This is a great question and one that I think about often bearing in mind my line of work.
For one thing, I can tell you Hybrids and Plug-In Hybrids will not be featuring much. They are a complete waste of time, money and resource. The only reason they are popular in the company car market is the quoted CO2 rating which translates into a low BIK liability. Other than that they are expensive to make, less environmentally friendly to make, far less economical (in real world terms), typically underpowered and have less space owing to the battery.
2 examples 1) a customer just ordered an X5 hybrid. Fuel economy is terrible but the cost to him is less than 1/2 of what a cheaper diesel X5 would have been 2) a fleet customer I just picked up took on a PHEV fleet 3 years ago thinking it was a good idea and whilst the BIK reduced nicely for the employees, the fuel bill doubled, plus the vehicles were more expensive to lease.
I see full EV vehicles being the way forwards. This is being spearheaded by Tesla who have a decent size saloon plus a suv which will do around 300 miles on a charge, the forthcoming model 3 mid size saloon will have a range of around 250 miles and they are also working on a Tesla lorry. Battery technology is only getting better with more efficient cells and motors. The only downside to EV's in my mind is they have no soul. If you are doing 0-62 in 3.2s (Model X with Ludicrous - I've done it ) you want to hear some drama as well as feel the performance, but you dont so it somewhat mutes (pun intended) the experience.
As a graduation from battery EV, perhaps a modern inductive power provision (read futuristic scalextric on a grand scale) is the way it will go.
All I do know is that the oil companies will do everything they can to extend the life of the ICE through support in the development of cleaner diesel and petrol engines.
TheBroker
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When electric cars stop being a niche, how will the taxman react ? Most electric cars pay no tax to use the roads - and they only pay VAT once over 25K, due to the 5K bung (discount) given to the buyer by taxpayers. It's all very well for the rich folk, but once poor folk can afford EVs, expect the taxman to wake up. I can't see full self-drive cars for some time, but I think there will be a much increased 'assistance' to drivers.
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When electric cars stop being a niche, how will the taxman react ? Most electric cars pay no tax to use the roads - and they only pay VAT once over 25K, due to the 5K bung (discount) given to the buyer by taxpayers. It's all very well for the rich folk, but once poor folk can afford EVs, expect the taxman to wake up. I can't see full self-drive cars for some time, but I think there will be a much increased 'assistance' to drivers.
Absolutely, cars will be taxed more heavily at the front end, road fund license will be adjusted accordingly to tax EV's and there will most likely be a EV charging tax as well (seperate metre or recording on EV charging). also companies offering at work charging will have to register this and a BIK for their employees whereby the car will be fully expensed rather than just a company car. There are a myriad of ways in which the taxes will be replaced to compensate for the loss in fuel duty (look what they did with LPG).
The oil companies will be propping the industry up first though to ensure sales through the development of cleaner burning (not necessarily improved economy though if they have any sense).
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There are a myriad of ways in which the taxes will be replaced to compensate for the loss in fuel duty (look what they did with LPG).
woah, stop the bus, what's this? i've got two LPG cars and had the current Landcruiser been petrol that would have been three, what's in the pipeline that i've missed please? bearing in mind i filled up Weds for 53ppl and should i be bothered to jump through several hoops would get around a tenner off the VED because dual fuel.
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It is questionable whether electric is environmentally cleaner than petrol - although it may move emissions from city centres. Overall energy conversion efficiency may be little different to ICE due to conversion losses.
I know companies like Tesla are working on the obvious problems and may find a solution eventually - battery life of approx 8 years, high initial cost, very high cost of battery replacement, questionable second hand values
Worth noting that the energy densiity of a lithium ion battery is a little over 2% of that of petrol. Put another way 9 litres/2 gallons of fuel weighs about 8kg and drives a typical car about 80-120 miles. Nissan Leaf with a similar range has 300kg of batteries .
The problems won't stop there as if you want a 300mile range you will need around 900kg of batteries which will further reduce the range. In theory there could come a point where adding more batteries may even reduce the range due to the extra weight added.
i.
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Overhead cables are the answer, like trolley buses.
You'd just need a small battery pack for overtaking;)
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Power cables laid under all motorways and major A roads - electric vehicles can then recharge using induction pick ups on the move, and the short jouney segments in town using battery power. Overhead cables a la trolley bus are so last year - and vulnerable to wind, vandalism, leaves on the line etc
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"Power cables laid under all motorways and major A roads...."
Great idea - once installed. But can you imagine the chaos with all those brainless contractors digging up the motorways in their usual haphazard way and taking twice as long as budgeted. By the time they'd finished, someone would have invented new technology which made the cables obsolete.
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"Power cables laid under all motorways and major A roads...."
