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Manheim Remarketing's long range Market Analysis

Manheim Remarketing's latest 3-Year Market Analysis for Cars shows that wholesale values of used 4x4s have increased significantly in all three market sectors (Manufacturer, Fleet and Dealer part exchanges) when compared with Q3 2007 while over the same period values of Mini-MPVs and MPVs have declined in all three market sectors.

These were the only three vehicle segments to show either an increase or decrease in values across the board, in all three market sectors. The long range report also shows that the average age of vehicles in the Fleet sector has increased by six months to 48 months since Q2 2009 as the impact of contract extensions has begun to be felt. Overall average values were up by just 2.7% (£183) to £6,853 when compared with Q3 2007 but a massive 31.7% (£1,648) up on Q4 2008, the most difficult quarter for many years.

The increase in prices of used 4x4s has been most significant in the Dealer sector with part exchange values up by 37.5% (£1,333) to £4,885 with average age and mileages at similar levels. In the Manufacturer sector values were up by 31.9% (£4,961) to £20,521 even though average age was also up, to 29 months compared with 21 months and average mileage was 26,500 miles, up by 8,500 miles, while in the Fleet sector values were up by 24.2% (£2,296) to £11,772. In the Fleet sector average age of 4x4s was 50 months compared with 44 months, while average mileage was 56,000 miles compared with 46,000 miles in Q3 2007.

While 4x4s are enjoying increased values and popularity compared with Q3 2007, Mini-MPVs and MPVs are faring less well. Average values of part exchange Mini-MPVs in the Dealer sector fell by 24.8% (£706) to £2,137, in the Fleet sector values were down 5.1% (£268) to £4,956 and in the Manufacturer sector down 1.8% (£224) to £12,394. In the Dealer and Fleet sectors average age and mileages were significantly higher, which would account for some of the fall, but little variance was seen in the Manufacturer sector. Meanwhile Dealer part exchange MPV values fell the most, down 22.9% (£765) to £2,569 with the Manufacturer sector down 9.5% (£1,381) to £13,145 with stability reported in the Fleet sector. Average age and mileages were also significantly higher in the Dealer and Fleet sectors.

Mike Pilkington, Managing Director, Manheim Remarketing said: "The past three years in the wholesale used car market have been extraordinary. Wholesale values have suffered the worst decline in living memory, staged a dramatic recovery and then returned to a familiar seasonality once more. Next year we expect continued stability and, while the VAT increase is unlikely to have any material impact on values, the lack of good quality, older used stock for franchised dealers due to lack of new car registrations in 2008/9 will help support prices. We expect demand from buyers at auction to remain strong in Q1 in line with seasonal norms."

 

Manheim Re Marketing - 3 Year Quarterly Market Analysis for Cars (November 2010)

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