If the present financial crisis continues it is hard to see how the motor industry will survive without a major manufacturer going to the wall. Anyone got any idea who the most vulnerable is?
Edited by Pugugly on 07/10/2008 at 20:11
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FIAT
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FIAT
8 minutes. A remarkably long time for the inevitable FIAT bash to arrive. :-(
I've just got back from Serbia, which is still a poor country where people know a thing or two about value for money. Just about every second taxi in Belgrade these days is a Stilo Multiwagon, if it isn't a Dacia Logan. Taxi drivers around the world are not known for running expensive, unreliable wrecks.
Maybe if people didn't talk them down incessantly at every opportunity they would have a chance. Good cars and excellent value for money. Mind you it does seem to be only in the UK where their cars are routinely ignored or derided. And they had to withdraw the new Croma from the UK as a result, a very good car and streets ahead of the usual Vectras etc. IMHO of course.
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Taxi drivers around the world are not known for running expensive unreliable wrecks.
No, but in places were wages are low compared to the cost of cars, they may well buy cheap unreliable wrecks. If the cost saving of buying a cheaper car amounts to many months wages, that easily pays for some regular spannering.
That said, the worst taxi I ever rode in was in South-East London. An old Lada, where the nearside back door was held on by a bungee-cord to the other door, and one wheel was definitely loose. (Technically it was a minicab, in the days before they were regulated)
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No but in places were wages are low compared to the cost of cars they may well buy cheap unreliable wrecks. If the cost saving of buying a cheaper >> car amounts to many months wages that easily pays for some regular spannering.
Although I'm sure most cabbies don't relish the prospect of their car being off the road too frequently nor for too long each time it has to be, loss of earnings and all that.
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>>Taxi drivers around the world are not known for running expensive, unreliable wrecks.
I'm sure all taxi drivers are canny when it comes to reliable/good value cars for their work. It does rather beg the question though, of why they're not that canny in the UK & insist on buying Vauxhalls , Fords & Skodas, rather then Fiats.
Edited by woodbines on 07/10/2008 at 18:32
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I'm sure all taxi drivers are canny when it comes to reliable/good value cars for their work. It does rather beg the question though of why they're not that canny in the UK & insist on buying Vauxhalls Fords & Skodas rather then Fiats.
Easy. Big Fiats don't get sold here. A diesel Croma would make an excellent taxi.
Next.
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Easy. Big Fiats don't get sold here. A diesel Croma would make an excellent taxi.
Next.
Yes, well, precisely. They're not sold 'cos they don't sell. I'm sure if they made such good taxis, the demand would be such that they would continue to be sold. If then, the reputation gained via taxi drivers' good experiences with them became disseminated, then canny morotists would buy them.
Next.
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Easy. Big Fiats don't get sold here. A diesel Croma would make an excellent taxi. Next. Yes well precisely. They're not sold 'cos they don't sell. I'm sure if they made such good taxis the demand would be such that they would continue to be sold.
Bad assumption; you're confusing demand for new cars with demand for s/h ones.
None of the taxi drivers I know or use buy new cars; they buy secondhand bargains and run them into the ground or until their licensing authority makes them ditch the vehicle (some councils now impose an age limit on vehicles used as taxis).
Since taxi drivers don't buy new cars, they have little impact on the demand for new ones. Taxi drivers buy ex-repmobiles at about three years old at auction, and take their pick of what's available. Many of them would prefer MPVs for the space, but buy a Mondeo/Avensis/Primera because it's cheap in the secondhand market in which they buy. They are smart enough to know that in the UK car market, a new car is not a canny buy, and know that the first principle of cost-effective car ownership is to let someone else pay the massive depreciation in the first three years.
Edited by NowWheels on 08/10/2008 at 16:32
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Probably Chrysler.
They were described as "technically insolvent" even before the financial woes kicked in.
The rest seem relatively strong. Subaru and Mitsubishi are troubled, but the Japanese system is unlikely to allow them to go down, the Koreans have never been stronger, Fiat is vulnerable long-term but I think their current crop of models is strong enough to weather them through for now. The Germans are profitable, as are the French, and Ford/GM, while weak, are far too large to go down quickly.
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Anyone got any idea who the most vunerable is?
I don't know if they are the most vulnerable, but this is breaking news:
www.cnbc.com/id/27063444
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Jaguar
Jaguar is a brand.
Owner/manufacturer is Tata of India who is unlikely to fail before other major Western manufacturers have bitten the dust.
