Duty is a large part of the price of petrol/diesel but it's not the only factor. As it's been frozen any change between now and next year's budget will be due to those 'other factors'.

They include:

• the market price of crude oil - usual demand supply rules apply as do geo politics. Russian shenanigans may have an effect as will any Israel/Arab/US/Iran flare up, so might demand as western economy recovers.
• Oil is priced in dollars. The pound has risen against the dollar of late so price of a barrell in £ has falen
• Refining capacity. UK produces too much petrol and not enough diesel. Supply demand and diesel's similarity to the oil fraction used for heating can push its price well ahead of petrol.

Price at the pump now is about what it was at peak in 2008 but it fell back a long way early in the recession.

Edited by Bromptonaut on 21/03/2014 at 15:12

Tax is the majority of the pump price and I think this is the first time in over 20 years it's been frozen for this long. It was one of Gordon Brown's favourites, he put it up 2p every year but I don't think the current Government have touched it since they've been in office - they did put VAT up though, so don't let them off the hook entirely.

The Tories scapped the fuel duty escallator.

www.telegraph.co.uk/motoring/news/10011418/We-will...l

The original fuel duty escalator was introduced in 1993 to give an annual increase of RPI +3%, later 5%. Chancellor then was Kenneth Clarke and the stated justification was environmental. Under Labour it was increased to RPI+6% but abolished after the fuel duty protests in 2000.

Since then both parties have increased duty selectively, as was always the case, though recently planned increases have tended to be abandoned under pressure from Number 10.