id pick you brains a bit. i got bored of the last one i was on, they kept arguing! And no moderator :(
thanks for any comments
Andy
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Putting them into Glass's but three years older gives you
Hyundai - £3430 (£5270)
BMW saloon - £4680 (£3820)
BMW coupé - £5630 (£3170)
Honda - £4180 (£5820)
Therefore the BMW saloon is the clear winner, right? Er... no, because two years previously the BMWs were new models fresh off the line with a halo effect, and the Honda and Hyundai were old models which were significantly less desirable than their replacements. To be frank you wouldn't even be mentioning the old models on the same page as the BMWs. Meanwhile the newer models will benefit from the same effect as the older BMWs.
Therefore I would probably adjust the figures as follows - Hyundai +£900 retained value; BMW less £300 each retained value; Honda +£1000 retained value. This leaves you with
Hyundai £4370 depreciation
BMW saloon £4120 depreciation
BMW coupé £3470 depreciation
Honda £4920 depreciation
The BMW coupé still wins - but you have to take into consideration matters like fuel, insurance, maintenance (the coupé being the oldest and the Honda and Hyundai still having manufacturer's warranty, if properly serviced) and interest on the finance to take into consideration before working out the overall running cost.
Sorry but depreciation comparisons between such diverse cars can't ever be exact (certainly not when I do it!) but that's my best effort.
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thanks for the input.
do agree with the points you make. Doesnt seem like there is going to be much difference between any of them really. The hyundai is probably the sensible option, because the 52 plate hasa 5 year unlimited mileage warranty (assuming it has been correctly maintained). Got to be worth a bob or two!
hadnt realised how tough a decision it would be when i came to change the car! Been changing my mind almost daily for most of the year (been trying to sell the alfa, with no joy. Selespeed. Need i say any more!) Going on holiday, coming back then going to go to it.
Wife thinks i should just get a picanto like hers (fantastic car, thanks to this website for putting me on to it!). But i actually need to carry stuff in the boot.
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I've given up choosing cars on the basis of predicted residual value because the assumptions always change over 3 to 5 years.
With the way fuel prices are headed now, I would expect larger/thirstier cars to have very little demand. If you want to avoid depreciation an economical hatch or smaller diesel mpv would be the way to go
After 5 years and 50,000 miles none of those cars you list will be fantastically attractive although BMWs seem to find a home at any age/condition.
Why not budget on losing all of the value of the car over the next 5 years, choose one that's a popular colour and well-specced and just enjoy it. Whatever you sell it for will be a bonus.
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This is not the answer to the question but as the Honda has the best build quality and reliability it will be still be a desirable second-hand buy in 3 years' time. Second would be the Hyundai coupe. The BMWs would be really high mileage in 3 years time and a bit of a risk to a second-hand buyer in terms of possible repair bills.
The problem with estimating depreciation is that you're trying to guess which models will be most desirable some time in the future which are not necessarily the models which are desirable now.
One thing is certain, if you buy a car which has already lost 60-70% of its value in 3 years there is only 30-40% left to lose in the future, so something like a reliable 2002 Citroen C5 (if there is one) could be a pretty cheap motor to own!
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