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Jaguar is a brand. Owner/manufacturer is Tata of India >>
I would say that Jaguar is a manufacturing subsidiary of Tata, and should be fine as long as they are well financed by Tata. However they rely heavily on numerous component suppliers and could have issues if any of them fail.
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Chrysler is looking very dodgy. Poor sales in the UK is one thing, but they also have a range in the US that is looking very unappealing to changing tastes over there. Over here Jeep/Chrysler sales are down about 30% in YTD and over in the States they're also down over 30% this September compared to last. In terms of volume worldwide they sell far less than GM and Ford too. Mercedes got out just in time I think....
The US Government is unlikely to have the cash or determination to save Chrysler, preferring to save the best stuff for GM and Ford no doubt.
Fiat should be looking stronger right now, but UK sales are not that great (really don't know why) and that isn't a good omen.
Another punt that most will not have thought about is good old Morgan. They might well have an order book with X number of months waiting list, but I'm not sure they can stay profitable and maintain cash flow in these difficult times.
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It won't be FIAT. Surprisingly profitable, and with people likely to downsize, their range is focussed in this area, and as such likely to not be so hard hit. I think first to the wall will be Chrysler since the divergence from Mercedes. That said, I've no idea how profitable Merc is now apart too.
Other one may include smaller independents, like Proton or brands that are unprofitable under larger one's - e.g. SEAT under Skoda, or Saab under GM...
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Yep, Chrysler are in all sorts of bother. Failing US operations and no European success to prop them up, unlike Ford and GM.
Don't know why Fiat are even being mentioned. They're doing just fine according to The Economist and have staged a remarkable comeback in recent years. In fact, I can't think of any manufacturer with a line-up of cars (and warranties) better placed to attract those looking to save money.
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Don't know why Fiat are even being mentioned. They're doing just fine according to The Economist and have staged a remarkable comeback in recent years. In fact I can't think of any manufacturer with a line-up of cars (and warranties) better placed to attract those looking to save money.
The only ones really are Hyundai/Kia, with a similar range of strong vehicles, with an improving reputation generally (not that they ever had a bad rep, just a cheap one).
By rights, companies like these should do very well in a recession.
But Fiat do have an unfortunate habit of shooting themselves in the foot at every turn -- hopefully for them this won't happen again.
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Many firms,Fiat and Mitsubishi, for example,are just parts of a much larger conglomerate.Mercedes are kept afloat by their trucks-Renault and Citroen are already Government owned.Hyundai and Kia only produce a few vehicles compared with other companies.If Toyota ran all their vehicle divisions as seperate companies,they would take the first five sales positions in the Japanese market-even their worst-selling car outsells the current number two.
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Renault and Citroen are already Government owned.
Citroen failed years ago, and was taken over by Peugeot. But it is not government owned.
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Hyundai and Kia only produce a few vehicles compared with other companies <<
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Automaker
Not entirely true. Between them Hyundai/Kia produce 4 million vehicles per year. Whilst very profitable, in numbers terms the commercial vehicle market is small. And even then, looking at those figures Hyundai is one of the largest commercial vehicle manufacturers in the world anyway -- looks to me like the second or third largest bus manufacturer for instance.
Chrysler's 'thing' seems to be light commercial vehicles -- perhaps this will see them through the storm.
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If Toyota ran all their vehicle divisions asseperate companies they would take the first five sales positions in the Japanese market-even their worst-selling car outsells the current number two.
Toyota don't even have the top selling car in Japan, the Wagon R made by Suzuki is and has been for several years. Outside of Kei car rules the Honda Fit (Jazz) is the best selling car.
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Don't know why Fiat are even being mentioned.
Probably because their sales are falling faster than competitors like Kia/Hyundai, despite being ideally positioned to take advantage of the move to smaller cars.
Also because Fiat Group includes Ferrari / Maserati (not many city boys getting bonuses for a year or two now) and Alfa "where did our sales go" Romeo... And Fiat have a lot of fingers in heavy industrial and service industry pies, which exposes the group to all kinds.
Not to mention the fact that Chrysler keeps mooting a merger with Fiat Auto, which is the kiss of death in itself!!
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From Auto News Europe......
MILAN (Reuters) -- Fiat's chairman confirmed on Thursday the industrial group's targets for 2008, according to a spokeswoman.
Chairman Luca Cordero di Montezemolo made the confirmation at a briefing with Italian journalists at the Paris auto show, she said.
"We confirm the objectives," he was quoted as saying by the spokeswoman for Ferrari, where Montezemolo is also chairman.
