Oil is essential not just to motoring as we know it, but our entire way of life as we know it, so its something I take an interest in. I would be interested to hear the views of the backroom with regard to oil prices and peak oil.
Here's my prediction:
The global encomony goes back to growth within the next 2 years. This increases demand for oil, which in turn pushes prices back to new record highs. The new high price of oil pushes many countries back into recession, demand drops and he oil price drops again. This cycle continues for 10-20 years, until the world has adapted to life post peak oil.
Do you accept peak oil? If not, then why?
How will we adapt our current energy hungry way of life? Less demand or replace it with other sources?
Personally, I think that current petrol/diesel prices are affordable. I reckon on around £2 a litre within 2 years, at which point our encomony will start to suffer.
Edited by Pugugly on 15/05/2009 at 21:29
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Pretty much my thoughts on the subject, we won't stop still most of it is in landfill or been turned into fuel.
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I believe that there are plenty of oil reserves, it is not economically viable to access them yet. The Falkland islands sit on a huge shallow platau, similar to the north sea, my suspicious mind wonders why we are so keen to keep it, and the Argentinians are so keen to get it.
Edited by Old Navy on 15/05/2009 at 21:42
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I believe that there are plenty of oil reserves it is not economically viable to access them yet.
The problem is that it may never be viable to access them. The current low oil price is being cited as the reason why there is less exploration at present. This means less production in the future, possibly pushing up prices - another factor in the oil price roller coaster we are looking at.
The Falkland islands sit on a huge shallow platau similar to thenorth sea my suspicious mind wonders why we are so keen to keep it and the Argentinians are so keen to get it.
Have to agree, why did we go to war over some barren islands in the middle of nowhere with only a handfull of people living there.
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>>The Falkland islands sit on a huge shallow platau similar to the north sea my suspicious mind wonders why we are so keen to keep it and the Argentinians are so keen to get it.
this current lot don't seem overly keen on keeping it....they've run the navy down to such a low that we couldn't do anything about keeping it miltarily now...we'd have to rely on diplomacy
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>>they've run the navy down to such a low that we couldn't do anything about keeping it >>miltarily now...we'd have to rely on diplomacy
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Unfortunatly that applies to all the armed forces, The politicians are trying to be a world power on a third world budget. Delusions of grandure I think. Glad I am well out of it!
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End of the recession, oil prices and peak oil >>
I agree that the boom bubble, fed by the crazy credit lending by the Banks, was burst by the oil price spike of 2008. All those people living on sub-prime credit were unable to pay their debts because they preferred to spend on their fuel rather and cut back on other "luxuries".
Moonshine's prediction of future booms and busts may hold true for other economies, but for the UK, due to the massive borrowing by Darling-Gordon, most taxpayers will have to pay increased taxes to the Treasury for years irrespective who is power, and there just won't be much spare cash left for most families to restart their old spending habits.
I wish I could be more positive and cheerful about it, but I fear that tax, spending cuts, plus any rise in oil prices may mean an austere 19 years or more for most of us in the UK. One positive fact to note that so far, madf's forecast
www.honestjohn.co.uk/forum/post/index.htm?v=e&t=70...8
of extreme low levels of FTSE index have not materialised.
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the UK due to the massive borrowing by Darling-Gordon most taxpayers will have to pay increased taxes to the Treasury for years irrespective who is power and there just won't be much spare cash left for most families to restart their old spending habits.
Was it bliar who said we have never had so good? I think he was right and that maybe we will never have so good again. Repaying the darling-gordon spending spree will be a burden for many for many years - I was toying with the idea of getting a mazda3 MPS - but with lean times ahead I may have to pass on that!
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Peak Oil is a myth created for the "problem-reaction-solution".
Edited by Hamsafar on 15/05/2009 at 22:14
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They've been saying since the 1870s that there's only another 20 years of coal left.
There's nothing new under the sun.
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The simply reply is the earth has a finite amount of oil and a finite amount of coal. Every day humans deplete these finite amounts of oil & coal.
The earth can only give up a certain amount of oil per day for any given oil well/field. If humans try to consume more than the earth is able to supply then consumption is damped by price increases until such time when consumption falls back to supply levels. The alternative is fuel rationing at some time in the future. Fuel rationing has been used before as a means and an aid for a nations survival & maintenance of social stability.
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It will eventually end in resourse wars.
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They've been saying since the 1870s that there's only another 20 years of coal left.
No, "they" haven't. More like 200 years.
The amount of anything left increases dramatically as the price goes up.
However, the internal combustion engine fired by oil products is very nearly at end-of-life. It won't exist for more than a couple of decades, at the outside.
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Peak Oil is a myth created for the "problem-reaction-solution".
I fail to see how peak oil can be a myth, unless we have a never ending supply of oil - which we dont as the amount of oil in the ground is finite.
Would you care to explain why you believe it to be a myth?
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