Great idea - once installed. But can you imagine the chaos with all those brainless contractors digging up the motorways in their usual haphazard way and taking twice as long as budgeted. By the time they'd finished, someone would have invented new technology which made the cables obsolete.
Much like 15 years ago, builders were installing telephone points in every room of a house so that people could plug their laptops in ... the technology of wifi becoming universal was not anticipated.
Imagine the cost of installing a system under every lane of every motorway and dual carriageway in the country - not to mention maintenance costs, getting the electricity supply to the motorway in enough high-power lines - and then, of course, you've got to have some system for billing people for the use of electricity - or a flat-rate system.
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"Power cables laid under all motorways and major A roads...."
Great idea - once installed. But can you imagine the chaos with all those brainless contractors digging up the motorways in their usual haphazard way and taking twice as long as budgeted. By the time they'd finished, someone would have invented new technology which made the cables obsolete.
Much like 15 years ago, builders were installing telephone points in every room of a house so that people could plug their laptops in ... the technology of wifi becoming universal was not anticipated.
Imagine the cost of installing a system under every lane of every motorway and dual carriageway in the country - not to mention maintenance costs, getting the electricity supply to the motorway in enough high-power lines - and then, of course, you've got to have some system for billing people for the use of electricity - or a flat-rate system.
I agree - regarding the wired home comment - my flat has telephone points in my living room and bedrooms, and yet I now find that if I upgrade to fibre broadband, they will be obsolete except for the phone, so I'll have to have the place completely rewired if I wanted to use my PC at full speed or just use WiFi. Upgrading road-based infrastructure is extortionately expensive - I remember an expert on a news item once saying that the cost of using underground power cabling was 10x the cost of using overhead power lines.
Anny below ground system would need to be so future proofed as well to be able to cope with increased usage and developments in technology, meaning that it would be much more expensive and would need to be as easily accessible as possible, which might necessitate a complete reconfiguration of the roads first to accommodate it.
I think you're right - it sounds like we're decades (at least) away from some 'utopia' mass automated transit system (not trains) as we see in scifi movies.
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Imagine the cost of installing a system under every lane of every motorway and dual carriageway in the country - not to mention maintenance costs, getting the electricity supply to the motorway in enough high-power lines.......
Quite right. Although electricity costs only 4p a unit to make, it's the best part of the 16p a unit we pay for it to get it to our houses. Much the same for gas.
The logical future for domestic power use including electric cars is local generation and energy storage, backed up by a few peaker power stations. I don't know why small British nuclear power plants aren't used more widely, like the ones powering some ships. As for the stupid costly white elephant plans for massive Chinese/French nuclear power stations....aaarrgghh! (sorry, going off topic here)
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The consensus seems to be that induction loops under motorways would be too expensive to install even if the work was done at the same time as other upgrades,
The only realistic option is standard interchangeable battery packs. The existing garage network could initially sell both petrol and battery exchange. Niche and second car applications may evolve where charging facilities are available.
Simple physics would mean that an 80kwh fast charge for your Tesla in (say) 5 minutes would require a power supply with a capacity of around 600kwh - a bit like 25 houses all using the electric shower, cooker, hob and kettle at the same time. And more than one vehicle may need recharging at the same time. This would require major re-engineering of the distribution system..
The obvious benefit of EVs is the reduction of city centre pollution - but possibly not total pollution. We would need to invest in a charging infrastructure, use potentially scarce and polluting materials in battery production, crack the low energy density/high weight of batteries vs petrol/diesel, high initial vehicle cost, battery replacement cost/life etc.
And if there is a financial benefit to consumers, you can be sure it will be taxed to offset reducing other duties.
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Simple physics would mean that an 80kwh fast charge for your Tesla in (say) 5 minutes would require a power supply with a capacity of around 600kwh - a bit like 25 houses all using the electric shower, cooker, hob and kettle at the same time.
And the same simple physics would mean a fair quantity of waste heat to be dissipated in the process, and the need for expensive high-capacity supply cables ....
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I remember reading the letters page in, i think it was car magazine, a few months ago. The letter in question was relating to a previous feature on electric cars, and was by someone who had something to do with the power grid (cant remember exactly what he did). He said, essentially, that if electric cars took off big style in the UK, the power supply as it is now, simply would not cope as it doesnt have the capacity to deal with large amounts of electric vehicles being recharged.
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Simple physics would mean that an 80kwh fast charge for your Tesla in (say) 5 minutes would require a power supply with a capacity of around 600kwh - a bit like 25 houses all using the electric shower, cooker, hob and kettle at the same time.
And the same simple physics would mean a fair quantity of waste heat to be dissipated in the process, and the need for expensive high-capacity supply cables ....