Fiat is aiming for a trading profit of 3.4 billion euros ($4.74 billion) to 3.6 billion euros for 2008, among other targets.
Also Fiat on target for tough EU emissions controls in the coming years, with those that dont likely to have to pay a hefty tax per g of CO2 over an average.
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FIAT were not healthy when they were developing cars with GM. But GM were doing badly and FIAT forced them to buy out their share for quite a bit of money. That money seems to have been invested well and FIAT seems quite healthy.
The current Bravo was developed quickly and cheaply to replace the poorly received Stilo. And not only is the FIAT 500 really good and based on the Panda chassis, but FIAT got paid by Ford to help develop the new Ford Ka which FIAT will build. So I bet the 500 cost nothing in real terms after you take Ford's investment into account.
I too would say Chrysler.
Interestingly, after a shake-up of our company car scheme. Out goes a few marques (Jaguar/Land Rover not a surprise with the break from Ford) but also all of the GM cars like Saab and Vauxhall! In comes Audi, VW, BMW and Mercedes amongst others.
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"....Hyundai and Kia only produce a few vehicles compared with other companies..."
"According to the latest publishing of the Automotive News 2008 Global Data Book, the automaker [Hyundai-Kia] has impressively passed Honda to take 5th position."
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Also Fiat on target for tough EU emissions controls in the coming years with those that dont likely to have to pay a hefty tax per g of CO2 over an average.
That's not much of an issue: the politicians have caved in to industry pressure to take the sting out of the emission targets, according to George Monbiot in today's Grauniad: tinyurl.com/3rz3eo
The Germans talk green, but will use their clout within the EU to ensure that Mercedes, Audi and other pullotocrats are not facing big fines. Remember how the European Central Bank turned a blind eye when Germany exceeded its eurozone budget limits, and didn't impose the supposedly-mandatory fine?
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I don't see the Chinese lot at Longbridge, making very overpriced MGs, doing too well in a financial recession.
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There don't seem to be many independent makes any more as Volvo and Seat etc used to be. They are under the wing of giants like GM and live only as a name. Fiat always comes in for huge derision and this stems from the rust many suffered a few years ago. Makes come and go in the slamming stakes and mud sticks but I can't see any big manufacturer going out.
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Makes come and go in the slamming stakesand mud sticks but I can't see any big manufacturer going out.
Like others have said, I would be surprised if Chrysler is still here in a couple of years. I'll be sad to see them go, I love my 300C and my Pacifica.
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Like others have said I would be surprised if Chrysler is still here in a couple of years.
The Big 3 (Ford, GM, Chrysler) are all going to limp on for a while. Bush has just lobbed a small handout to tide them over for a while. ($25billion in a soft loan - see tinyurl.com/3rz3eo )
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I think you might see the two French companies becoming one. Other than that I think the prestidge brands - Land Rover, Jaguar and possibly the VAG group.
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snipquoteThe Big 3 (Ford GM Chrysler) are all going to limp on for a while. Bush has just lobbed a small handout to tide them over for a while. ($25billion in a soft loan - see tinyurl.com/3rz3eo )
Long term it doesn't look good though. They're just too small.
Maybe I'll be able to pick up one of these for buttons...
www.cars.justelite.net/2008/03/20/chrysler-llc-200...4
Edited by Dynamic Dave on 07/10/2008 at 22:14
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>The Big 3 (Ford, GM, Chrysler) are all going to limp on for a while. Bush has just lobbed a small handout..
The House of Representatives approved the loans by 370 votes to 58 - Bush did not lob a small handout.
The alternative was to allow huge layoffs in the highly unionised auto industry, spend twice as much on welfare cheques and condemn thousands of older workers to permanent unemployment. Neither the GOP or Dems wanted that so close to an election.
>see (link to car-bashing Grauniad article with paid-ad link to Auto Trader on same page)
Monbiot is a scientifically ignorant idiot who doesn't let facts get in the way of a hysterical eco opinion piece. Someone should set fire to his sandals.
Kevin...
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Monbiot is a scientifically ignorant idiot who doesn't let facts get in the way of a hysterical eco opinion piece. Someone should set fire to his sandals.
He talks good sense - read the article by any chance? We really shouldn't let out dislike of people get in the way of rational appraisal of what they have to say - not very scientific is it.
Edited by woodbines on 08/10/2008 at 00:48
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He talks good sense - read the article by any chance? We really shouldn't let out dislike of people get in the way of rational appraisal of what they have to say - not very scientific is it.
