BBC article here: news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/4236235.stm
Headline figure is that Jan 2005 saw 8.2% fewer new car registrations than Jan 2004, but even more dramatic is that the figure for private buyers was -21.2% (balanced by fleet sales, which are up 3%).
On the face of it, a 21% fall in private buyers seems huge. Is there any reason this is less dramatic than it seems? Were there an unusually large number of pre-registrations in Jan 2004? Or has the car market just fallen off a cliff edge?
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I think it is known as the economic cycle; several fat years followed by some thin ones. The recent increase in interest rate have probably caused a lot of people to think twice about spending money. It used to be called 'stop/go' but G Brown says he has smoothed things out, but perhaps not entirely.
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The smmt web site (www.smmt.co.uk) has an interesting spreadsheet showing sales (well, registrations) for all car makers, comparing jan 05 to jan 04. Dangerous to draw too many conclusions from one month's figures (particularly given the whole pre-reg fiddle), but interesting none-the-less. Looks like VW, BMW and Mercedes are doing badly, particularly bearing in mind the generally good fleet numbers. Toyota and Honda are holding their own (pretty static figures). Hyundai down a bit (surprisingly, to me), Kia up. Most dramatic is probably Fiat - down about 50%, and overtaken in sales by Kia. Renault doing much better than Peugeot. Interesting that the megane is number 4 seller overall.
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Retail sales have gone pretty quite at the moment and you may well find a lot of pre-reg's on the market in the near future
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The smmt web site (www.smmt.co.uk) has an interesting spreadsheet showing sales
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spreadsheet? - where is it please?
i can't see it anywhere obvious.
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spreadsheet? - where is it please? i can't see it anywhere obvious.
lib.smmt.co.uk/articles/news/News/Jan%2005%20-%20%...p
or from the front page click on Other Top Stories/January new car registrations, then click on Download Report.
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Fiat are down partly because the new chap in charge is stepping on dealers who pre-reg lots of cars as this adversely affects second hand values. This should mean in a year or two prices of second hand fiats should go up. There is also the big doubt over their future with GM as they want GM to buy a chunk of them or something. Anyway, they haven't agreed and it is going to court. Fiat are also traditionally a cheap skate's brand and those are the people that will have been squeezed the most in the last 12 months. Their advertising has also been a bit hit and miss. I bet the panda is selling well. The punto has had a naff facelift and no one is buying stilos so that isn't going to do them any good. They don't have a big car that would appeal to fleets either. All new croma is due out in a year or three so that might attract the reps back and get their figures back up.
teabelly
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Not really surprising - remember the story a few weeks ago about the poor level of spending over Christmas? A lot of people have moved house and increased their mortgages, this has been exacerbated by the increase in interest rates whch affects those who haven't moved. Such increases don't leave much left for new cars.
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Interesting quote from the Commentary section of the report:
"Part of the appeal of MPVs, and 4x4 models, is their resistance to theft. According to the National Audit Office's report Reducing Vehicle Crime, MPVs and 4x4s are half as likely to be stolen as small saloons, minis and supermini models."
Criminals ecologically-minded, or perhaps they don't go fast enough!
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