Indeed - transmission losses on electricity is still quite high (if you include all steps from generation to socket), plus, of course the generating losses to add in. Burning fuel such as natural gas (in boilers) or petrol/diesel in cars is more efficient, but means that pollutants are released near people, rather than in one isolated place that could filter out some of them. This issue has been the sticking point for decades and still looks to have some way to go yet.
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Simple physics would mean that an 80kwh fast charge for your Tesla in (say) 5 minutes would require a power supply with a capacity of around 600kwh - a bit like 25 houses all using the electric shower, cooker, hob and kettle at the same time.
And the same simple physics would mean a fair quantity of waste heat to be dissipated in the process, and the need for expensive high-capacity supply cables ....
Indeed - transmission losses on electricity is still quite high (if you include all steps from generation to socket), plus, of course the generating losses to add in. Burning fuel such as natural gas (in boilers) or petrol/diesel in cars is more efficient, but means that pollutants are released near people, rather than in one isolated place that could filter out some of them. This issue has been the sticking point for decades and still looks to have some way to go yet.
One thing people miss is the amount of electricity it takes to refine a gallon of petrol or diesel. Roughly speaking, the refining process the fuel used in a petrol or diesel car consumes as much electricity as would run an equivalent electric car.
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I'll take your word for that (it does seem rather high, given the energy density of the fuel itself), however using electric-powered cars still requires lots of infrastructure for charging near homes, workplaces, shops, etc etc which would be really costly and time consuming to install.
An article appeared in the DT about this issue (some Yanks saying that all cars would be electric by 2025) and a reader made the same point, as they asked their electricity utility firm if they could provide charging points to their block of flats - they said it would cost a fortune as the local infrastructure was not capable of handling the extra load. I suspect this is quite common, so charging facilities would only be upgraded slowly or installed on new developments once numbers of electric-only cars was high enough.
My guess was that the scenario would be reached in about 20-25 years minimum, probably more, given the buildings/areas don't get completely leveled every 25 years - even refurbs are mainly internal/cosmetic.
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There are a myriad of ways in which the taxes will be replaced to compensate for the loss in fuel duty (look what they did with LPG).
woah, stop the bus, what's this? i've got two LPG cars and had the current Landcruiser been petrol that would have been three, what's in the pipeline that i've missed please? bearing in mind i filled up Weds for 53ppl and should i be bothered to jump through several hoops would get around a tenner off the VED because dual fuel.
Nothing in pipeline, it's already happened. Do you not find it more than coincidence that the lpg price tracks with unleaded. It used to be much cheaper then the taxman realised
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Nothing in pipeline, it's already happened. Do you not find it more than coincidence that the lpg price tracks with unleaded. It used to be much cheaper then the taxman realised
In the last 12 months its been noticeably less than half the price of unleaded, and considerably less if you happen to be in one of the really cheap areas, a year or two ago and it was well over half the price of unleaded and i was worried it was on the way to 2/3rds.
I'm quite happy if its tracks unleaded and stays about half price, if it was too cheap lots of people would jump on the bandwagon and that would ruin it.
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Battery packs for EVs degenerate over time and probably cost megabucks thereby wiping out any savings on petrol or diesel. I like the idea of EVs but unless there were sufficient charging points you could be in a big queue waiting your turn to charge your vehicle.
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EV with range extenders could be the way to go. A mate has a BMW i3. Most of time just driven around his home county, batteries providing all the power he needs. Longer journeys with the 9 litre fuel tank are possible. Extra fuel is carried in case of emergencies in the boot. Recently 475 miles was covered in a day
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EV with range extenders could be the way to go. A mate has a BMW i3. Most of time just driven around his home county, batteries providing all the power he needs. Longer journeys with the 9 litre fuel tank are possible. Extra fuel is carried in case of emergencies in the boot. Recently 475 miles was covered in a day
Why does your mate carry fuel in the boot?. The range extender adds about 90miles on to the range, but i doubt you could get any more than 50 miles from a filling station in the UK, so carrying extra fuel seems a bit pointless, espescially as it will probably smell......!
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Worth remembering the late great Colin Chapman whose car manufacturing philosophy was "simplify and add lightness".
Lotus didn't always screw their cars together very well but when on song performed excellently.
Just to note that 300kg of L-ion batteries delivers about the same energy as 6kg of petrol, and that hybrid drive trains are a model of complexity.
Electric may become the motive power of choice one day but at the moment are way behind.
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Worth remembering the late great Colin Chapman whose car manufacturing philosophy was "simplify and add lightness".
Lotus didn't always screw their cars together very well but when on song performed excellently.