Hmmm... Apparently, because somebody once achieved 376 mpg by butchering an old Opel Rekord and using a lawnmower carburettor, he reckons all mass-produced cars today should have CO2 emissions less than 50g/km!
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Well, 99g CO2/km is already acheived - and proper, focused efforts to 'green' cars has only been going on for a few years - I could well imagine the 50g figure will be a fairly average figure in a few years.
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>He talks good sense - read the article by any chance? We really shouldn't let out dislike of people
>get in the way of rational appraisal of what they have to say - not very scientific is it.
Yes I did read the article, I read most of them, and I don't actually dislike Monbiot. Some of his rants can be quite entertaining if you take the time to cut through the carp.
Unfortunately, whenever he does stumble across what should be a valid point for serious discussion he doesn't recognise it. He immediately covers it in a layer of hysterical eco froth, dodgy statistics, conspiracy theories and misinterpreted science. This makes any rational appraisal extremely tiresome because you can't trust any references he quotes.
Time and time again his articles get torn to pieces in the feedback comments not because of the point he is making but because he can't seem to understand that using misleading references destroys the perception of his whole argument.
Until he realises that, he's an idiot who should have his sandals set alight. Something I would love to witness.
Kevin...
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Monbiot is a scientifically ignorant idiot who doesn't let facts get in the way of a hysterical eco opinion piece. Someone should set fire to his sandals. Kevin...
Monbiot is a berk. He has stated that air travel is as bad as child sex abuse. Whenever I think maybe these enviros have a point they show their true colours and bring me to my senses.
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Heh heh RR...
I stopped being a proper lefty as such in the early eighties, and it was all the work of the left. Jack Dromey bawling on the South Bank that Mrs Thatcher had done more damage here than the Luftwaffe... the intellectual left, my own friends and comrades, being unbelievably halfwitted over the Falklands, again because of this rather sexist obsession with the person of the then prime minister (no hero of mine I can tell you)... and visits to soi-disant socialist countries... I can put two and two and two together and make five or so (note to NC: is this right?) as well as the next person...
Monbiot is a soft ideologue. But then most people are in one way or another. My distaste for him and others of his ilk from the carphound Nader onward is rendered suspect though by my own perverse love for the motorised four-wheeled cart...
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this stems from the rust many suffered a few years ago. >>
it's more than a few years ago - nearly 40 years - although you may be thinking of the Lancia Beta and Alfasud..:-)
A neighbour across the road had a Beta, which he actually loved. Now, at the age of 86, he just bought a six-year-old Nissan Almera.
Fiat and Saab established a joint relationship in 1975 to produce a new luxury hatchback, the Lancia Delta/Saab 600, with some of the development involving new methods of rustproofing.
Later models to be conceived included the Lancia Thema, Fiat Croma, Saab 9000 and the Alfa Romeo 164.
I had two Fiats in the 1980s, a 1.4 Miafiori and a Regata 1.6S; neither had any rust problems whatsoever and, furthermore, each proving very reliable over successive three-year ownerships.
Edited by Stuartli on 07/10/2008 at 21:42
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snipquoteLater models to be conceived included the Lancia Thema Fiat Croma Saab 9000 and the Alfa Romeo 164.
SAAB had anti-rust measures long before 1975 - in the 60's they had plastic liners in the wheel arches when FORD , Vauxhall were still selling replacement wings for 3 year old that had rusted through.
Edited by Dynamic Dave on 07/10/2008 at 22:14
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Saab did indeed have rust proofing measures but at times they also had some pretty poor paint work in the late 70's. I had a 900 which had rust bubbles on the roof as well as more usual places. resprayed under warranty but I later saw it looking pretty scabby. My neighbour was offered an excellent deal by the local Saab agent to change his also rusty car.
I am not sure how independent we regard Subaru but I would have thought it looked vulnerable. Small numbers of cars, unshared technology, niche market and thirsty engines. Now disappearance of Subaru would be a real loss, especially for a number of BR's (me included).
alfalfa
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I will be devastated if Subary went to the wall. But I think they do better in the US than Europe so should survive as they are small. Chrysler should be allowed to wither and die quickly - there is no reason for their cars at all.
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"There don't seem to be many independent makes any more as Volvo and Seat etc used to be.S
SEAT originally manufacturered FIAT old designs so probably better off under VAG ownership. I remember from decades ago the links they had with Porsche to try to flog cars! I think they were owned by Audi and this transferred to the parent company later.
As for "I think you might see the two French companies becoming one."
I cannot see PAG and Renault/Nissan joining up.
And if this "Other than that I think the prestidge brands - Land Rover, Jaguar and possibly the VAG group. " implies VAG are vulnerable, I doubt it. And with Porsche owning most of VW they wouldn't let that happen ;-)
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I'm sure Toyota took a significant stake in Subaru.....or did I dream it!
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All manufactures who do not have a good market outside Europe & N.America, will suffer.
So all Japanese brands should do fine.
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Subaru are part of Fuji Heavy Industries, not a small concern overall, and sell well in the States and Australasia. They may well disappear from Europe when we are all taxed into bland euroboxes.
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All manufactures who do not have a good market outside Europe & N.America will suffer. So all Japanese brands should do fine.
As should Renault.
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All manufactures who do not have a good market outside Europe & N.America will suffer. So all Japanese brands should do fine.
Indeed, likewise the Koreans. The weakness of certain US and EU manufacturers will also potentially give the Chinese the breathing space they require.
Chrysler are stuffed quite honestly whichever way you look at it.
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It was reported in The Sunderland Echo that the Nissan Plant has cut back on production of
The Micra and The Note but is working flat out on the Qashqai, by working 3 shifts.
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Well well well. Lookee here:
www.honestjohn.co.uk/news/item.htm?id=5278
Fiat is doing OK in the UK.
P.S. - Mods - has one of my posts been removed from this thread? Looks like it to me. Any particular reason?
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I can see four visible postings on here from you. None that are "hidden" from general view. I certainly haven't removed any !
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P.S. - Mods - has one of my posts been removed from this thread? Any particular reason?
How about www.honestjohn.co.uk/forum/post/index.htm?t=42612
Webmaster.
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Thanks for the sarcasm, webmaster. I'm usually spot on when it comes to this, and must have erred on this occasion due to being in a hurry. Perhaps a simple snip and a friendly nudge might have been sufficient.
Nice way to treat your new contributors on a first offence. I most humbly apologise and if it happens again you can horsewhip me across Reading Bridge.
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Papers say GM could run out of money in the next few months
Ford & Chrysler said to be similarly challenged.
Trade suppliers are having diffficulty getting their invoices insured against the "big boys" going bust.
No credit insurance? it will only take 1 or 2 suppliers to stop supplying 1 key component manufacturer to stop the production line e.g. supplier of steering wheel / electronics module.....................
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Opel have apparantly gone cap in hand to the German government for a multi billion pound bailout as they can on longer rely on GM to provide the cash.
I though that sort of thing was against EU rules?
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I would say that EU rules are for the good times - Opel is a major part of European industrial infrastructure.
PS
Going to move this into the Credit Crunch thread shortly - keeps it all together and a strong motoring link as well.
Edited by Pugugly on 15/11/2008 at 20:29
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Going to move this into the Credit Crunch thread shortly
or maybe here?
www.honestjohn.co.uk/forum/post/index.htm?t=67928&...f
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Silly me - I'd missed that - you have a better memory than me.
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No credit insurance? it will only take 1 or 2 suppliers to stop supplying 1 key component manufacturer to stop the production line e.g. supplier of steering wheel / electronics module.....................
wont happen. Credit insurance or not - NO supplier would dare not supply to GM or Ford. Do that to those two and you can kiss all your orders goodbye to ALL customers (automotive or aerospace) across the globe now and till the end of time itself.
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I think the French makes will consolidate.
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French Economy is in growth !
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By the slenderest of margins. The thing with the french economy is that it just limps along, in its regulated way. Never really excelling much, but neither doing particularly badly either. The capitalist model is more regulated in France - and a good thing IMO.
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More fool us for having a "dynamic" economy.
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More fool us for having a "dynamic" economy.
But at least we can be proud of the fact that we haven't inflicted Citroens, Renaults and Peugeots on the world. [At least, not for many years.]
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>> More fool us for having a "dynamic" economy. But at least we can be proud of the fact that we haven't inflicted Citroens Renaults and Peugeots on the world. [At least not for many years.]
No we inflicted much worse cars on the world and the world avoided them... and so did we eventually!
Same will happen to the French, Italians and some German brands if they continue on their current paths.
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I would sooner have run a BL car than most of the rubbish coming out of France during the same time period.
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I've just realized that if forced to choose between a C5 and a 75 - I'd still take the 'Over....
Scary....
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The car industry is a very complex, powerful, constantly changing world cartel. It will survive. And it will use its considerable muscle to ensure that we too survive, not too wounded financially, to carry on feeding it.
So comforting, having the powers that be on your side.
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