Just to note that 300kg of L-ion batteries delivers about the same energy as 6kg of petrol, and that hybrid drive trains are a model of complexity.
Electric may become the motive power of choice one day but at the moment are way behind.
Amen to that!
Far too many cars these days are too big and too heavy, far more than necessary. I read a short piece by (the equally great) Gordon Murray this morning in April's top gear magazine, basically complaining, rightly so in my opinion, about manufacturers focusing solely on performance 'targets', instead of how the car drives and feels. Weight is of course, a major factor in Gordon's design ethos, and pointed out a few eye openers. 1st of these being that the bugatti veyron needed an extra 565bhp to exceed the top speed of the F1 and weighed 750kg more!. Also, the fact that porsches much lauded 'hypercar', the 918, has a lower power to weight ratio than the F1!.
Back in the real world though, a few years ago when looking into our next new car, i was quite taken by the nissan note, particularly its low kerbweight. Unfortunately, my Wife has the final say (it is her motability car), and she went for the vauxhall meriva, which weighed over 300kg more than the nissan despite offering very little extra interior space!. We just recently took delivery of our latest car, a honda jazz (cvt), amongst the things which appealed to me was the kerbweight of just under 1100kg. Now the closest polo to our jazz is the 1.2tsi 90 dsg7, it weighs 40kgs more despite being smaller and having much less interior space. Of course, the winner in the 'svelte' supermini category is the mazda 2 at over 100kg less than the jazz, but the smaller interior and boot coupled with the lower seat height put us off.
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Gordon Murray has been working on the T25 microcar (and its T.27 electric version) for several years, the first prototype being unveiled in 2010. Examples of both cars have been around since 2010. The car was supposed to have been launched last year but still we only see occasional mentions of it in the motoring press.
In about the same timeframe the Tesla Model S has gone from a concept prototype (2009) to selling over 150,000 cars by last autum.
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Gordon Murray has been working on the T25 microcar (and its T.27 electric version) for several years, the first prototype being unveiled in 2010. Examples of both cars have been around since 2010. The car was supposed to have been launched last year but still we only see occasional mentions of it in the motoring press.
In about the same timeframe the Tesla Model S has gone from a concept prototype (2009) to selling over 150,000 cars by last autum.
Dont get me started on the T25!. It is such a crying shame that such a brilliant piece of design is not now in production. But such is the value of image over everything else car related these days that no manufacturer is willing to take on the T25 (it looks funny). very low weight, very safe, brilliant packaging, brilliant handling (due to the very low centre of gravity). I quite like the smart fortwo, but the T25 is light years ahead of it in every way that matters.
In a way it puts me in mind of the brilliant fiat ecobasic concept from back in about 2000. A very cleverly designed and basic 'green' car, before the term really started to be thought of and used. Around 750kg in weight, a full 4 seater and powered by a 1.2 turbo diesel, it would have been classed as a 3l in the EU fuel consuption (ie, 3l of fuel per 100km, or around 90mpg). A large portion of the car would have been made out of recycledmaterials, and the body panels were colour impregnated plastic (so no paint), fiat said they could produce and sell it at a profit, for around £4k. But of course, it looked funny, people wouldnt buy it!.
Hey ho, rant over!
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"Just to note that 300kg of L-ion batteries delivers about the same energy as 6kg of petrol, and that hybrid drive trains are a model of complexity."
And very reliable - much more so that ic cars - If made by Toyota...
Edited by madf on 15/05/2017 at 16:01
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The Murray T.25 / T.27 is indeed an interesting concept and I quite like the look of it. But in the end it's a microcar, smaller than a Smart. As an engineering solution it might be brilliant, but is it aiming at a non-existent market sector?
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next car trend is a horse and cart
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The Murray T.25 / T.27 is indeed an interesting concept and I quite like the look of it. But in the end it's a microcar, smaller than a Smart. As an engineering solution it might be brilliant, but is it aiming at a non-existent market sector?
A microcar, in the past, was something essentially tiny, with a tiny engine which offerd all the crash protection of an empty crisp packet. These days, it refers to small, usually French runabouts with 2 cylinder petrol or diesel engines mated to a cvt gearbox. And they dont offer anything like the same level 0f protection in a crash as most of us now expect in a car. So to refer to the T25/T27 as such is both extremely innacurate on the whole, and insulting to Gordon Murray's design genius. The T25/T27 has been proven to offer b segment levels of crash protection (like a fiesta, or polo). it is smaller than a smart car because it has been more inteligently designed, not because it is aimed at a different market. It offers 50% more seating capacity along with crash protection levels at least as good as the fortwo, so there is no reason it couldnt steal sales from it. If that is, a car company were brave enough to give it a go.
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